Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 150954
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
354 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Several 00z regional RAOBS sampled historical seasonal extremes
in low level thermal profiles and this will support potential for
record high temps across NE OK today. Expanding and persistent
low cloudiness from SE OK into W AR will be the only limiting
factor to more widespread record temps. Breezy south winds will
also be maintained through the day which, along with the
unseasonable warmth, will raise fire weather concerns.

Strong cold front enters NE OK by late afternoon and clears the
forecast area around sunrise Friday. Showers will develop in a
post frontal band and spread southeastward with time. There is a
brief window where temps may fall below freezing across NW AR late
tonight to allow light freezing rain however this potential
appears very low at this point. Sharply colder temps will prevail
Friday.

Precip is expected to develop again Friday night along the
elevated frontal zone ahead of a fast moving subtle wave. Higher
precip chances will be over southern locations with much lower and
chances and lighter amounts further north. Temps will also hover
around freezing across northern areas as the precip expands providing
another brief window for light freezing rain from NE OK into far
NW AR. Any accumulations are likely to be very light.

Temps quickly moderate Sunday as pressure falls intensify across
the Plains with a return to unseasonably warm temps by Monday.
Moisture return will also be well underway and scattered
convection is possible beginning Sunday night and continuing
through Monday. The next cold front is currently timed to arrive
Monday night into Tuesday with increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances. The potential for widespread (and welcome) rains
continues to be shown in the latest model suite.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  35  44  34 /  10  60   0  20
FSM   75  46  49  38 /  10  60  20  50
MLC   76  41  45  36 /  10  30  10  60
BVO   81  32  43  29 /   0  40   0  20
FYV   73  37  44  33 /  10  70  10  30
BYV   74  35  42  31 /  10  70  10  20
MKO   77  39  45  35 /  10  60  10  40
MIO   77  32  42  32 /  10  60   0  10
F10   78  37  44  36 /   0  50  10  50
HHW   72  47  50  40 /  10  20  10  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....07



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.