Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301945
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NE AND EXTENDING INTO MO...WITH HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SURFACE/850 MB
FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE
KS/OK BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS) SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
DON`T APPEAR OVERLY HIGH...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT/CELL TRAINING WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE`LL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LOWER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  95  77  93 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   73  95  74  93 /  20  20  20  30
MLC   74  94  76  91 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   74  96  73  91 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   69  90  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   72  88  73  87 /  20  40  40  50
MKO   74  92  74  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIO   73  93  74  89 /  10  30  40  40
F10   74  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   73  93  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....18


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