Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 151747
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VFR VIS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT
CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO IFR CONDITIONS AS THE
PRECIP SHIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO RECOVER INTO
MVFR BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND TO TWEAK AFTERNOON
SKY/WIND GRIDS. THE REST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  66  84 /  40  30  10  20
FSM   64  74  64  80 /  70  50  20  20
MLC   64  74  65  80 /  70  40  10  10
BVO   62  79  62  87 /  20  20  10  20
FYV   61  73  60  80 /  70  40  20  20
BYV   60  72  61  82 /  50  40  20  20
MKO   63  75  63  82 /  70  40  10  20
MIO   63  77  63  85 /  40  30  10  20
F10   64  75  65  81 /  70  30  10  10
HHW   63  76  65  80 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20
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