Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 262108
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
408 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

Currently a weak frontal boundary extends along the Interstate 44
corridor with dewpoints south of the boundary rising into the low
to mid 70s. Furthermore, 12z regional soundings sampled a broad
region of steep lapse rates with resultant high potential
instability across much of the forecast area. This instability is
currently capped and is expected to remain so through tonight. The
exception will be in vicinity of the aforementioned boundary late
tonight as upglide may be sufficient to realized a few
thunderstorms from far NE OK into far NW AR. Any storm which does
form will have potential to be strong.

The main severe weather focus will take shape during the day on
Saturday and continue through Saturday night. Data remain
consistent in developing extreme instability amidst strong deep
layer shear profiles. This environment will remain capped through
much of the day with convective initiation focusing on the cold
front and dryline boundaries. Furthermore a larger convective
complex passing across KS and western MO is likely to place an
outflow boundary into NE OK and far NW AR by late afternoon.
Placement and orientation of these boundaries will be instrumental
in convective placement and evolution, and will also be key in
what severe hazards are realized. A favored scenario is initial
supercellular development capable all severe hazards with a local
tornado threat especially in vicinity of any outflow boundary.
Storms may then evolve into broken LEWPs capable of destructive
winds. Regardless of the exact scenario, the environment will
favor significant severe weather potential which should be the
focus of any awareness messages. Outdoor venues and recreational
activities should understand the weather hazard potential and have
a severe weather safety plan.

Severe weather continues through Saturday night while progressing
from north to south with dry and cooler conditions Sunday and
Monday. The pattern transitions to that typical of early summer
by mid to late next week with increasing moisture amidst weak
flow and subtle forcing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  65  81 /  10  30  50   0
FSM   72  89  70  82 /  10  10  80  10
MLC   74  89  68  80 /  10  20  70  10
BVO   64  89  62  81 /  10  30  40   0
FYV   67  85  64  75 /  20  20  70  10
BYV   68  85  65  76 /  30  30  70  10
MKO   71  88  66  79 /  10  20  70  10
MIO   67  86  63  79 /  20  40  60   0
F10   70  89  66  79 /  10  20  70   0
HHW   73  88  71  81 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07


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