Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 231754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME SCATTERED VFR CEILINGS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP THIS MORNING WAS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. ALSO THIS MORNING...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN COLORADO ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE TULSA
FORECAST CWA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVES WITH
CONDITIONS OF CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-20 MPH. THE
WAVE EAST OF THE CWA HAD SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH FROM NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP HAD EXITED. A ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER COULD REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MADISON/CARROLL COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.

THIS AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE CWA. GREATER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG/NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE. JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD CREATE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUS...WILL ADD THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH OSAGE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND 21Z AND PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40+MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES. WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA...THIS COULD LESSEN THE GUSTS SOME
FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SHORT WINDOW FROM ABOUT 21Z-01Z THAT WINDS OF 35-NEAR 40
MPH...WITH AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO OVER 40 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING COULD GUST
UP IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS. THUS...FROM
CURRENT THINKING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NOW.

ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES COULD BECOME BROKEN TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES
OVERHEAD...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LOW 70S
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH MINOR TWEAKS
TO SKY/TEMP GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  30  51 /  30   0   0  10
FSM   39  56  31  53 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   37  58  31  54 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   35  55  24  50 /  50   0   0  10
FYV   34  50  25  47 /  50   0   0  10
BYV   35  47  26  46 /  70  10   0  10
MKO   36  57  29  51 /  30   0   0  10
MIO   34  51  26  47 /  80   0   0  10
F10   37  57  31  52 /  20   0   0  10
HHW   39  60  33  58 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.