Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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203
FXUS64 KTSA 040543
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR and LIFR conditions across all sites overnight with periods of
light rain, drizzle and fog. Ceilings and visibilities will be slow
to improve on Sunday but subsidence behind wave exiting during the
afternoon should clear skies from west to east 18z-00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

UPDATE...

The main adjustment to the forecast was to PoPs for tonight. See
discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Looking aloft, a trough axis extends from Central Canada clear
down to the Baja. The upper trough is expected to split in two, as
energy slides by to our north tonight, and the upper low down over
the Baja at the base of the larger scale trough gets cut off from
the flow. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes, with low pressure troughing over the
Northern High Plains. Light rain that spread over the region today
into this evening was in association with the warm conveyor ahead
of the broad upper trough. This rain is shifting east this
evening. Lift in association with the northern shortwave trough
should spread across Kansas and far northern Oklahoma later on
tonight before ending Sunday morning. With this reasoning in mind,
I have made adjustments to PoPs for tonight, gradually decreasing
them with time along and south of I-40. After a brief lull this
evening, PoPs ramp back up north of I-44 later on tonight as lift
from the upper wave spreads across. With thermal profiles warm and
instability lacking, precip should stay just plain rain.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...69



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