Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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167
FXUS64 KTSA 240438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1138 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Expect MVFR cigs to develop overnight...with an increase in
shower/thunderstorms Tuesday morning as storms drop south
out of Kansas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The last of the significant MCV generated convection over southern
LeFlore County is finally on the down swing and also on the verge
of moving out of the forecast area. A few very small
showers/thunderstorms continue to the west of this main area of
convection in the vicinity of a subtle boundary stretching east to
west across far southeast Oklahoma. Mid level subsidence in the
wake of the MCV should keep much of the area largely convection
free for most of the rest of the night, with an increase in
thunderstorm potential toward daybreak across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas from expected overnight storms in western
Kansas and also west of Highway 75 from the ongoing storms in west
Texas. The main grid changes involved retooling the POP/Wx/QPF grids
according to this thinking, with minor changes elsewhere according
to current trends. Updates out very soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will mainly impact KMLC over the next
few hours before dissipating. Additional showers/storms possible
after 06z...and again Tuesday afternoon. Mainly MVFR cigs
expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MCV near the northeast corner of our forecast area continues to
drift east with an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms
near and west of the center. This is forcing an outflow boundary
south across northeast Oklahoma and nortwest Arkansas. Expect this
activity to slowly diminish over the next few hours, and attention
will then turn to convection developing way out west along the
dryline. This activity may again form into an MCS overnight, which
may make a run at our forecast area late tonight and Tuesday
morning. Additional development will be possible Tuesday afternoon
and evening along residual outflow boundaries.

Wednesday looks to be the quietest day of the week, but still may
see isolated shower and thunderstorm development. Convective
chances will increase once again late Thursday through Friday as
the main upper level storm system lifts northeast into the Plains.
This time frame looks to be the most likely period for organized
severe weather in our forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will lessen over the weekend, but
at least isolated storm coverage is likely each day, with
convective chances likely to persist even into next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  82  72  88 /  50  50  30  20
FSM   66  82  71  87 /  30  60  30  20
MLC   69  81  72  85 /  50  60  30  20
BVO   65  81  70  88 /  50  50  30  20
FYV   62  79  67  84 /  30  60  30  20
BYV   62  79  69  86 /  30  60  30  20
MKO   68  81  70  86 /  30  60  30  20
MIO   65  80  71  86 /  50  60  30  20
F10   69  80  71  86 /  50  50  30  20
HHW   69  82  72  86 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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