Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 170854
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm/windy conditions expected today ahead of strong
cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight. A
few widely scattered showers will be possible this morning as strong
warm advection continues ahead of system. Temperatures currently
running near normal highs for this time of year. Low clouds should
keep temperatures from getting too out of hand this afternoon,
however still expect highs around 80 degrees along and west of
highway 75. This area will also see the main fire weather threat
with RH values falling to around 50 percent and possibly a little
lower across Pawnee and Osage counties.

As mentioned previously, cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma
late tonight in association with vigorous upper wave moving out
of the northern Rockies into the Central Plains. Overall precipitation
chances will remain low with only a few widely scattered showers
possible across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Saturday
morning. The main concern will be the strong winds behind the front
into Saturday morning with gusts likely in the 40 to 45 mph range,
especially across northeast Oklahoma. For now will hold off on
issuing a wind advisory, but at least portions of the area will
likely be needed starting either late tonight or Saturday morning.
Also, a more widespread fire weather threat is expected over much
of the area as a drier air-mass moves in behind front. Winds will
begin to slowly subside Saturday evening into the overnight hours
with surface high building over western Texas/Oklahoma by Sunday
morning.

Another cold front is expected on Tuesday, but the heavier precipitation
is expected to remain well south near the TX/LA coast. No significant
rain chances are expected through next weekend as a series of dry fronts
move through. Ongoing drought conditions will likely continue to worsen,
spreading into eastern Oklahoma by this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  50  58  33 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   75  60  63  37 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   77  56  62  34 /  20   0  10   0
BVO   78  47  57  29 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   69  57  57  30 /  20  10  20   0
BYV   69  58  58  35 /  20  10  20   0
MKO   77  54  60  34 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   74  51  56  32 /  20  10  20   0
F10   78  53  60  34 /  20   0  10   0
HHW   76  62  66  35 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12



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