Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 221536
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016
12 Soundings indicate tight moisture gradient near the Red River
this morning, evidenced by precipitable water values over 2 inches
at SHV/DFW to well under an inch at SGF/OUN. Upper impulse lifting
northeast out of Mexico should help low level flow back and begin
lifting this deeper moisture north through the day, with showers
and thunderstorm chances increasing mainly south of I-40 through
00z. Dew points beginning to respond as well, with a more humid
afternoon in store for much of the area. Forecast is trending well
overall, with some minor changes to sky condition made for morning
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 707 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Main challenges for morning TAFs are ceilings and precipitation
chances. Clouds will increase through the day...though all the TAF
sites expected to stay VFR through mid afternoon/early evening.
Best chance for aftn storms seem to be at MLC before 00z...and
just used prob groups for the AR TAFs after 06z. MVFR/IFR ceilings
possible after 06z at many of the TAF sites as low clouds move
into the area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/
Low level moisture starting to surge back north through central/
northern Texas early this morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will be possible by mid/late morning across southeast Oklahoma,
otherwise clouds will begin to increase from north to south this
afternoon. Better precipitation chances will be tonight into
Tuesday as upper wave approaches from the southwest and as
stronger low level jet develops.
Warming trend will continue through mid week with a significant warm
up expected on Wednesday as upper high builds across the southeast
states. High temperatures will likely climb into the mid 90s across
most of eastern Oklahoma with heat indices around the century
mark. The good news is this will likely be the hottest day this
week with a downward trend in temperatures during the latter part
of the week.
Upper high will begin to weaken by Thursday as upper disturbance
shifts east out of the four corners region. Cold front will move
into northeast Oklahoma late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Boundary is expected to stall over the region and provide
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday/Friday
with at least low precipitation chances persisting through the
weekend. Mostly cloudy conditions will likely keep high temperatures
below normal through the extended periods.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 87 74 89 77 / 10 40 50 20
FSM 84 72 89 74 / 10 40 40 20
MLC 86 73 89 74 / 30 40 30 20
BVO 87 69 88 73 / 0 30 50 20
FYV 80 69 82 70 / 0 30 50 20
BYV 83 68 84 73 / 10 20 50 20
MKO 86 72 87 74 / 10 40 40 20
MIO 86 70 87 73 / 10 20 50 20
F10 86 72 89 73 / 10 40 40 20
HHW 83 71 91 72 / 50 40 20 10