Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 131148
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Stratus has spread across much of eastern Oklahoma this morning,
with some mid cloud present over northwest Arkansas as well. MVFR
ceilings are possible intermittently across any of the OK
terminals through this afternoon with the best chance at KMLC and
KFSM this morning. By this evening, MVFR ceilings are expected at
all sites, with showers possible at KMLC and the AR terminals.
Elevated instability is sufficient to support some thunder as
well, but this would likely be after midnight and confidence isn`t
high enough to include in this forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Seasonal temps expected today as increasing cloud cover acts to
limit warming. Scattered showers are likely to develop south of
the area and spread ENE late this afternoon and evening within
zone of strengthening moisture return and on the periphery of the
expanding warm layer aloft. Low level flow veers considerably on
Wed and low clouds should erode from west to east with temps
warming well above normal especially across eastern OK. Increasing
winds and the warmer temps will raise fire weather concerns with
relatively high afternoon humidity values helping temper
conditions.

Warm sector fully envelops the region on Thursday and near record
high temps are forecast. Sided toward a drier scenario for the day
on Thursday with the focus for precip being the strong frontal
passage Thursday evening - overnight. Post frontal boundary layer temps
continue to look too warm for winter weather concerns Thurs night
into Friday. High temps will be some 30-40 degrees cooler for
most locations on Friday.

The ongoing pattern change will feature more troughing over the
western U.S. and this looks to persist through at least early
next week. This is a departure from what has been observed for
much of the winter season and is likely to a more active flow
regime. An initial influence of this unsettled pattern is the
forecast Friday night into Saturday with latest data showing a
more substantial post frontal precip band developing and passing
mainly across southern portions of the forecast area. Current
forecast will keep temps warm enough for all liquid but this time
frame will need to be followed. Precip chances continue into early
next week with moderating temps ahead of the next cold front
possibly arriving toward the end of this forecast period. The
pattern of troughing to our west and a reinforcing push of colder
air early next week will be a focus for upcoming forecasts.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....06
LONG TERM....07

CORFIDI



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