Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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164
FXUS64 KTSA 252333
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
There will be another day or two of heat index values above 105
degrees, with a pattern change by late Thursday into Friday.
Afternoon water vapor imagery show a series of upper storm systems
in the Canadian provinces, and the lead shortwave trough will
help push a cold front south across the central Plains on
Wednesday and into Oklahoma for Thursday.

Heat advisory will remain in effect on Wednesday for most of
northeast Oklahoma and portions of western Arkansas as max temps
climb into the upper 90s to around 100. Showers and thunderstorms
will form along the boundary Wed afternoon and evening, from WI
through eastern Kansas. Chances are the storms will stay north of
the OK/KS border during the overnight hours on Wed night/Thu
morning. The NAM is faster with the frontal progression than the
slower ECMWF. We may see some showers and storms early Thu morning
but at the least, there will be cloud cover spreading across
northeast Oklahoma from the KS convection, and possibly an outflow
boundary. It should heat up south of the boundary on Thursday
though, and for this reason, we will go ahead and extend the heat
advisory for counties roughly along and south of the I-40
corridor.

The better chance for rain and storms may hold off until Thursday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler
on Friday and this trend will continue the next several days, with
highs dropping back to the upper 80s/lower 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  78  99  80 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   98  76  97  77 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   94  78  96  79 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   99  75 100  77 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   92  72  93  75 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   94  73  95  75 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   95  75  96  77 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   95  75  96  78 /   0   0  10  20
F10   95  77  97  77 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   95  75  96  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053-072>076.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ054>067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10



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