Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221140
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the day today. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase towards sunset at the Oklahoma
sites, and later tonight at the Arkansas sites. MVFR conditions
are expected to develop at the Oklahoma sites by late tonight
following the passage of a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Most of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will try to squeeze another
dry day in Today. However, a showers and a few thunderstorms could move
into portions of eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, mainly west of highway 75.

An upper level shortwave currently over western Colorado will sweep across
the region tonight along with an associated surface cold front. These
features will produce the lift for the showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon into Tonight. The chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will persist into Tuesday as a more pronounced upper level trof moves through the
plains. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity as instability will
be on the low end. Rainfall amounts of around one-quarter inch will be common
during this time, which should not cause any additional flooding concerns.

Dry weather is expected mid to late week with the area in between storm systems.
The chances of showers and thunderstorms ramp up again Friday night and persist
for a good chunk of the Memorial Day holiday weekend as a series of upper level
shortwaves slowly push a surface boundary across the region. The threat for severe
weather will also increase during this time as will the potential for locally
heavy rain.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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