Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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996
FXUS64 KTSA 290446
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will result in reduced
ceilings and visibilities through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1003 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

..UPDATE...
This evening a warm frontal boundary had entered into Southeast
Oklahoma while a cold frontal boundary had pushed southeast into
Northwest Oklahoma and Southeast Kansas. These two boundaries were
associated with a surface boundary over Southwest Texas and an
upper low moving into Northern New Mexico. In response...scattered
showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with a couple storms in Northwest
Arkansas quickly becoming strong to potentially severe.

Through the overnight hours...the warm frontal boundary is
expected to lift a little further north to perhaps near/slightly
north of the Interstate 40 corridor while the cold push in
Southeast Kansas moves into the northern part of Northeast
Oklahoma. This will allow for thunderstorms to continue to develop
and spread across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...with
the greater potential north of the warm front. Mostly elevated
convection late this evening should continue overnight.
However...any storms that can develop and be rooted with the warm
front could have the potential to become more surface based. The
result will continue severe potentials overnight with large
hail...damaging winds and also a small tornado threat across the
CWA.

Late tonight into Saturday morning...convection out west should
also spread into CWA and transform the severe potential into more
of a large hail and damaging wind threat. Also...tonight into
Saturday with the multiple rounds of thunderstorms
forecast...periods of heavy rainfall increasing flash flooding
conditions will become possible. Thus...will keep the current
flash flood watch as is.

Temperatures overnight...should remain on the warm side within the
warm sector across Southeast Oklahoma...while parts of Northeast
Oklahoma could fall into the lower 50s behind the cold push moving
toward the region.

In response to the events for tonight...for the evening update...
have added minor tweaks to the overnight grids based on current
trends as the current forecast seems to be in fairly good shape.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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