Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY TEMPORARILY DROP
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
850MB THERMAL FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE STILL LYING TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST OVER KANSAS. THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. A MORE SWRLY DIRECTION IS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST WARMER TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL. NONETHELESS...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LOWER...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...THUS HIGHS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED AS WELL. THIS ADJUSTMENT ALSO NECESSITATES A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH DOWN INTO
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF A COOL FRONT.
HIGHS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE CENTURY MARK. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO
OUR AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NERLY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE BEST COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO
BE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE KS/MO BORDERS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06




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