Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281645
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR cigs affecting a few of the terminals will lift during the
early to mid afternoon, although they are likely to return to all
except BVO late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Winds will
remain at 10 kts or below, with prevailing directions from the S
to SW. In addition, isolated TSRA could develop through tonight,
but chances of affecting anyone terminal are too low to mention in
the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A fairly quiet and seasonably warm day continues to look on tap
today. Ongoing low clouds will tend to diminish during the late
morning and into the early afternoon, with the clearest skies
located to the north of the moisture gradient in northeast
Oklahoma. Main changes to the sky cover were to show a better
decreasing trend into mid afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorm
development remains unlikely given the large scale subsidence
across the region, although will maintain the going slight chances
along and south of the aforementioned moisture gradient. Minor
modifications were made to the northern edge of the mentionable
POPs and also delayed their mention until the afternoon hours.
Other forecast elements appear on track. Updates already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs should persist for the OK terminals (except KBVO)
through much of this morning. MVFR cigs will also develop
into northwest AR over the next few hours and should last
into the afternoon before scattering out. Isolated thunderstorm
develop is possible later this afternoon and overnight...but
confidence is too low to include in TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low continues to move northeast this morning with weak
subsidence over the area in its wake. Push of drier low level air
into northeast OK will establish a weak boundary somewhere in the
vicinity of I44. Limited threat of isolated storms near and
southeast of this boundary, but better chances will occur
overnight into Sunday as low level warm advection increases.

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist for
the first half of next week. Model data continues to show a weak
impulse moving through in westerly flow potentially leading to an
uptick in precip coverage Monday. A more substantial upper level
trough will push through the northern plains by mid week with a
cold front moving through the area, perhaps leading to another
uptick in rain chances Wednesday before a drier airmass finally
spread south and brings a more stable regime at the end of the
week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



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