Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 192004
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND DAYTIME HEATING HAVE
SPARKED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOVEMENT GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. THE STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA PRIOR TO SUNSET...SO WILL CARRY A SMALL POP THROUGH MID
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE STORY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LEADING TO SEASONALLY HOT...HUMID WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS LATER THIS
WEEK...WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING THE 105 HEAT ADVISORY CRITERION.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINE NECESSITIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...TOWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ENOUGH TO
THE EAST TO ALLOW A FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD INCREASE STORM
POTENTIAL AND LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN IDEAL SO WILL KEEP THINGS HOT
AND DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  97  76  98 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   73  97  74  98 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   74  96  75  96 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   71  98  74  99 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   69  94  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   70  95  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  96  74  96 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  97  73  97 /  10   0   0  10
F10   73  96  75  96 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   73  96  74  97 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22




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