Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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409
FXUS64 KTSA 300134
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few thunderstorms continue near Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma
this evening, generally moving slowly to the northwest. Although
gusty wind potential will continue, the likelihood of anything
damaging has diminished considerably with the loss of daytime
heating. The remaining thunderstorms should dwindle in coverage
through the rest of the evening. A small chance of additional
development will exist toward daybreak northwest of Interstate 44
on the western periphery of the upper ridge, but the greater
potential will be north and also west of the area. Minor tweaks
were made to the POPs for the rest of the night, as well as the
Sky cover to generally show less cloud cover, especially in
southeast Oklahoma, than previously forecast. Low temperatures
look on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection should continue its downward trend in both
coverage and intensity through early evening. Patchy fog again
possible tonight especially for terminals which received light
rain this afternoon. Generally persistent afternoon conditions
tomorrow with isolated / scattered afternoon storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Coverage of convection this afternoon has been reinforced by
several outflow boundaries...mainly across northeast Oklahoma. As
has been the case the past several days...expect storm coverage to
diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Scope of forecast
largely unchanged with this issuance. Uncapped...moist
environment will stay in place for at least the next several
days...which will maintain daily thunderstorm chances.
Thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday likely to be
enhanced...especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas as a surface boundary approaches from the northeast.
Thunderstorm chances will decrease from north to south towards the
end of the week...as drier air will begin to filter across the
area along with upper ridging that will strengthen over the
plains. Settled conditions are expected through the
weekend...however at that time upper ridge becomes suppressed and
improved flow will be just to the north of the area. Moisture will
also begin to return at that time....and the next chances for rain
and thunder may come early next week as another cold front
approaches the region.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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