117
FXUS63 KDLH 310935
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
435 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
  expected today and will stall out over northwest Wisconsin.
  Showers and storms will persist in Wisconsin into Saturday.

- Additional rain totals up to 1.25 inches possible across
  portions of northwest Wisconsin, which could lead to localized
  ponding.

- Heaviest rainfall and greatest severe risk has shifted west
  for Sunday, though portions of the Northland could still see
  isolated severe storms and minor flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The front that is bringing scattered showers to the Northland
continues to trek east this morning but is expected to stall
along the North Shore and down the I-35 corridor. There may be a
lull in precipitation in the late morning and early afternoon,
but as instability increases and moisture continues to be
advected northeastward across northwestern Wisconsin, leading to
a second round of showers and storms in the late afternoon and
tonight. Severe storms are not expected due to modest
instability.

As the border is pushed out of the Northland, there will be a
brief dry period Saturday evening before the next system moves
into the Northern Plains. The track for this low remains
uncertain, but models show a progressive westerly shift. This
affects both the hydrological concerns and severe weather
chances for the Northland. Best chances for severe weather has
shifted west, but there may be isolated severe storms with large
hail and damaging winds for northeastern Minnesota and far
northwestern Wisconsin. The axis for the highest rainfall
amounts has also shifted west and slightly decreased. Global
models and ensembles are also disagreeing on the northern track
of the low. Specifically, the GFS/GEFS show the low moving in a
greater northerly direction which would cause the Northland to
receive less rainfall, while others show us getting a more
direct hit. Despite this, there is a likely chance (60-80%)
that the majority of northeast Minnesota will see an inch or
more - especially towards northwest Minnesota. Soils are still
saturated (80-100% moisture content) across much of northern
Minnesota, and additional significant rainfall in these areas
could lead to ponding or minor flooding.

Once again, we will see a short dry period before another
system moves through for the mid week. Models really start to
diverge at this point, but there is the potential for more
moderate rain.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to make
their way east. Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities are
possible in the heaviest part of the line. After the line
passes, conditions should return to VFR. However, patchy fog is
developing across northwest Minnesota behind the showers, and
opted to add a couple TEMPOS where fog could form. HYR will get
two rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls over
northwestern Wisconsin this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Winds primarily out of the southwest at 5-15 kts will persist
for the next couple days. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be present throughout the weekend. Some
storms on Sunday could be strong near the Twin Ports with small
hail and strong winds. Strong winds along the North Shore could
posse a hazard to small craft Sunday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML