134
FXUS64 KHGX 252349
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Tranquil but hot weather conditions are expected to prevail for the
rest of the weekend as broad high pressure remains over Mexico
and capping dominates the local weather pattern.

Although slightly drier air is expected this evening into tonight
along with a bit of a breeze, conditions will remain rather warm and
heat related impacts can still occur. The lows tonight will be in
the mid to upper 70s with some coastal locations staying in the low
80s. Skies will become overcast tonight into Sunday morning and
gradually lift and scatter out after sunrise. Winds will strengthen
during the morning as a low level jet moves over Southeast TX. By
Sunday afternoon, the highs will be back in the low to mid 90s. The
risk for heat related impacts is expected to rise as a surge of low
level moisture increases PWs up into the 1.5-2.0 inch range and
dewpoints stay in the mid to upper 80s for much of the day. Several
locations across Southeast TX may experience heat indices between
106-110 deg F on Sunday, thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
much of Southeast Texas.

It is important you take the necessary precautions and/or
make the proper preparations if you plan to work or spend time
outdoors. Remember to practice heat safety and stay hydrated, avoid
strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, move
activities indoors if necessary, and never leave children or pets
unattended in vehicles. Remember, if it is too hot for the palm of
your hand, then the ground is too hot for your pets` paws.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The strong mid/upper ridge over Mexico will back westward while a
ridge axis over western CONUS will push eastward, resulting in a
WNW UL flow pattern through at least the first half of the week.
Mid/upper heights will slowly decrease, likely helping to dial
down the heat as the week progresses. That being said, Memorial
Day will be quite hot with widespread inland temperatures in the
mid 90s. A few spots could reach the upper 90s while the coast
remains in the upper 80s to near 90. 70s dew points will push heat
index values well over 100F and possibly over 110F. Our
experimental HeatRisk guidance is showing an Extreme Risk (Level 4
of 4) of excessive heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued for
Monday across much of our inland CWA. Practicing heat safety will
be must, especially if you plan on spending time outdoors for the
holiday. In addition, there is an elevated risk of rip currents.
Swim with caution (and preferably near a life guard and away from
piers and jetties) if you`re at the beach on Memorial Day.

As mentioned above, the heat should slowly ease as the week
progresses. By the middle to later portion of the week, inland
afternoon highs may only be in the upper 80s to low 90s w/ heat
index values close to 100F. But this pattern shift will also
feature an increased chance of late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. During the Monday to Wednesday time frame,
disturbances embedded in the flow aloft will likely ignite
afternoon convection to the north and west of our CWA. Considering
the WNW flow aloft, we cannot rule out these storms pushing into
southeast Texas by the late afternoon or evening. A few
thunderstorms could become strong given the instability that will
likely be in place. Confidence in the thunderstorm forecast is too
low to pin point a severe weather risk. However, these WNW to NW
flow patterns in late spring / early summer are always something
you want to monitor closely. Model guidance wasn`t too helpful
in determining PoPs. Generally speaking, the best chance of a
thunderstorm will be across our western and northern counties. But
areas farther south and east are not out of the woods either. The
flow pattern becomes more zonal by Thursday and Friday. But that
may not stop the parade of disturbances aloft. Therefore, the risk
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms remains in place through
the end of the week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Another night with SCT to OVC MVFR conditions is expected across
all terminals through mid/late morning. Then, VFR conditions can
be expected through the remainder of the period. Winds will
generally remain from the south- southeast at around 10 to 15
knots. Gusts up to 25 knots can be expected in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Moderate south to southeast winds and 4 to 6 foot seas are
expected through tomorrow. Winds and seas decrease somewhat on
Monday and Tuesday. During the second half of the week, moderate
to occasionally strong southeast winds and 4 to 6 foot seas resume.
Caution flags may be warranted by the second half of the week.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible by Wednesday and Thursday.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  94  76  95 /  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  78  94  78  97 /  10  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  90  80  87 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ176>178-
     195>200-210>213-226-227-235.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ176>178-
     195>200-210>213-226-227-235.

     Beach Hazards Statement through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self