328
FXUS65 KPUB 270930
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms mainly late this afternoon, likely lasting
  well into the nighttime hours over the far eastern plains.

- Increasing chances for storms, some strong to severe, across
  eastern Colorado through the end of the work week.

- Warmer and drier into the next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Currently...

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the region at 2 AM this morning.
Temps were in the 50s most plains locations with 40s valleys. on the
regional scale, modest dry W-NW flow was noted aloft.

Today...

Dry throughout the day, with a few isolated exceptions. The best
chance for isolated high based storms will occur late in the day
over the San Juans and possibly the southern mtns and high
elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Otherwise, the remainder of the
region will be dry through 6 pm. Temperatures will be warming up
today and expect temps around 90F over the far eastern plains with
M70s to M80s along the I-25 corridor. San Luis Valley should see
temps in the 70-75F range. Winds today will be light and diurnally
driven.

Tonight...

A bit of an interesting pattern evolves. A bit of a surge of
moisture is expected to advect west in from KS during the evening
hours. Isolated storms over the mtns will be pushing east, and will
move into a somewhat more favorable environment for development, and
thus expect storms to last well into the evening hours as they move
east across the far eastern plains. The storms are not expected to
be severe, and are expected to be relatively isolated, but there
will be some lightning flashes over the far eastern plains well into
the late night hours.

With better moisture advecting into the plains tonight, and
associated high cloud cover from anvil convection, temps will be
relatively mild, wit mins mostly in the 50s across he plains, wit
U40s over the El Paso county region. Valleys should see lows around
35-40F with mtns in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024


Tuesday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging building across the Rockies
will keep weak west to southwest flow aloft in place through the day
Tuesday, with westerly flow progged to slowly increase Tuesday night
and Wednesday, as an eastern Pacific system starts to translate
through the stronger westerly flow in place across the Northern
Tier. Latest model data indicates differences in the amount of low
level moisture return across the region on Tuesday, with NBM
indicating dew pts in the 40s to low 50s supporting moderate
instability across the southeast Plains Tuesday afternoon. With lack
of any evident trigger, models suggest convection initiating across
the eastern mtns especially in the Pikes Peak region, Tuesday
afternoon, with some stronger storms spreading east into better
moisture and instability across the far southeast Plains. With only
modest shear in place across the region, the latest SPC Day 2
outlook keeps the best chances for severe storms further south and
east across southeastern New Mexico and into western Texas.

Convection spreading east Tuesday night looks to bring back better
low level moisture across the Plains on Wednesday, with some stratus
possible across the far southeast Plains early Wednesday morning.
With moderate instability in place, along with increased shear and a
weak embedded wave within the increasing westerly flow aloft, will
lead to good chances of storms, some strong to severe, across southeast
Colorado Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the latest SPC Day 3
outlook bringing in a marginal risk of storms capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds across northern portions of the southeast
Plains.

Thursday-Saturday...Models continue to indicate differences in the
strength and amplitude of the eastern Pacific system translating
across the Rockies Thursday and Friday, with the latest GFS runs
remaining the strongest and furthest south digging the trough across
the central Rockies through Friday night, where as the EC and Canadian
solutions much further north with the main trough. How this system
evolves will determine precipitation chances and strength of
convection, with the latest NBM keeping the best chances across the
far southeast Plains on Thursday, with a weak front pushing south
across the Plains Thursday night, leading to slightly cooler
temperatures on Friday and the best chances of showers and storms
across eastern mtns and immediate adjacent plains both Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday-Monday...Warmer and drier weather still progged for later
into the weekend and into early next week, with upper level ridging
building across the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions and mainly dry weather expected this forecast
period. Will continue to see winds diminish early this morning,
with a period of more light and variable winds likely. Then
expect lighter and more diurnally driven winds for the remainder
of the period. There remains a low chance for isolated shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon but with chances
still low at this time, have opted to keep the TAFs dry. Later
forecasts will need to assess the need to include at least a
VCSH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ