Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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221 FXUS65 KABQ 221128 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 528 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Warm, dry and breezy to windy conditions will prevail through the weekend. The windiest days are expected to be Thursday and Saturday and these strong winds combined with relative humidity values below 15 percent will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the area. Wind gusts on Saturday may reach or exceed 50 mph, especially across eastern NM, which will result in hazardous crosswinds. High temperatures will hover around normal for late May with little to no precipitation expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 A backdoor front is currently progressing south and west through eastern NM this morning with a northerly wind shift and surface dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s in its wake. Winds are gusty on the leading edge of the front with gusts of up to 35 mph at Tucumcari. The front will make it to Roswell shortly before sunrise with gusts of up to 35 mph possible as the front moves through. Additionally, the front will seep through the gaps of the central mountain chain and provide a southeast wind to Santa Fe and an east wind to the ABQ Metro around sunrise through the mid morning hours during the morning commute. Winds gusts of up to 35 mph are possible for locations downwind of Tijeras Canyon during this time. Deep ABL mixing will then tap into the westerly winds aloft helping to allow the backdoor front to mix out and allow winds to veer to more of a southerly and westerly direction come the afternoon across central NM and the northeast and central highlands. With this, dewpoints will drop to the single digits to teens across western and central NM. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible across west central and northeast NM. Winds across the eastern plains will veer from northeast in the morning to south by the afternoon allowing dewpoints to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. In terms of high temperatures, it will be a touch warmer compared to Tuesday across western and central NM and around 5 to 7 degrees cooler across the eastern plains due to the effect of this morning`s backdoor front. Southwest to west winds taper off after sunset The dryline across West Texas backs to the TX/NM state line come sunrise Thursday morning and this higher surface moisture could result in some low clouds across the southeast plains near the TX state line. Low clouds and moisture quickly mixes well east of the state shortly after sunrise thanks to increasing westerly flow south of an upper low moving across the northern and central Rockies. Deep ABL mixing will tap into 30 to 40 kts winds at 500 mb resulting in stronger west winds compared to Wednesday, around 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph. Dewpoints will plummet into the single digits and teens across the entire state resulting in single digit minimum relative humidity values and some critical fire weather concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 A backdoor cold front will slide south and west across the eastern plains Thursday night through early Friday. Winds will quickly veer around to the south during the afternoon, but fortunately, wind speeds will be a little lighter than on Thursday. High temperatures will take a slight hit, with most locations 3 to 10 degrees cooler than Thursday. Little change in temps are expected elsewhere with breezy to locally windy west to southwest winds expected. A Pacific trough is still expected to cross NM on Saturday. H7 wind speeds will increase to between 35 and 40kts. Deep mixing (likely closer to 600 mb) combined with a strong surface pressure gradient due to a 993 mb low over SE CO will result in a windy day across NM. The strongest winds will likely be across eastern NM with gusts near 50 mph. Winds will relax Saturday evening, but breezy to windy conditions will return on Sunday with continued dry, westerly flow aloft. A weak front will back into eastern NM early next week as weak ridging develops over the Desert Southwest. This will allow Gulf moisture to advect westward, potentially even west of the Rio Grande Valley by Wednesday. Though a stray storm is possible as early as Tuesday afternoon, better chances for precipitation and perhaps a strong to severe storm appear to be Wednesday across eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 A dry backdoor cold front currently across the central highlands and through KROW will move through KSAF and KABQ around 14Z. North to northeast winds on the leading edge of the backdoor front across eastern NM will be breezy with gusts of up to 30 kts possible. The east wind at KABQ from the backdoor front could produce gusts of up to 25 kts through around 16Z. Westerly flow aloft mixing down to the surface will wash out the backdoor front first across central areas late morning followed by the eastern highlands midday and the eastern plains come the mid to late afternoon. West to southwest winds in the afternoon will be breezy across west central areas including KGUP and the northeast highlands including KLVS with gusts of up to 30 kts possible. Winds across these areas drop off shortly after sunset. The dryline across West Texas backs up to far eastern NM eastern Thursday morning. This added surface moisture could produce some low clouds on the caprock including KCVN and KCVS around 23/09Z. Low clouds look to stay south of KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ANTICIPATED SATURDAY... A backdoor front currently moving through eastern NM will provide a temporary and slight increase in relative humidity values and cooler temperatures today, while western and portions of central NM remain warm, very dry and unstable. An upper level low will move east across the northern and central Rockies with stronger south of the low moving over the state Thursday. Deep ABL mixing will result in breezy to windy conditions by the afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the single digits for almost all areas and teens across the northern mountain peaks. Critical fire weather conditions are possible across western NM and the middle RGV for around 2 to 3 hours Thursday afternoon and evening, but could be longer is winds trend upward. However, winds will be a touch stronger across the upper Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico resulting in critical fire weather conditions from midday through sunset Thursday. Soil moisture across eastern New Mexico has decreased rapidly the last few days and despite some greenup from last week`s precipitation, curing of fine fuels is likely occurring. For that reason a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these respective zones. Upper level winds and thus surface winds decrease a little on Friday in the wake of Thursday`s system. Some locally critical fire weather conditions will still possible for 1 to 3 hours across west central and northeast NM Friday afternoon. Widespread critical fire weather conditions is anticipated Saturday as stronger winds aloft associated with a shortwave trough over the Great Basin move directly overhead. Winds look to stay elevated on Sunday due to a trailing upper low moving across the northern and central Rockies and this could result in one more day of critical fire weather conditions across eastern New Mexico. Wind speeds decrease early next week as an upper level ridge strengthens over the region. Additionally, higher moisture begins to move into eastern NM on Monday behind a backdoor front increasing further heading into mid next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 78 44 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 73 36 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 74 40 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 76 37 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 38 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 37 78 37 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 76 39 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 41 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 80 37 80 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 50 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 67 34 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 73 48 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 72 43 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 41 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 63 34 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 32 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 73 37 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 71 40 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 79 45 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 44 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 51 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 85 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 47 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 50 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 48 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 84 50 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 47 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 83 51 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 51 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 77 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 78 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 42 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 73 43 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 78 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 83 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 50 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 69 43 77 39 / 10 5 0 0 Raton........................... 75 41 81 41 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 75 41 82 43 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 73 43 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 74 50 85 45 / 5 5 0 0 Roy............................. 73 47 83 46 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 81 52 90 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 52 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 54 92 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 56 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 56 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 54 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 88 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 84 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 85 52 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ104-121-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71