Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280523 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Adjusted pops a bit based on latest radar trends and newest cam
solutions which have backed off on overnight redevelopment of
precip. Currently, most shower activity has pushed up into North
Dakota, leaving only isolated showers to sprinkles behind. Still
left in some slight chances due to uncertainty and run to run
inconsistency.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

The primary forecast challenge in the near term forecast is timing
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms through saturday
afternoon.

This afternoon under a mostly cloudy sky, showers and thunderstorms
are continuing to push north across the forecast area mainly over
the James River valley region eastward into the Red River valley.
Temperatures, earlier in the day before the rain moved through, were
warming through the 70s. Areas under the thickest cloud cover where
it has rained have cooled down into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

For tonight and Saturday, this current band of showers and
thunderstorms should continue to gradually work its way northward
before weakening or leaving the CWA for North Dakota. Short-range,
hi-res cam solutions/guidance suggest that by late tonight /after
06z/, more showers and thunderstorms could pop up over the CWA. With
little movement suggested, if they do form, expect localized heavy
rainfall. An additional band of rain showers could be lifting
northward into the far eastern CWA Saturday morning. Otherwise,
precipitation chances on Saturday will be primarily tied to
afternoon heating-induced convection. Limited instability/deep-layer
shear forecast over the area on Saturday should limit strong
convection potential.

Low temperatures tonight should be similar to last night`s lows,
given the similar airmass and similar sky-cover conditions expected.
Look for lows generally in the 40s and 50s. High temperatures on
Saturday in a limited low level thermal advection regime will be
moreso dependent on amount of insolation available, but expect high
temperatures to warm, at least, into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

An upper level trough will exit the region to the east Saturday
night...with the flow then becoming nearly zonal until another
shortwave trough looks to affect the area late Monday night through
Wednesday night. Northwesterly flow then develops as ridging builds
over the western part of the country.

Saturday night and Sunday look to be mainly dry as weak high
pressure tracks across the area. A low pressure system will bring a
more significant chance of precipitation Monday afternoon into the
day Tuesday. Conditions then begin to quiet down some mid to late
week as high pressure takes over.

Above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will be
common Sunday and Monday...then cooler air moves back in...with
highs mainly in the 70s Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows
will generally  be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
sites except KATY. MVFR cigs will move over KATY and may
occasionally affect KABR between 13z and 24z Saturday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will redevelop on Saturday, but confidence
is low in timing and areal extent so did not add vcts at this time.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TDK


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