Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161731 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Despite colder temperatures, winds of 30 to 40 mph will result in
  very high fire danger and thus a Red Flag Warning.

- Temperatures bottom out Sunday with highs close to the freezing
  mark east river.

- Mainly dry Mon-Wednesday with above average temperatures.
  Increasing precipitation chances Thu-Fri.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 1003 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

As of 10:20am, the cold front is well to the south of our CWA
with winds out of the northwest with obs indicating wind speeds
between 20-25mph and wind gusts 30-40mph across the forecast area.
Otherwise, scattered to broken lower to mid level clouds continue
to push southeast over the CWA. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected
through the afternoon and diminishing a bit this evening. No
changes made to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

This morning we are under a cold advection regime. 1/2 km winds are
on the order of about 30kts at current, and with daytime heating we
see BUFKIT mixed winds topping out around 25 to 30kts. The CAM
ensemble also tops out around 30kts with just a few kts of range
between the 25th and 75th percentiles. The minor wrinkle to
efficient mixing will be an area of low and mid level stratus coming
down out of North Dakota this morning, which will inhibit heating to
some degree. BUFKIT profiles also hint at the potential for cold
advection instability showers with a few hundred feet of depth,
suggesting probably little more than a brief sprinkle/light snow
shower.  Winds will diminish with loss of daytime heating to a
degree, however mixing will persist. Regardless, guidance is
confident in dropping us to around 20 degrees by Sunday morning,
with the core of coldest air lingering through the day, and
resulting in highs about 10 degrees below normal. Mixed winds end up
a touch lower for Sunday as well, but should still top out around 20
to 25kts.

Despite afternoon humidity between 25 and 35 percent and much cooler
temperatures for today, due to extremely dry nature of the
vegetation have issued a Red Flag Warning thanks primarily to wind
gusts of 30 to 40mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The current highly amplified upper pattern across the CONUS looks to
continue through the middle of next week. That pattern consisting of
an upper block over the west, and trof in the eastern CONUS.
Overall, this will provide for a continuation of mainly dry
conditions over the forecast area. Better chances for pcpn will
sneak into the forecast for the end of next week, as the pattern
aloft breaks down, and energy begins entering the west coast, and
then advecting into the Plains. Details concerning the late next
week weather are, of course, still sketchy. But that said, chances
for snow appear to be on the increase. The period start off with
above average temperatures, but then trends back toward normal by
week`s end as pcpn chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period at all TAF
sites. Isolated (15-25%) chance of brief rain/snow showers then
snow this evening through early Sunday, mainly east of the
Missouri River.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ004>011-
     016>023-034>037-051.

MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MMM


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