Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280117 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
817 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO ALLOW
THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND WEATHER AS WELL TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR WHERE THE CURRENT LIGHT
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE REGION ARE TRACKING. NO CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET ANY OBS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN AT
THE GRAND RIVER RAWS SITE. WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE THOUGH AS
SPEEDS ARE RATHER CLOSE AND AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS RIGHT ALONG CWA BORDER IN UNR AREA HAVE
SEEN ADVISORY SPEEDS SO THERE ARE LIKELY SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA SEEING IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT.
NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY ND AND NORTHERN SD. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPS ARE MUCH COLDER UPSTREAM
WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S...AND EVEN SEEING A FEW OBS
REPORTING SNOW ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER. THIS COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS LOW 40S.

WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STAY COOL WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES PUSHING EAST INTO MN. SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS LOOK
TO GET PRETTY COLD AND HAVE LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES. SHOULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 20S WITH THE JAMES VALLEY PERHAPS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY STEADY TEMPS OUT A BIT
TOWARDS MORNING.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING
SPEEDS NOTED IN MODELS. THEY ALL ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THOUGH...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO THINGS REALLY STAND OUT IN THE OUT PERIODS THIS GO ROUND.
FIRST...IT IS GOING TO BE REALLY COLD ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA/WC MINNESOTA WAKING UP FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD
BLAST OF AIR WILL RATCHET LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
EASILY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE 20S IF NOT COLDER FOR LOW TEMPS.
THEN...ON FRIDAY...DO NOT LOOK FOR MUCH TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE TO EAT
AWAY FIRST. MIXING WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HELPFUL FRIDAY
EITHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. 925HPA THERMAL PROGS
TOP OUT AT PEAK HEATING/MIXING ON FRIDAY AROUND 0C TO -2C ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WC MINNESOTA WHICH TRANSLATES TO
MID/UPPER 30S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SECOND...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A NEARLY 30HPA RETURN FLOW PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINED WITH 0.5KM WIND SPEEDS PROGGED BETWEEN 35 TO 45
KNOTS...AM THINKING IT WILL BE HEADLINE WINDY ON SATURDAY. WHAT
IMPACT THIS WIND FORECAST WILL HAVE ON FIRE WEATHER REMAINS TO BE
SEEN. BUT...IF MODELS END UP BEING A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON
RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO THIS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...IT SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONGER
RANGE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS IS FOR ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF TO
BEGIN MARCHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THAT POINT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST...INCLUDING KPIR AND KMBG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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