Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 041440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEEING SOME CUMULUS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN BETWEEN LOOKS LIKE LOTS OF SUN
TODAY. TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF
THIS TIME MONDAY SO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK


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