Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Upper level trough was over MAN with an upper level jet on
the southern periphery. Upper level trough will move into
Ontario by Mon morning.

Surface front extended from between HCO and ROX to near
Gwinner ND. Front will shift east of the area by mid morning.

Another upper level trough over the Yukon will rotate into the
Northern Plains late Mon and send a back door cold front into the
area on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the mid to late week period... the H5 flow continues to amplify
through the mid to late week period resulting in a building H5 ridge
over the northern plains from Wednesday into Thursday providing
generally fair skies and a drier northerly blayer flow on Wednesday
which turns light from the south on Thursday. Then expect a fairly
aggressive H5 shortwave trof digging into the Northern Plains on
Friday and Saturday. This will establish a deeper southerly flow
aloft throughout the plains states and promote one or two rounds of
strong convection across the area. The GFS remains the wetter model
and produces strong storms transiting the area both Friday and
Saturday. Model consensus has Sunday as a bit of a cleanup day...
with a slightly drier northwest flow over the area as the next H5
shortwave ridge approaches aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A wind shift will occur around the time or just before 06Z TAFs go
into effect. Sites east of DVL currently seeing a southerly
component will see a shift to the W then NW in the 05Z to 06Z
timeframe...then NW through remainder of night and NW-WNW on
Sunday. Other than that, VFR with potential for an early morning
shower south of FAR.




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