Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1146 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Issued at 1002 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Hires model hourly temps appear too warm tonight considering
clear skies and a sfc ridge moving across region circa 09Z. Old
MOS guidance is a bit colder and more in line with neighbors, and
have done a blend of CONShort/MOS through 14Z. Gives a couple of
deg cooler overnight lows but continues to keep w central min in
the 30s. Will see how temps go through next update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Quiet period ahead through the short term. Surface high pressure
will build into the region and hold through Saturday. Diminishing
winds and clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop back
into the 20s. Full solar expected again tomorrow and with modest
warm advection in the afternoon 50s should be more widespread
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The extended period starts with a split flow upper level pattern...
with the northern stream north of the international border and the
southern stream over the southern plains. Surface high pressure
remains in control before retreating east on Sunday ahead of the
next system.

Models are in reasonable agreement for timing and movement of the
next system to affect the region late Sunday night through early
Tuesday morning. There is some uncertainty to the track so the main
challenge will be the placement of the surface well as
temperatures at the surface and aloft affecting the type and amount
of precipitation. At this time...a small pocket of cooler air is
expected to be mainly in the southeastern portion of the forecast
area and some snow can be expected to mix with the rain. For
now...looking at an inch or two of snow in the coldest air and the
greatest precipitation amounts near and east of the Red River.

After the system tracks to the east late Tuesday...expect the upper
level ridge to rebound a bit over the area. By the end of the
period...will see more ridge amplification over the Rockies and a
return to much warmer temperatures. Otherwise...there will be
chances for light precipitation as a series of disturbances cross
the region. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period with no cigs


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

VFR/clear skies tonight with sfc high moving across region. Winds
a bit lighter on latest guidance so trending toward light and
variable for morning hours with light southerly flow setting up
later in the day.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.