Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 152038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
238 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

With fair skies and nearly zonal H5 flow aloft...and an H8 warm
air bubble now pushing across North Dakota...surface to H8 warm
air advection is set to peak over the RRV this afternoon and early
evening. The higher elevation bench lands of eastern ND and forested
areas of northwest through west central MN mixed out a bit
earlier this afternoon while remaining cold air pockets in the
lower elevation RRV floor should warm through the late afternoon.

A dry H5 split-flow axis edges over the area later tonight with
decreasing mid to lower level westerly winds. Meanwhile...a low
pressure system now moving into the southern and central plains
states will draw a more moist and overall warmer airmass northward
and into the area tonight through Monday. Light southerly winds
will persist and temperatures tonight through Monday will see
continued warming by a few degrees over today. An increase in
airmass moisture should introduce a few clouds by late Monday
...however no significant precipitation is expected to reach the

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Monday night through Tuesday...The split flow becomes more phased at
the start of the period with a northern branch shortwave moving
through the Northern Plains and merging with the southern branch
wave coming up from the south. The models have all been trending
further south and east with the precipitation moving up from the
Central Plains, and no longer have an impact on our west central MN
counties. Will go dry, and with continued southwesterly winds at the
surface and warm air advection the slow warming trend will remain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge building in and then moving
east, setting the stage for an even greater warm up. Not just 850mb
but 925mb temps get above zero. Now the inversion will not
completely mix out and there will still be snow to contend with, but
the warming should be enough to allow highs to reach well above
average into the 30s.

Friday through Sunday...Flow becomes more amplified with southerly
flow and an upper low lifting into the area sometime over the
weekend. Latest ECWMF run has slowed down a bit but is still a bit
faster than the GFS. Ensembles are all over the place so will keep
the blended POPs that has a chance for much of the weekend. Will
have to watch precip type as there could be some rain, and with road
temps cold some freezing is not out of the question. For now will
just have rain/snow but will monitor this system as it approaches.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Mainly fair skies and light southerly winds through the period.




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