Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 302031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE 995 MB LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN SD AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND INTO SWRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ARCS FROM BOTTINEAU TO FARGO AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING PEMBINA BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SD BORDER...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE
FAR SOUTH. ITS LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IN CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT.

TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT WAVE ENTERS AREA
BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDER TO THE CWFA BY
THURSDAY PM. GFS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS 12Z SOLN OF THIS
SYSTEM AND USED A BLEND OF THE GEM/EC/NAM WITH ITS 500MB
PLACEMENT...TIMING AND TRACK...ALL OF WHICH BRING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER AREA BY 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 850MB
TEMPS REACH INTO THE 5 TO 9C RANGE WITH AND FAVORABLE WARMING SW
SFC WINDS ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND STRONG 925MB CAA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING 40KTS OR
BETTER TO MIX DURING THE DAYTIME. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 4C OR
SO WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C SO WILL LOWER FRIDAY MAX TEMPS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHOWERS SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY... NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE PERIOD WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CHC/SLGHT CHC POPS SAT AND SUN WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE GIVING LOW 50S FOR MAX TEMPS. THICKNESSES INCREASE AS THE
NW FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WEST NW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT AND SLGHT CHC POPS ARE
LIMITED TO THE EASTERN CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DVL...WHICH WILL
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR BY MID AFTN. BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TOWARDS DVL AND FAR ARE WEAKENING. POSSIBLE VCSH WITH
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT OR LINGERING CLOUD DECK AT
DVL AND FAR. SE WINDS 15 TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMBEDDED WITH
THUNDER EXPECTED LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST CERTAIN AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK






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