000
FXUS63 KFGF 101554
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE FAR
SOUTH AND WIND CHILL TEMPS. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
ENOUGH DEEP LAYERED SATURATION ON THE 12Z NAM TO SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH FROM 21Z-00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...UNDER ONE
HALF INCH FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE ZERO IN THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...AND WIND CHILLS
SHOULD RISE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z. THEREFORE...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z AND THEN ALLOW TO
EXPIRE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. ACROSS
EASTERN ND...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS
ARE CALM...WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED BELOW -25F...SO CURRENT
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST LATER
THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS AS
WELL. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 18 UTC...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
2 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS IN THE NEAR
SURFACE MIXED LAYER AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL ACCUMULATION.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND A BUILDING 1040 HPA SURFACE HIGH WITH
850 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM -24 TO -28C WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW. NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. NO DOUBT WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING WILL BE NEEDED...
BUT TO MINIMIZE CONFUSION WITH ONGOING ADVISORY WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT HOIST THE NEXT ROUND OF WIND CHILL PRODUCTS.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THURSDAY ALONG TIGHTENING
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE WEAK...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
ZERO WITH LOW TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND.

THE COLD TRAIN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SURGES OF FRESH COLD AIR. THE COLDEST AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 00Z GFS SHOWING SUB 500 THICKNESS AND 00Z
GEM SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS -30C. SOME QUESTION WITH CLOUD COVER SO
LEFT ALL BLEND TEMPS ALONG FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN-SUN NIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY IF CLEAR ANY ONE NIGHT IT WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE
-20S OR LOWER. WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH DID KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR SOME -SN SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF MAIN COLD SHOT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

REMOVED MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KFAR. LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT AGL SHOULD STAY JUST
SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES...COINCIDENT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
FROM 10 TO 20 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS