Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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261
FXUS63 KFGF 271941
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Forecast challenge for this evening will be precip in portions of
west central MN and the central valley...up through Lake of the
Woods county. Trending toward hi-res HRRR for guidance. SPC
mesoanalysis indicating a band of 500 to 1000 J/KG mean layer
CAPE from around Lisbon ND through Hillsboro through Grygla
MN...with 1000 J/KG plus in SW Polk Co MN. HRRR runs throughout
the morning have shown convection initiating in this afternoon
around 22Z. Increased POPs on 1 PM update for this area but
holding off on going into likelies as very little activity there
at the current time. However, a few weak cells have began to
develop since 2 PM CDT and have even received a report of
funnels...in area SPC meso is showing non-supercell tornado
parameter just over 0.5. Have addressed this with a significant
weather advisory.

HRRR indicating activity along this weak sfc boundary will
dissipate around 05Z to 06Z time frame. However, also have
activity over w cntrl MN that should state east of region but
continuing to hold on to low chance pops east of the valley
throughout the night and much of tomorrow. POPs likely over done
but prefer to maintain continuity with uncertainty on how
nocturnal convection will materialize.

Further west, ridging from Canadian high extending down over
western ND and will gradually decrease POPs over Devils region
this evening and further east throughout the night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Sun and Mon...will see drying from west to east through day
Sunday, with majority of area expected to be dry Sunday night. The
next system to move across the northern tier will be Mon aft and
will see increasing POPs in the far west from 18Z Mon to 00Z Tue.

Monday Night-Friday...Global models are in general agreement in
bringing an upper level trough gradually across the region through
the middle of next week, although differences in the speed and
amplitude of the system exist among models. The highest chances for
convection likely would be early in the period with the approach of
the trough, with lower chances later in the week as the upper low
shifts east. Temps should also cool to below seasonal averages
during the mid-week time frame as some cooler air drops south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the evening but some model
guidance does suggest lower ceilings for a time Saturday morning.
Winds will be near or below 10 kts through the period. Greatest
degree of uncertainty still is with precip chances. Will
include VCSH at all sites excluding KDVL given low confidence in
timing and will not mention thunder at this time and will amend as
needed as confidence increases.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Makowski/Speicher
AVIATION...Makowski



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