000
FXUS63 KFGF 222019
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Forecast challenge for the short term period will be timing of
rain showers. Northeast surface flow with dewpoints generally in
the low 40s will help keep low levels of the atmosphere dry, and
weak echoes over Devils Lake area and northeast SD most likely
will be virga and struggle reaching the surface until column
saturates more. Northern half of the CWA tonight will enjoy clear
skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid 40s while
cloudy areas to the south expected to stay in the low to mid 50s.

Chances for precip increase tomorrow although models varying quite
a bit on timing and location over the valley, with better
confidence over central and western ND with best impact of
leading wave in SW flow pattern aloft being to our west. Name does
lift a more defined band of showers up through the valley, with
some weak ML CAPES. Will adjust previous wx types to rain showers
and isolated TSTMs aft 15Z Friday, however likely will be limited
in coverage and later in the afternoon before sufficient
instability occurs for thunder. Cloud cover will limit daytime
highs to the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Friday night through Sunday...The main upper low will move from the
central and northern Rockies into the northern Plains, pushing the
surface low from western ND through the CWA during the time period.
The deterministic models are in fairly good agreement over the
weekend on bringing one wave of precipitation mainly to the northern
and western counties Friday night with a lead shortwave and another
round Saturday as the surface trough axis approaches. Depending on
how quickly showers move out Friday night there could be some
destabilization during the day on Saturday. Friday night and
Saturday morning should see isolated thunder but with models showing
around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE included showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon. The dry slot moves in Saturday night and early
Sunday, with wrap around showers in the west Sunday afternoon. Temps
will pop up into the 70s at least in the south for Saturday, but
cool down quite a bit for Sunday in the 50s and low 60s.

Monday through Thursday...Model consensus goes downhill as the upper
trough moves eastward. The GFS is slower and deeper with the system,
lingering it over the upper midwest through Tuesday with wrap around
showers remaining over the Red River Valley. The ECMWF is more
progressive and dries us out faster. Ensembles are all over the
place so kept the blended solution with at least a small chance for
showers through early next week. Temps should be near to slightly
below seasonal averages. Should start to dry out and warm up for the
end of the period as models come back into agreement on a ridge
building into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR cigs around 4K to 5K feet will advect from southeastern ND
northward during the TAF period, reaching FAR mid morning
tomorrow. Precip should generally be after the current TAF period
although an isolated shower VCNTY DVL certainly possible this
afternoon. Northeast winds will keep northern valley and northwest
MN clear for most of aftn with mid level cigs moving in by
evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Speicher