Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
945 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms have continued to linger over the
far southern CWA, so bumped up POPs a bit through the rest of the
morning. By afternoon we should see some decrease as the boundary
pushes south. Clouds will also be in the area, and could keep
temps from getting as hot as expected. The blend of short range
models has the afternoon temps topping out a few degrees cooler
than what we had going, more in the upper 80s to low 90s rather
than more widespread 90s. With clouds this seems reasonable so
have temps just a degree or so cooler.

UPDATE Issued at 706 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

High and mid level cloud cover is pretty extensive over southern
ND into west central MN. Enough elevated instability for a few
showers and isold thunder near Bismarck area and these are tying
to develop a bit east in a weaker fashion toward Valley City. HRRR
shows this possibility thru 16z or so maybe reaching Fargo. So
updated for rw- along I-94. Also isold trw popped up nr the SD
border and added that as well into parts of wcntrl MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Main 500 mb short wave moving east into NW Ontario at 08z. Bow
echo racing thru nrn MN toward DLH now but southwest edge is
hanging up a bit over wcntrl mn in warm advection zone. will watch
for pops in wcntrl mn thru 12z. but for right now thinking is dry
weather post 12z and into tonight as a more stable airmass builds
southward. the trough of low pressure and wind shift line at the
afc will be near the sd/nd/mn border region this aftn/eve but warm
air aloft and lack of upper level dynamics is anticipated to
prevent tstm formation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

friday will be dry...then warm advection and instability returns
northward into wrn/cntrl dakotas fri aftn with storm development
anticipated in eastern wyoming or se montana and then activity
forming a MCS and tracking east through southern half of north
dakota and far northern south dakota. some disagreement with this
however as some models such as ecmwf has precip area more central
and nrn nd. anyhow upward trend in pops fri night into saturday.

Into the 500 mb upper ridge does eventually slide a bit west and
put us in a more northwest flow. But that still means additional
short waves about every 48 hours so expect more stormy/wet
conditions with temps near or maybe a tad below normal through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

VFR expected thru the pd. some high and mid cloud south this
morning with clearer north. Winds light today....mostly northwest
in DVL/GFK/TVF and light and variable turning north BJI/FAR.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle


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