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000
FXUS63 KLBF 071003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
403 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WAS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
YANKTON SD...TO ORD NEBR...TO MCCOOK NEBR. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE
PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS WELL NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE A SECONDARY FRONT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR.
LIGHT RAIN WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PLAINS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD
DISTURBANCE. AS OF 2 AM CST UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM 33 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 48 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...HIGHS
WILL BE EARLY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTED IN A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH
HIGHS NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MIGRATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THIS MORNING IN LIGHT OF THE LOW
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS AS TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE NECESSARY
TO GET ANY PCPN ALOFT TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBRASKA...ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ORIENTED
ALONG A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO BROKEN BOW. IN ADDITION TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WEAK NORTH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA MAY ADD SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE EQUATION. PTYPES CONTINUE TO BE A TRICKY
PROPOSITION TODAY WITH NON DIURNAL TEMPS EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER...WITH
ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED PCPN. ATTM...DECIDED
TO STICK WITH THE INHERITED FCST WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A RAIN TO SNOW
CHANGEOVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. QPF`S SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE TODAY WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED. THIS WILL
LEAD TO QPF`S A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMS
BEING UNDER AN INCH. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. COLD ARCTIC AIR IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME SWRN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLEST IN
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR FIRST AND THE
DEPTH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE GREATEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...TO THE MID 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE SUN SHINE WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RVR VALLEY. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH
THE SUN WILL HELP WARM WESTERN NEB INTO THE 50S...WHILE CLOSER THE
HIGH...NORTH CENTRAL WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

EARLY SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...SEEING 850
MB TEMPS RETURN TO 13C TO 17C. AFTER SEEING HIGHS YESTERDAY REACH
THE 60S AND EVEN 71 AT IML AND 70 AT TIF...SEE NO REASON WE DO
NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. MAV
GUIDANCE IS THE WARMEST WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS 70 OR
WARMER...LIKE 74 AT IML...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. FORECAST SIDES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
GUIDANCE...AS BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD MIX THE WARMER TEMPS
TO THE GROUND. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD STILL BE IN THE WARM AIR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
CLOSE TO SUNDAY HIGHS. MAY SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...PENDING TIMING OF THE
FRONT. DID NOT GO INTO THE MID 70S YET...BUT COULD BE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH S ACROSS
THE AREA. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SHALLOW AND GETS
HELD UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THE FRONT
SYSTEM. FIRST IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AS BL IS FAIRLY DRY AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO COME TOP DOWN. SECOND WILL BE P TYPE...AS
TEMPS INITIALLY COOL INTO THE 30S...BUT REBOUND SOME FOR TUESDAY.
GENERALLY THINK PRECIP WILL START OUT AS RAIN...THEN AS COOLER AIR
PUSHES SOUTH...A MIX IS EXPECTED...AS SFC TEMPS HOLD ABOVE
FREEZING AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SW AS THE
FRONT STALLS. DRIER AIR AS THE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

DRY FOR WED AND THURS WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPS CLOSE TO 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR
POSSIBLE BY 11Z AT KVTN SUPPORTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. UNCERTAINTY
HOWEVER IN DURATION THROUGH THE DAY AND MENTION ONLY A SCT025
ATTM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 15 KTS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF KVTN. GENERALLY
EXPECTING A RAIN SNOW MIX WITHIN THE BAND...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AT KLBF...VFR SHOULD BE THE GENERAL
RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG