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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280915
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

STRATUS EXTENDS FROM ALL OF SWRN NEBR NARROWING NORTHWARD INTO VTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT REPORTED BY ANY ASOS OR AWOS...FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN AREAS OF THE STRATUS AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NORTH PLATTE
WFO THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 15 ABOVE
BENEATH THE STRATUS TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS OF CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HOLD A GRIP ON THE
PLAINS...MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THESE ENTIRE REGIONS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY...THIS AIRMASS AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -9C TO -11C. MIXING
DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 30 AT VTN...ANW AND ONL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. THESE HIGHS
NEAR A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NCTRL TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTH TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED IN ERN AND SERN CO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
NEBR BY 18Z TODAY. THIS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INTO EARLY
AFTN ACROSS SERN ZONES. ALSO THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO THE CNTRL SANDHILLS ATTM HAS CONTAINED A FEW FLURRIES. SO
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE LOW POP AREAS
IN SWRN NEBR.

FOR TONIGHT...WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SPLIT
FLOW. SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS CALIF
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO BRING A LEAD DISTURBANCE LOCATED
FROM SWRN CO/NCTRL NEW MEXICO EAST NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS/FAR
SOUTHERN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL
SHUNT H7-H5 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS EAST OF OUR FA...THUS
LIMITING POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA. ANY
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF /A FEW HOURS OR LESS/ AT ANY LOCATION
WITH ONLY UP TO A LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR.
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS GOING IN THE EXTENDED
REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  SPLIT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST/GREAT
BASIN.  AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY...A
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME WEAK UPGLIDE IN THE
290-300K SURFACE IS SHOWN WITH COND PRES DEFS APPROACHING 10MB OR
LESS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FIRST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  QPF
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THAT.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY.  HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN
THE 30S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE THAT FORECAST LOWS WERE INCREASED TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TEENS
FORECAST FOR LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR AND
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND.  IN ADDITION...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  DEEP UPGLIDE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL LIFT
WILL COMBINE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCE BY THE
ARCTIC INVASION...WITH HIGHS AND LOW FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO.  BEYOND MID-WEEK...A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP AID
TEMPERATURE IN RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE BANK OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND EXIT THE FCST AREA EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SRN NEB
SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC