Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 041826
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
126 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR PIERRE SD AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH INTO WRN KS. A PASSING DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN SD INTO PARTS OF
NCTRL...CNTRL...SERN NEBR AND NCTRL KS.

TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGED FROM 65 AT OGA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT TO 76 AT ONL UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS NORTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA. MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEP AND EXPAND FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.

A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 28C WEST OF
ANW THROUGH BBW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY WEST OF HWY 83 AND SOUTH TO THE EAST. WINDS TODAY
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE WEST AND FROM 10 TO 15
MPH IN THE EAST.

BUFR SOUNDING AT VTN INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO 650MB. FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN TWO DAYS...NO TEMPERATURES OF 100 OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST.
A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND HAVE USED A BLEND AGAIN FOR TODAY. HIGHS TO RANGE IN
THE 90S TODAY RANGING FROM 92 AT ONL...95 AT LBF AND 98 AT VTN.

THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST TODAY TO
BRING LOWEST DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
WEST AND GIVING MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT NEAR AND
WEST OF HWY 83.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WRN NEBR WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE CONVECTIVE MODELS
WITH POOR TO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. COVERAGE
AND DURATION FROM ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND
BRIEF...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAS OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. FOR THESE REASONS....HAVE KEPT POPS AT JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE. KEPT THE MENTION LIMITED TO THE ERN PNHDL AND SWRN AREAS
THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT
WITH 0-3KM MUCAPES DECREASING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG THIS EVENING.
H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-40 KTS BY MIDNIGHT WHILE BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 25 TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES TO KEEP LOWS UP FROM
NEAR 63 WEST TO NEAR 70 NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TROUGH WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED /PER LATEST MODEL BLEND/
WITH MOST AREAS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS STILL ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY.

COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
MODELS ALSO BRING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MODELS
TAP SOME SW MONSOON MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS.

BY MIDWEEK MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS KEEPING MORE ZONAL FLOW
WITH ANOTHER WEEK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD
FAVOR MORE CHANCES FOR CLOUDS/RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS. THE LATEST
00Z EC HAS MORE NW FLOW AND A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
AREA WOULD BE DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THE LATEST EC...HOWEVER
THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC WAS COOLER THAN THE 00Z RUN SO WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO BLENDED FORECAST AND WILL BE IN A WAIT AND
SEE MODE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO
20 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KANW TO KBBW. WEST OF THIS LINE WINDS
WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR



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