216
FXUS63 KLBF 012240
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
540 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms is expected across
portions of the eastern Panhandle with a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) of severe storms for much of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills
this evening.

- Drier conditions return for Wednesday into Thursday with scattered
thunderstorm chances Thursday night.

- The next significant precipitation arrives on Friday and Friday
evening, although the severe potential is uncertain at this time.

- Near daily rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Updated the forecast to include severe watch # 482 which is
valid until midnight CDT (11 PM MDT) for the eastern panhandle.
western and northwestern Sandhills and a portion of north
central Nebraska. Current radar observation, shows convection
continues to struggle as it moves east off the higher terrain of
far eastern Wyoming. Currently am more concerned about the
supercell storm currently southwest of Rapid City. This storm
is tracking to the south southeast and may impact the
northeastern Nebraska Panhandle over the next 1 to 3 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

After a quiet Tuesday, active weather will return by late afternoon
and into tonight as a shortwave trough tracks across the High
Plains. Current observations show increasing moisture across western
Nebraska along with a dryline across eastern Wyoming. As this trough
and dryline progresses eastward through mid to late afternoon, it
will encounter an environment of moderate instability (CAPE values
near 2500 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, and an area of shear
greater than 30 knots). Convection is anticipated to start between
21Z and 22Z across the Panhandle before tracking east/southeastward
into the evening hours. Greatest threats with these storms will be
large hail (1.5 inch diameter or larger) initially in discrete
supercells before storms become more linear in nature and damaging
winds (65 mph or larger) become the main threat. Overall, these
storms will be primarily diurnally driven and as instability wanes
after sunset the severe potential will decrease. However, there is a
potential that some lingering showers or embedded thunderstorms may
continue through the night across portions of north central
Nebraska. At this time, flash flooding concerns are limited as QPF
totals remain between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. Showers exit into eastern
Nebraska by sunrise Wednesday morning bringing some quieter weather
to the region.

Upper level ridging will begin to build back across the Rockies on
Wednesday keeping dry conditions in place through Thursday. Some
mild warm air advection into the region on both Wednesday and
Thursday will result in a slight increase in temperatures with
widespread low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025


Near daily isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will return on
Thursday night lasting through the weekend. While confidence in
severe risk low, the latest guidance suggest a greater probability
of widespread convection on Friday and Friday night as a cold front
gets dragged across the region. Significant instability and forcing
across the region on Friday into Friday night will lead to stronger
as well as severe storms. Large hail, frequent lightning, heavy
rainfall, and strong wind gusts will be the main threats with the
Friday storms. Also confidence in exact timing is low, but as with
most summer storms, greatest timing of convection will likely be
late afternoon and into the evening potentially impacting holiday
celebrations. Stay tuned to later forecasts on the holiday storm
potential as models get a better handle on the environment.

Otherwise, afternoon and evening storms will continue through the
weekend, however, the severe potential is low at this time. Also the
passage of the cold front on Friday night and a push of cooler air
behind the front Saturday and Saturday night will will result in
temperatures dropping about 5 to 10 degrees across the region by
Sunday. Highs will fall from the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday to
the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will also
drop over the weekend from the mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday night
into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

There will be a risk for thunderstorms mainly this evening at both
terminals with the greatest risk from 01z through 05z. Some wind
gusts to 40+ KTS may accompany the storms, however, by the time the
storms reach the terminals, they are expected to be diminishing in
intensity. Regardless, there could be a period of moderate to brief
heavy rain with the stronger storms, which may limit visibility to
around 3 SM. Expect a clearing trend after 06z this evening with
mainly clear skies expected overnight tonight through most of the
day on Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler