Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 212351 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER






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