Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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557
FXUS63 KLBF 270515
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dry conditions are forecast tonight with mostly clear skies this
evening, then an increase to partly cloudy skies after midnight
southwest and central areas. High res computer models show the
area dry with any showers or thunderstorms focused in Kansas.

The upper ridge flattens out to near zonal Tuesday as a closed low
in Alberta Canada and upper trough in the Pacific Northwest moves
east. Good moisture return with dewpoints rising into the lower
60s central and east. South winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph
with gusts to 35 mph. A lead shortwave trough will move into the
Nebraska Panhandle Tuesday afternoon, to trigger thunderstorms in
the western Sandhills Tuesday afternoon. Most unstable capes reach
around 2500 j/kg just east of highway 61. Strong deep layer shear
up to 50 kts will be supportive of multicells or supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts west of a line
from Cody through Sutherland prior to 7 pm cdt.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The thunderstorms will congeal into a few convective complexes as
the storms encounter the nose of a 40 to 50 kt low level jet over
southwest into central Nebraska. A slight risk for severe
thunderstorms is forecast for all of north central Nebraska with
large hail and wind damage. The prospects of much needed
widespread rainfall is favorable. Heavy rainfall also possible,
especially with any mcs which may develop.

Thunderstorms chances return Wednesday night and persist through
Sunday across portions of the forecast area as the upper low in
Alberta/Saskatchewan drops southeast into the Great Lakes Region
by Saturday and Sunday. The best chances for thunderstorms is for
Thursday/Thursday evening, then again Saturday and Sunday
afternoon and evening. Severe storms look possible again
Thursday. Highs will range mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Clearing skies over most of western Nebraska with high pressure
to the northeast. Southerly winds will bring stratus into
southwest Nebraska through the early morning hours between KIML
and KLBF. Low level wind shear will be possible over northern
Nebraska with a strong low level southerly jet at KVTN through the
early morning. Strong southerly flow with gusts over western
Nebraska ahead of a front heading towards the region. Have
included a prob group at both KVTN and KLBF timing of frontal
boundary somewhat in question in later periods. Good chance of
severe thunderstorms with large hail and strong thunderstorm
winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Power/ET



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