Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 271745
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS






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