Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 140750
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
250 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A blend of the NAM12, RAP13, GFS1HR, HRRR and HRRREXP model data was
the basis for today`s forecast.

Morning stratus and patchy fog was indicated in the models. The
stratus is underway and the RAP model shows a surge of dry air
moving in 750-700mb which would support radiational cooling. At 07z,
fog was underway across ern Colo/Wrn KS and this should spread into
Srn Neb around 12z.

Non-diurnal temperatures are expected today associated with strong
cold air advection from a Pacific cold front. Temperatures across
Sheridan county should remain in the 40s today while Scntl Neb rises
into the lower 60s this afternoon.

All of these models show sustained northwest wind speeds of 25-30
mph and wind gusts of 40-50 mph associated with 9 mb 3-hour pressure
rises 19z-23z this afternoon. H850mb winds increase to around 50 kts
this afternoon. 500m AGL winds increase to 25 to 30 kts. It looks
like any high wind potential would develop south of the PV1.5
anomaly tracking through the Srn Panhandle and Swrn Neb. The would
place the highest wind gust potential across Nern Colo and Far
southwest Neb/Nwrn KS.

The models show isolated/scattered Showers and isolated
thunderstorms early this morning. The RAP model shows K-indices in
30s this morning across Nwrn Neb which could support isolated
thunderstorms. Showers are likely this afternoon as the cold air
undercuts warm air aloft. Most of this rain will fall across Nrn Neb
associated with wrap-around from a deepening h700mb low tracking
through Srn SD.

A check on the snow chances indicates snow showers across Nrn
Sheridan County and a small portion of Wrn Cherry County. H850mb
temperatures in the RAP model fall to around 0C for a few hours this
afternoon.

Blended guidance plus bias correction was the basis for lows in the
20s and 30s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Sunday, a prolonged warming trend is forecast as westerly
downsloping flow develops over the central high plains.  By Monday,
westerly to south flow will advect h85 temperatures of 15C or
greater across much of the cwa.  Above average highs in the 70s
appear likely and look to remain through Friday.  Dry conditions
will persist as the upper pattern transitions to zonal with no real
wave of interest until at least late Friday.  Then, the long range
models do develop a trough which would potentially bring some
precipitation back to the region.  There is a source of moisture
from the Gulf with strong southerly flow in advance of through.

Will need to monitor minimum humidity values Monday through
Wednesday with the potential of sub 20% readings across southwest
Nebraska and the eastern panhandle and at times some breezy
conditions.  Fine fuels across the forecast area are marginal due to
the recent wet period however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows low-level stratus starting to
develop and spread across southwest NEB. Latest surface plot
shows low-end VFR (between 3-4 kft) at KLBF and KOGA, elsewhere
and across south central NEB ceilings are approaching 3 kft or
are in MVFR flight category. Ceilings are expected to continue to
deteriorate rest of tonight with low-clouds spreading northwest
across western NEB. Otherwise, patchy fog anticipated across
portions of the Sandhills and southwest NEB late tonight-early
tomorrow morning.

Windy tomorrow with a frontal package - primary concerns
revolve around the strong winds behind front. Fronts advances
late morning-early afternoon, and will be accompanied with a wind
shift from the south to north-northwest. Strongest wind gusts
across southwest NEB into the central Sandhills with gusts up to
40 MPH expected. Winds lessen in the evening, albeit breezy
conditions still persisting in north central NEB and far southwest
NEB. Increasing precip chances tomorrow with best chances in
northern NEB, thus mention of precip in the KVTN TAF in the
afternoon. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in the morning
though confidence is low in this occurring.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...ET


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