Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 141719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1119 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Sharp ridge over the western CONUS between Aleutian low and cutoff
low over the Texas panhandle and Hudson Bay low. Northern Plains in
fast northwest flow aloft.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Near term solutions are in good agreement today. Had to back off
high temperatures today with cold air advection. Breezy northwest
flow today with 850mb temperatures yesterday at 5C and today near
1C. Even with clear skies and good insolation gusty northwest winds
will advect cooler air from the northwest across western and
northern Nebraska. Gusty winds will make it seem like temperatures
around 40...while afternoon high temperatures will approach the
mid to upper 40s. Have cut back some over western Cherry county
where LAPS from yesterday had low 40s over snowfield. Jet stream
to the northeast keeping much cooler temperatures at bay.

Tonight winds becoming light westerly downslope component as upper
ridge and warmer air aloft pushes east across western Nebraska.
Temperatures are expected to hold in the mid 20s under clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Upper level ridging will dominate the weather across the region
through Saturday. A Pacific airmass will be warmed further by a
moderate westerly downslope flow, and the result will be highs
reaching into the 60s. Some concern for wildfire potential
Wednesday and especially Thursday as humidity lowers to near 17
percent across southwest Nebraska Thursday afternoon. At this time
critical conditions are not expected as winds will remain
relatively light.

Attention then turns to Sunday into the first of next week. A
strong Pacific storm system will move into central and southern
California Saturday, and then move slowly east into the southern
Rockies and desert southwest Sunday. The system will move
northeast across our Sunday night into Monday. Both the ECMWF and
GFS models indicate an open Gulf with moisture streaming northward
Sunday into Monday ahead of the system. Despite decent moisture
available, models are not producing much more than scattered
showers at this time as the system is in a weakening state as it
crosses the area. The Canadian model indicates a somewhat
stronger system and more widespread rainfall. Will monitor this
closely the next few days, as this is a significant system as it
come ashore and a stronger system like the Canadian indicates is


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR is forecast for all west central Nebraska terminals through
the 18z forecast cycle. The latest guidance continues to indicate
breezy northwest winds across the region, but those winds will
decrease after 00z and become light. Overall forecast confidence
is high.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Jacobs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.