Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 262355
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
655 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WY WILL TRACK
NORTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE
/CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO/ WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
CARVED BY THE UPPER LOW...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /FGEN/ WILL
INTENSIFY FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA STARTING
MID EVENING TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST NOON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING AS
LIFT/MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASES FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE
FGEN BEGINS TO DECREASE AND SO DO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

AS FAR AS TSTMS...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AS SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THOUGH...AS
THE WARMER MOIST AIR HAS REMAINED WELL SOUTH IN KANSAS. STILL IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE STORM CONTAINING LARGE HAIL COULD
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURE WISE IT WILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...HAS H850MB TEMPS
HOVER NEAR 0C. SOME SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT THOUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT SUPPORT ALL SNOW AND ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MODELS HAVE FOCUSED ON MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS IN THE MID AND
LONG TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH WITH THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE AN INCH ACCUMULATION GOING BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH COLDER AIR AND QUICKER TURN OVER. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION ENDING NORTH AND THEN THROUGH THE NIGHT CHANCES
INCREASING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING 0C OR JUST ABOVE AND
THROUGH TUESDAY AND HAVE CHANCES OF MIX OVER NORTHWEST AND SOME
PERIODS OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM. MAINLY RAIN EVENT
BUT ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW
WITH MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KLBF
TERMINAL DUE TO A DRY SLOT. AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER
EAST...SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD DEVELOP INTO A LONG DURATION BAND
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. STILL HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO POSITION OF THE BAND AND IF THE TERMINALS
WILL BE IMPACTED...AND WILL HAVE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK



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