Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 071008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
408 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Latest IR satellite imagery and surface plot shows low and mid
level clouds across the Panhandle extending into extreme western
NEB. Further, areas of flurries are ongoing in extreme northeast
Panhandle, noted at KGRN and KIEN with visibility 10SM. Latest
water vapor imagery depicts a highly amplified pattern with an
upper level ridge extending from the West Coast into the Yukon and
Northwest Territories. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough
extends across much of the central and eastern CONUS.

Current thinking is areas where flurries are occurring, mainly in
the extreme northeast Panhandle, will be short-lived going into
the early morning hours. With respect to the large scale pattern,
pronounced meridional flow aloft will be present at the mid and
lower levels today. Temperatures aloft at lower-levels (e.g., 850
hPa) will see a little rise today. This combined with sky cover
gradually increasing from northwest to southeast limiting
insolation some this afternoon will contribute to another day with
below-normal highs, largely 4-8 degrees below normals. Meanwhile,
light breezes are expected today, albeit less gusty than
yesterday. Gusts mainly up to 20-25 MPH are expected, strongest
in the eastern Panhandle and far western NEB, given adequate
mixing based on BUFKIT soundings. Otherwise, slight chances for
snow will be possible in parts of the eastern Panhandle and
northwest NEB this afternoon. Elsewhere in western NEB, trace
precip/flurries to mix with sprinkles will be possible. This will
be aided by increasing upward moisture transport and isentropic
ascent, albeit modest. Ultimately, no accumulations are expected
with any falling snow with confidence above-average. Tonight, lows
will then be mild compared to seasonable normals. This could be
attributable to winds being elevated overnight and mostly cloudy
skies. Lows are forecast in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Sharp ridge continues along the west coast with a deep trough from
the Hudson Bay closed low across the Great Lakes and central
plains into the Desert Southwest. This positions the northern
plains in fast cold northerly flow. Strong northerly 250mb jet
100kts+ moves into western Nebraska through the early morning
hours with a strong surface pressure gradient developing from the
Nebraska Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. Highest gusts
developing through the afternoon from Chappell to Imperial around
32kts. Highs from the 50s in the Panhandle and southwest to around
40 at O`Neill. Ridge will continue to build east with warmer
temperatures moving into western Nebraska. Highs in the 50s
Saturday and Sunday. Stronger wave moves through northerly flow
sunday night with schc precipitation Monday morning to the north.
Highs Monday in the 40s and 50s. Upper jet 100kt+ remains over
north central Nebraska keeping temperatures cooler over the area
while the southwest and the Panhandle warm into the upper 50s to
around 60 with 40s over north central. Highs dropping back into
the 40s by Thursday as the Hudson Bay low brings another trough
across western Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Cold front has pushed west into eastern Wyoming and extends south
into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some stratus over the Nebraska
Panhandle but for the most part western Nebraska generally clear
skies. Front will move to the west again tomorrow with some MVFR
cigs in the Panhandle. Winds will continue out of the northwest at
5 to 15 with some gustiness through the afternoon.




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