Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181741
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1141 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low
over northern Manitoba with a trough of low pressure extending south
southwest into the Four Corners. Shortwaves were noted in advance of
this feature and led to the development of light rain across western
and north central Nebraska tonight. Coverage of this precipitation
has decreased over the past 1 to 2 hours and is expected to exit the
area by 6 AM CST. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a ridge of high
pressure extended from the eastern Great Lakes north into western
Quebec, while a second ridge extended from the Pacific NW north into
northern British Columbia. At the surface: Low pressure was located
over eastern Kansas with a cold front extending southwest into the
Texas Panhandle. A secondary cold front extended from eastern South
Dakota into northern Iowa and the northern Great lakes. Under mostly
cloudy skies, temperatures as of 3 AM CST ranged from 35 at Gordon
to 39 at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Today and Tonight...Strong subsidence and dry air will
filter into the area today behind the exiting shortwave trough. Cold
air in association with the northern cold front, will back into
northeastern Nebraska this afternoon with H85 temps falling below
zero C. Northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 MPH are expected this
afternoon and will facilitate decent mixing. Winds will begin to
decrease from west to east late this afternoon into the evening
hours. In the meantime, highs will reach the upper 40s in the
southwest to the lower 40s in the northeast. High pressure will push
into the area overnight with light westerly winds developing. With
plenty of dry air advecting into the area and clear skies, cold
temperatures will develop with teens expected in the west and lower
20s in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

For the most part an uneventful week is in store for north central
Nebraska. An upper level ridge will build across the western US on
Sunday with high pressure building into the central US. High
pressure will remain over the region through Monday keeping
conditions dry and warm. Temperatures will rise from the mid 50s on
Sunday into the low 60s on Monday.

A low pressure system will track across southern Canada on Tuesday
night dragging a cold front across the region. At this time, models
are indicating this will be a dry cold front with little in the way
of precipitation. However, there will be a temperature change across
the area with highs on Tuesday ranging from the upper 40s across
southwest Nebraska to the mid 30s across north central Nebraska.

High pressure builds south out of Canada again for the remainder of
the week with temperatures returning into the mid 50s to low 60s
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Post frontal northwest wind will continue to be breezy until
sundown, but then subside and back to westerly overnight.
Thereafter winds should remain light through the remainder of the
forecast period. Skies are forecast to be mostly clear outside of
some streaming high clouds at 25000 feet or above. Overall
forecast confidence is high due to solid short term model
agreement.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Jacobs



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