Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 212357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
657 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

A quiet conditions are expected for central Nebraska through
Monday as high pressure continues to influence the region. Skies
remain clear to mostly clear through early Monday before clouds
slowly build in on Monday afternoon ahead of the next system
arriving Monday night. Winds are also expected to increase Monday
afternoon with gusts reaching up to 30 mph across the eastern half
of the forecast area. Winds will be around 20 mph across the western
counties (west of SR-61) during the afternoon. A warming trend
returns for temperatures once again. Lows Sunday night drop into the
upper 50s for locations mainly west of a Merriman to Imperial line.
Areas east of this line will drop into the low 60s. Highs Monday
rise into the low 90s south of Antioch to O`Neill line. Locations
north of this line will generally see temperatures in the mid-90s,
with a few isolated locations in northern Cherry and Keya Paha
counties seeing temperatures approaching 95 to 97 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Consistency continues in mid and long term solutions. Have good
confidence in the going forecast. Ensemble means are at 0 or 1
standard deviations through out the forecast period for
temperatures. After a brief warm up Sunday and Monday
temperatures to fall back into the 70s through the end of the
week. Major forecast focus will be timing of cool front Tuesday.
Fropa at KLBF late Tuesday afternoon with chance pops retained.
Deeper layer moisture to the east with resultant CAPE values
higher. Forecast area remains in marginal. Waves moving through
southwest flow producing precipitation over mainly southern
Nebraska later in the week but confidence is not high with these


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period.
Mostly clear skies are currently present across most of the
forecast area, however, some portions of central NE have FEW-SCT
CU with bases around 7000 ft AGL. These CU are expected to
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating early-mid evening.
Nocturnal low-level jet is anticipated to develop tonight across
central NE. The height of LLWS is expected to start around 1000
ft with a speed of about 40-45 kts at the top. Low-level jet
should start diminishing in the early morning.

Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow. Windy conditions are
expected across most of the area tomorrow with southerly winds
picking up by late morning. Gusts will be peaking at 20-25 mph in
the afternoon across portions of central and north central NE.
Otherwise, not expecting much in terms of CU tomorrow with sky
cover FEW possible.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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