Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 100733
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
233 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CONTINUATION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING
EXTENDED NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SRN UTAH INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...A NICE 40 TO 45 KT SPEED MAX EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA NWD INTO WESTERN SD AND MT. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
A VERY WEAK CAP...HAS SUPPORTED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...STORMS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN STRENGTH GIVEN THE DECENT
DEGREE OF BULK SHEAR. AS OF 3 PM CDT...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 62 IN RAIN COOLED AIR AT
AINSWORTH...TO 90 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING
AND MAY POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ATTM CONFIDENCE IN
PCPN PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS NOT HIGH ATTM AS THE NAM SOLN
IS A TAD FARTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW LEVEL JET AND THE HRRR SOLN
PUSHES THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUIET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY 21Z THURSDAY. H85 TO H7 LAPSE
RATES WILL APPROACH 9.5 TO 10C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE
CAP WILL WEAKEN INVOF A SURFACE TROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
ATTM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE MID AFTERNOON IN THE
PANHANDLE AND TRACK EAST. ATTM...WILL CONFINE PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS LOCATIONS IN THE EAST ARE
STRONGLY CAPPED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY AND WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...WITH 35
TO 45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THURSDAY EVENING. INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM SWRN NEBRASKA INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE...HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TO 20 TO 30 KTS OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL EITHER IN SOUTHWESTERN KS TO SERN
NEBRASKA PER THE NAM SOLN OR FROM NWRN KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PER THE GFS SOLN. THE GFS GENERATES A NICE AREA OF POST
FRONTAL MID LEVEL LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THIS IS
LARGELY ABSENT IN THE NAM SOLN. EVEN WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE AND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KS...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS SOLN IS
HARD TO IGNORE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE POPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT...ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE. THETA E
RIDGING AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
AS WELL LEADING TO 1500 TO 2500 J/KG CAPES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE QUICKLY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AREA IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION EAST SAT EVENING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE WITH FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG
NRN STREAM COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DO FIRE TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH THE
THETA E AXIS...SHOULD STAY MAINLY OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN THE NWRLY STEERING WINDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND POPS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

IFR CEILING HAVE ENDED AT KLBF...WHICH WERE MOST LIKELY INDUCED BY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TERMINAL. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REVAIL UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
INPACTS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 5SM
TSRA AT KVTN FROM 23Z-03Z AND A PROB30 FOR KLBF FROM 01Z-05Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...ROBERG








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