Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 251941
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
241 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 21Z FROM KAIA-
KLBF WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW UNDERWAY ACROSS SWRN NEB.

THERE IS A MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABLIZATION ON THE NRN COLO
FRONT RANGE AND LARAMIE RANGE DEVELOPS AROUND 21Z WHICH COULD MOVE
INTO THE SRN/CNTL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. SPC SUGGESTED A MARGINAL
HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
PRESUMABLY THE ATM REMAINS CAPPED ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGESTED ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT A STRONG CAP WHICH
WEAKENS AFTER 09Z.

HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 60S...NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NRN NEB. RETURN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT HOLD UP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH WHERE THE NAM AND ECM SHOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING. THE DEEPER EASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SRN NEB
MAY FAVOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN VS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PLACE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

BEGINNING 12Z TUESDAY.  THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS IS INCREASING FOR TUESDAY.  THIS THREAT IS
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN GOING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  IN
ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT...MEASURABLE RAINFALL...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE MODERATE OR HEAVY IS FORECAST.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION
WHERE UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE RESULT OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EJECT A SERIES OF WAVES/UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.  SEVERAL OF THE
WAVES ACTUALLY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND CLOSE
OFF A LOW WHICH THEN SLOWLY MEANDER THROUGH THE REGION.  THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW ARRIVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON
TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE A SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING TO THE EAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  DPVA...WAA...INITIAL HIGH PLAINS SPEED MAX
AND GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ON THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
REGION. THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE MODELS
DEPICT INCREASING CAPE AS THE LOW LIFTS THE FRONT NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE TRIAD OF
TYPICAL THREATS.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE MOST LIKELY GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80...AND EAST THROUGH CUSTER COUNTY INTO WHEELER
COUNTY...WITH A TORNADO THREAT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND EAST /SW
NEB/ AND EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW
FAVORABLE 0-1KM SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER. THE CURRENT DAY TWO SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK NOW HAS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE ENHANCED
RISK WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST AT OUR SOUTHEASTER DOORSTEP. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER
MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK FURTHER WEST INTO THE LOW...OR IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR GENERALLY THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND MOST OF THE SOUTH...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE SUGGESTING A FAR LESSER CHANCE OF STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MADE LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODELS PROJECT SOME DRYING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...SO THE GREATEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.  A
COOLER AIRMASS IS SEEN WITH THIS LOW...AND IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH ACROSS NW NEB FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST THOUGH.

THE LOW IS DRAWN EAST ON THURSDAY LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS...HOWEVER THE REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SW ORGANIZES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH TONIGHT/S
RUN THAN COMPARED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE RESULT IS THE SAME.
INCREASING POPS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLID RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND AS THE LOW SLOWS AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED
BY THE PREVIOUS COOL AIRMASS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO
REDEVELOP...SO WILL GO WITH AN ISO MENTION

THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL ADD
UP...ESPECIALLY IF AN AREA IS IMPACTED BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION.  RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND COULD APPROACH A COUPLE
INCHES IN LOCATIONS.  AT THIS POINT THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS NORTH HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEEING 1-2 INCHES OF TOTAL QPF. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS COULD GO BELOW 1000 FT AGL
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE KLBF TAF SITE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z MONDAY...AND
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR



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