Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221110
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXCEPT FOR WHEN RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA CEILINGS WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. IN THE BAND OF RAIN...CEILINGS OF 3000-4000 FEET
ARE LIKELY. VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3SM MOST AREAS THOUGH
SOME 2SM IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AFTER 00Z...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNLIMITED.
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BE LESS THAN 15KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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