Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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748
FXUS63 KLBF 231725
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1225 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

At 08z...surface low pressure was centered from northeast Iowa into
southern Wisconsin. An upper level low was center over central
Minnesota. A few showers extended across southern Minnesota into the
eastern Dakotas. Skies were becoming mostly cloudy in north central
Nebraska while remaining mostly clear in the southwest. Temperatures
ranging in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Today/Tonight...An upper level low centered in southern Minnesota
will drop south into central Iowa today. Weak disturbances on the
backside of the low will bring mainly a slight chance for showers
today to western Nebraska. Most models generate very little
precipitation with limited coverage. The layer below 850 mb will
remain fairly dry today. A slight chance mid morning in the north
central will bring slight chances southward into southwest Nebraska
this afternoon. Higher pops near 30 percent located in the eastern
four counties late morning through the afternoon. No mention for
showers tonight, except the far eastern zones until 8 pm cdt. Skies
will clear out from west to east this evening and overnight. Weak
high pressure will bring another chilly night. Lowest temperatures
from 34 to 37 degrees from the northwest and central Sandhills could
bring patchy frost late tonight. Elsewhere, temperatures in the
upper 30s to near 40.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A slow moving upper level low moving east to west across southern
Canada will be the main weather player during the long term period.
To start, Wednesday into Thursday, ridging aloft will build across
the area ahead of the upper low. This spells warmer conditions, with
highs in the upper 60s and 70s and mainly dry conditions.

Friday into Saturday the upper low moves into Manitoba. A
disturbance will dive southeast on the backside of the upper low
across the northern Rockies and into our area by Friday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday
afternoon and Friday night as this passes through the area. A weak
cold front will also accompany the disturbance, with highs in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. General northwest flow aloft dominates Sunday,
with the ECMWF advertising a surge of warmer air at 850mb and highs
in the mid to upper 70s. For now will keep around 70 degrees for the
highs with an outside chance of a shower or thunderstorm across
northern Nebraska.

Another disturbance rotates south-southeast around the upper low
Sunday night into Monday. Again a slight chances for showers as this
occurs, with highs cooling back a couple of degrees into the 65 to
70 degree range. All in all not a bad looking Memorial Day weekend
weatherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Increased winds and a lowering of ceiling will be the main
aviation concerns for the next day. As clouds increase this
afternoon, isolated showers are expected to develop. At this time,
confidence in showers impacting either TAF site is low and
therefore, have been left out of the TAF forecast. The main
concern for showers will be east of a Broken Bow to Springview
line, and even then, shower chances will be under 30 percent.
Winds decrease and clouds scatter out overnight. Clear to mostly
clear skies and winds under 5 knots are expected by Wednesday
morning at both terminals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Rivers of concern include: South Platte, and Elkhorn. The South
Platte river is expected to go up from northeast CO to Roscoe, NE to
North Platte, NE attributable to heavy precip and snow melt across
eastern CO. At Roscoe, the river has begun to rise and is forecast
to rise above Action Stage (three-quarters bankfull) on Wednesday,
and above Action Stage Friday at North Platte. Those with interests
near or on the South Platte river should stay tuned for updates.
Lastly, the Elkhorn River near Atkinson remains slightly above
action stage, but should fall below tonight. Downstream, the north
and south fork of the Elkhorn river near Ewing continues to rise,
but will remain below action stage.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Roberg



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