Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 250534
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM POISED TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEGINNING EARLY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. 18Z WATER VAPOR AND PV15 ANALYSIS REVEALS
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH OF INTEREST IS
DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...REVEALING PATCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BREAKDOWN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER BL WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS OF GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS...FORCING STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ATOP
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MIDDAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CENTERED NEAR H7 WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR QPF...FALLING ALL AS
SNOW AS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED DGZ...SO OVERALL
IT APPEARS THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE START OF
THE SNOW...AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES...INCLUDING OUR WESTERN SANDHILLS FROM
DEUEL COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY FROM 18Z
THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AS -8C
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ONGOING WINTER STORM IMPACTING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE MAIN LOW
AND PUSH ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE IS
DECENT WITH PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE..ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY AS THE
18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS INCREASED THE LIFT IN THE DGZ FROM 25.00Z TO
25.06Z AND RESULTS IN MORE QPF THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN EARLIER. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. FOR NOW LOOKING AT 2 TO 4
INCHES...BUT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO UP THIS BY A COUPLE OF INCHES
WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO MOVE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOW SNOW ARE LIKELY.
THOSE TRAVELERS ACROSS THIS AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL NEED TO KEEP UPDATED TO THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GEM...OPEN
THE LOW AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GEM IS SLOW TO EJECT
THE LOW AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS A TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A LITTLE EARLY FOR HEADLINES DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW
PACK MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN BUT SOME SUN WILL HELP.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED SUNDAY TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS ARE BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C...AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO. SOME OF THE RAW DATA
SUGGEST HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS RANGING FROM
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 800 TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB 30 GROUP ATTM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5000
TO 10000 FT AGL THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z
WITH CIGS AROUND 1200 FT AGL AND VISBYS AS LOW AS 2 SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






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