Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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423
FXUS63 KLBF 081755
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1155 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF FRONTOGENESIS IS DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WRN SD AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB AND THIS
WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND TWD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE VTN TAF AS A
TEMPO GROUP AFTER 091200. HAVE LEFT OUT OF KLBF TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE



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