Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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958
FXUS63 KLBF 152346
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
546 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Arctic high pressure will build southeast across central South
Dakota overnight and down into the Southern Plains Tuesday.  As
such, winds will begin to decrease overnight with clear skies in
place. This sets the stage for a good radiational event.  The latest
guidance kept overnight lows close to the previous forecast, which
suggests sub-zero readings across the entire CWA.  Locations along
and north of Interstate 80 will see readings minus ten or colder.
Considering winds will still be in the 5-15 mph range overnight, our
wind chill advisory looks like a sure bet with some areas across our
northern tier seeing wind chills of minus 30 or colder.  For this we
have upgraded the wind chill advisory to a wind chill warning for
Cherry county east through Holt County and to include the counties
southeast through Custer.  The warning will go into effect at 04z
and both the advisory/warning will remain in effect 18z tomorrow,
though readings will improve rapidly with some sun and lesser wind.

Tuesday will see the beginning of a pattern shift.  It`ll still be
cold, but return flow at the surface will help begin to push highs
upward, especially across our west.  The latest guidance shows
temperatures ranging from the upper single digits across our far
east, to the lower 20s over the far west.  We anticipate full
sunshine with lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Models in good agreement in the near term solution but mid and
extended solutions have some noise in them. With that said have fair
confidence in the forecast. Highs and lows will dependent on snow on
the ground in the mid term and as it melts questions return for
stratus and fog.

1048mb surface high over eastern Nebraska tomorrow night with return
southwesterly flow into western Nebraska under clear skies.
Temperatures holding in the single digits above zero.

West to southwest flow continues through Friday evening as ridge to
the west builds east through mid week. Highs Wednesday still
conservative in the 30s and 40s with snow cover. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday in the 40s and 50s. Trough to the west sends a
Pacific cold front through Friday night. Temperatures fall back into
the 30s for highs on Saturday as snow continues. Upper trough will
hang around through Sunday with on and off snow. High temperatures
in the 30s and lows in the upper teens. At the moment doesn`t look
to be a large system. Positive tilted fast moving system and
moisture advection further east of the forecast area through
Missouri. 700mb does close off and could see a couple of inches of
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Gusty northwest winds will slowly diminish over the next couple
hours. Winds are expected to be near 10 knots by 03 to 06Z Tuesday.
VFR conditions will then prevail the remainder of the forecast with
just a few high clouds around through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ004-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071.

Wind Chill Warning from 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ005>010-026>029-038-094.

Wind Chill Advisory until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening for
NEZ005>010-026>029-038-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Kulik



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