187
FXUS63 KLBF 091724
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A threat for a few strong or severe thunderstorms are
  possible this afternoon into the evening.

- A somewhat better threat for scattered strong to severe
  storms exists Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Friday into Saturday behind
  a cold front.

- Warmer Sunday through Tuesday with a few thunderstorms
  possible early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak shortwave disturbance will approach the western Nebraska by
mid to late this afternoon. Winds aloft increase some compared to
yesterday, with continued moist low-level southeast flow at the
surface. With the slight increase in winds aloft, overall shear
looks better somewhat better for storm organization, with further
support from the weak disturbance approaching the area. Appears
initial isolated storm development will be within favorable upslope
low-level flow regime across northwest Nebraska along/just ahead of
a surface trough. A well mixed, hot, boundary layer will exist where
initial storm develop occurs. The airmass downstream will be quite
unstable due to the hot temperatures, dew points in the 60s, and
steep mid-level lapse rates. CAMS vary on the amount of storm
coverage, which does not lead to a high-confidence forecast in terms
of location and just how many storms there will be. The HRRR seems
to be the most bullish, with initial storm develop across northwest
Nebraska mid to late afternoon. As storms move eastward late this
afternoon through the favorable environment...would expect at least
storms to become scattered as they cross the Sandhills/north central
into portions of southwest Nebraska. With the hot, well mixed
boundary layer, gusty, possibly severe outflow wind gusts appear to
be the main concern. Scattered storms/broken line with a continued
gusty wind threat will move across central Nebraska early this
evening before exiting the area mid to late evening.

The upper level ridging begins to flatten Thursday with a stronger
wave emerging from the Rockies into the area Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night. A cold front will be associated with this wave and
will be the focus for more widespread thunderstorm development. The
cold front should be entering eastern Wyoming into northern Colorado
by mid to late afternoon. Storms will first focus along this
boundary across the higher terrain to the west of the area. Storms
should increase in coverage as they move into western Nebraska by
late afternoon. The airmass across central into western Nebraska
will be quite moist, warm and very unstable. Damaging winds appear
to be the main threat, with secondary concern being large hail. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially by early evening
when east-southeast low-level flow is expected to increase across
western/central Nebraska. An MCS could emerge by mid evening as
storms track eastward through central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Cooler weather is expected in a post-frontal environment Friday into
Saturday. Scattered showery weather looks possible Friday with mid-
level FGEN developing as cooler air aloft filters into the area.
This weakens by Saturday with rain chances decreasing/ending.

As mentioned it will be cooler, with highs Friday only forecast to
reach the lower 70s across portions of northwest Nebraska. Most
areas should be around 80F on Saturday. Upper level ridging then
begins to nose northeastward across the desert southwest Sunday
through Tuesday...with a return to highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s. A few thunderstorms will be possible early next week with any
weak disturbances that are embedded within the flow in the
mid/upper flow on the northern periphery of the upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Strong wind gusts from thunderstorms will be the main aviation
concern this evening across north central into central Nebraska.
Thunderstorms are expected to become scattered and could develop
into a line of thunderstorms this evening, mainly across north
central into central Nebraska. Have included a TEMPO for
VRB20G35KT P6SM -TSRA at KVTN from 00Z-02Z. At KLBF, thunderstorms
will be more prevalent to the north and east of the terminal,
and have included VCTS from 00Z-02Z, with confidence low on
impacts from thunderstorms. Otherwise expect VFR conditions,
except near thunderstorms this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg