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000
FXUS63 KLBF 232316
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
616 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS RIDGE
WILL RETREAT WEST AND BECOME REORIENTED PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. IN TIME A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
WHICH WILL DROP CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOUD FREE
SUBSIDENCE AREA ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
COMPLEX OF STORMS. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FOUR
CORNERS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE WAS
MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA. TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING...AND EXPECT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE OUT OF THESE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE GOOD INSTABILITY THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING ISOLATED. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF A MERRIMAN
TO OGALLALA LINE...AS HI RES MODELS INDICATE A FEW STORMS SURVIVING
THAT FAR EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE MONTANA WAVE SHOULD AID IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. THOSE STORMS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA /ONEILL NORFOLK AREA/ VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER SURGE OF HOT AIR WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES WEST OF THE DRY
LINE...OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. COOLER TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS 88 TO 95. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER AT THESE LOCATIONS
HOWEVER. COULD BE A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTING MUCH...AS H700 MB TEMPS WILL BE 16 TO 17C AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX
MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS WRN SD LATE THURSDAY AFTN. THIS WOULD LIKELY
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE LEADING THE WAY PILING UP CAPE AND SHEAR ACROSS NRN NEB
LATE THURSDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WHICH MOVES OFF FRIDAY AFTN
SETTING UP RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS WRN NEB ALLOWING ANOTHER COMPLEX
TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
TRACKS THE STORMS THRU NRN NEB FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SECOND PUSH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
FCST AREA. THUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FRIDAY COOL A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY.

A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THURSDAY EVENING INDICATES
A RANGE OF 25 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THE NAM AND GFS WERE
THE SOUTHERN MOST SOLNS ACROSS NRN NEB. THIS SHEAR INCREASES TO 30
TO 50 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 500 MB WINDS INCREASE TO THE SAME SPEED.
AROUND 2000 J/KG OF 800 MB COMPUTED CAPE WOULD BE AVAILABLE BOTH
NIGHTS WITH K INDICES OF 35 TO 40 C. ALL OF THESE VALUES APPEAR
MODEST RELATIVE TO THE BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHICH
SUPPORTS THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR NRN NEB PROVIDED
BY SPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S DURING THIS
PERIOD. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE RETURN HAS SET UP IN THE FASTER
ECM. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND WAITS UNTIL TUESDAY TO DO THIS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK CAP AND RETURN MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. THE CLIMO FOR THIS
PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN COLO SO RAIN
CHANCES WOULD APPEAR MORE LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF AND KVTN TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR
12KT WILL INCREASE TO 16014G21KT AT KVTN BY 06Z...THEN 19016G23KT
BY 15Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER
21Z/24TH. CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG