Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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858
FXUS63 KLBF 161035
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
435 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

A winter storm is currently impacting the region. The main
hazardous weather concerns in the short term period are freezing
precipitation and snow amounts. Of which, concern is more so the
former than the latter. Snow reports have been scant to non-
existent tonight with precipitation mainly being observed as
freezing rain or freezing drizzle this evening into the small
hours. While a slight reprieve is occurring over south central NEB
presently, freezing rain/drizzle has been mainly occurring
elsewhere. Dry air hasn`t impeded precipitation as previously
thought to the far north so a winter weather advisory was issued
for Keya Paha and Cherry counties wherein glazing is now expected
attributable to a light icing. Total accumulations of ice is
anticipated to be low in those two counties though (up to one
tenth of an inch).

Precipitation type and subsequent amounts (total ice accumulation
and snow) were the main forecast challenges. Precipitation type
is expected to transition across southwest NEB into north central
NEB from freezing precipitation to a wintry mix to snow (freezing
rain or freezing drizzle to snow in morning). Wherein freezing
rain is anticipated to be a threat through the early morning. A
band of heavier precipitation is expected to develop across
central NEB with it extending westward into western NEB with snow
expected as the predominant p-type. However, guidance continues
to have difficult with the location of the band along with
differences in thermal profiles. Current thinking for snow amount
does not differ from the previous forecast much -- highest
amounts totaling up to 3 inches across the extreme southern and
southeast portion of the local forecast area. Back edge of
precipitation is expected to begin pushing eastward into southwest
NEB by mid afternoon with precipitation coming to the end by the
early evening across the remainder of the forecast area. Other
sensible weather concerns with respect to winds are low wherein
modest breezes out of the northwest are expected late morning-
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Very mild week ahead for western and north central Nebraska.
H850mb temperatures rise into the 5C to 10C range Wednesday into
Thursday, and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s can be expected
those two days. A bit cooler for the weekend, but still should see
highs around the 40 degree mark. A series of strong Pacific storm
systems will begin moving onto the west coast starting Wednesday,
with the first crossing our area Friday into Saturday. Both the
GFS and ECMWF bring this through as a negatively tilted upper
trough, but moisture is rather limited and it does not appear that
widespread heavy precipitation will occur at this time. What
precipitation does occur will likely be a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Band of widespread light freezing rain will continue north of
interstate 80 through the early morning hours. Leading edge from
KAIA to KTIF is moving north into much drier air and have only
included VCSH for KVTN taf. KLBF is on the backside with areas of
freezing rain becoming less organized. Have use a tempo group for
lingering fzra. Low clouds stratus ifr cigs and possibly some mvfr
visbys through the early morning before snow beginning at klbf
through 15z-23z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NEZ007>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
for NEZ005-006-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power



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