Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181959
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A cold front moved through the region today, which plummeted high
temperatures back down to a mere 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Winds were also gusty along and behind the front,
those winds are expected to ease before nightfall.

There was a fairly sharp inversion this morning, that should reform
again tonight, though not as sharp due to the return of some
southerly winds off the deck. These winds will keep the airmass
mixed and mild across much of sandhills, where some inversions may
reform across parts of central and southern Nebraska with lows
dropping into the 30`s in some of the lower spots.

It will be sunny and warm again on Thursday with highs rising into
the upper 70s to near 80. Winds will be out of the south at around
10 to 15 mph with locally higher gusts. Relative humidity will be a
bit higher though, so that should keep fire concerns relatively
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

The extended period will be highlighted by anomalously warm
temperatures Friday, followed by a cooldown to near normal on
Saturday. Deep uper level low pressure will persist across
Alaska/Gulf of Alaska. This will contribute to mild temperatures
near normal or above normal through Wednesday of next week. Dry
conditions as well, except for a slight chance Friday night into
Saturday Morning, mainly in north central Nebraska.

On Friday, the main upper trough axis will cross the Rockies,
with a thermal ridge strengthening across the Central and Northern
Plains. with a fairly tight pressure gradient, southerly winds
will range from 15 to 30 mph near and east of highway 83. Highs
will reaching the upper 70s to around 80. A cold front passage
Friday night after midnight, with northwest winds 15 to 30 mph.
Then Saturday, northwest winds gusting to 30 mph. There remains
at least a slight chance for showers Friday night into Saturday
morning, mainly north central. With the lower levels fairly dry,
mainly just trace amounts possible. Highs cool on Saturday to the
upper 50s northwest and lower 60s central and southeast. This is
very close to normal for highs.

On Sunday, upper height rises and a downsloping westerly wind as
the trough axis moves across the Mississippi Valley. Highs warm
back up to the upper 60s to around 70. Another cold front and
northwest flow to keep highs in the low to mid 60s Monday and
Tuesday, which is near to slightly above normal.

Another cold front moves into western Nebraska Monday, although
highs still reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, as the cooler air to
still remain across the Dakotas and Montana. This cooler air will
arrive Monday night into Tuesday as an upper trough amplifies
across the Great Lakes. The GFS is more amplified than the
European model, with cooler 850mb temps of only 1C-5C. This
appears too cold. Therefore forecast highs Tuesday from the upper
50s to lower 60s, to remain near previous forecast highs. For
Wednesday, another warmup expected, as the next cold front exits
the southern Canadian Prairies, and begins to move into Montana
and North Dakota. Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A cold front moved through VTN a little after 14Z this morning
and then moved through LBF around 16Z. Wind gusts were from the
North between 25 and 30KT with the passage of the front. It will
continue to move south and will be across the KS border by 20Z.
Winds will continue out of the NNE for the next few hours behind
the front. Thereafter, winds will weaken at the surface and skies
will clear. There will be another push of lower level SWerly
winds right off the deck that could cause some LLWS issues at VTN
for a few hours overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Allen



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