Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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354
FXUS63 KLBF 181118
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AT 07Z...THE STORM SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND THE FRONT WAS OUT OF NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE
SIGNALED A COLD AIR MASS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA LINE. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S NEAR THE CENTER OF THAT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS COMES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN BRINGING
MOISTURE TO THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
INDICATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF MOIST AIR DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS IN THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO WITH THE GFS BEING THE
SLOWEST AND DEVELOPING THE PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z WHILE THE
ECMWF...THE GEMNH AND THE NAM12 BRINGING IT ON BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z.

ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
WIND WITH THE RETURN FLOW WILL CUSHION THE TEMPERATURE FALLS
TONIGHT IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. LOW 30S ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE LIGHTER WIND AND LATER CLOUDINESS ARE
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF CHERRY COUNTY AND THE COUNTIES EAST OF THERE AS
FAR EAST AS BOYD AND HOLT COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY TUESDAY EXPECTED. COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH
WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB AND
COULD SEE SOME MORNING FROST STILL. MEANWHILE INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A LITTLE. AS FOR HIGHS...MOS
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...INCREASING
MOISTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVING...RAIN SHOULD BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.

RAIN CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTION...850 MB TEMPS COOL TO
AROUND ZERO C OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
SOUNDING CONFIRM ONLY A NARROW BAND NEAR THE SURFACE OF TEMPS
ABOVE ZERO. THUS CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN SNOW MIX...ALTHOUGH
PARTS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY COULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SOME ACCUMULATION CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT IF ANY AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE SYSTEM LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY
SLOT DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SW NEB. WRAP AROUND
CONTINUES HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPS STILL COLD
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS
TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. MODELS PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH IT MAY REMAIN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST...THUS LOW POPS FOR NOW.

BETTER CHANCE ARRIVES FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE TRAIN OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTINUES. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK WET AS THE
LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CEILINGS ARE LESS THAN 2000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING
VTN AND 2000-3000 FEET AGL INCLUDING LBF. THE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE MORNING AND BECOME SCATTERED BY 18Z.
AFTER THAT...CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL WITH
UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF VTN-LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 8 AM CDT /7 AM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ005>010-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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