Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 120919
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
319 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

At 09z...Surface high pressure ridged southward from the Northern
Plains southward into central Nebraska and central Kansas. with the
approaching disturbance, radar returns indicated from eastern
Wyoming and western panhandle into northeast Colorado. Torrington
Wyoming and Alliance Nebraska reporting light snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

An upper level disturbance currently located from eastern Idaho into
southwest Montana, will follow northwest flow aloft today, and track
across western Nebraska. This will be accompanied by weak isentropic
upglide and low pressure deficits in the 290K and 295K surfaces. The
layer from 650mb-800mb is forecast to be saturated, although limited
by a layer of -7 to -10C temperatures in the lower half of the
saturated layer. So, while the dendritic growth zone will be limited,
model agree that weak lift will be favorable for light snow chances
today. POPs of at least 40 percent are forecast, with a period of
likely POPs from the central Sandhills into eastern areas from late
morning through the afternoon. Snowfall amounts from a dusting to
around a half inch, and locally an inch possible in the central
portions of the area. A reinforcing shot of cold air will limit
highs today to 5-10 above northeast to near 25 extreme southwest
areas. Light southeast winds will back to the east and northeast in
the afternoon.

For tonight, northwest flow aloft with mostly cloudy skies to
continue. While models really aren`t generating any QPFs, a few
flurries are possible. Lows remain near previous forecast from near
5 above far southwest to around 5 below northeast. Corresponding
wind chills to fall to around 15 below in the east overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

A cold day expected Saturday as residual arctic air remains in
place across the area. By afternoon surface low pressure will
begin to deepen across western SD in response to an approaching
disturbance across the northern Rockies. A warm front will develop
across western Nebraska to the south of the low, and will advance
east across the area Saturday night. Some light snow is possible
as the front advances east across northern Nebraska. Appears the
best chances will be over northeast Nebraska where stronger lift
develops after midnight. Most of the snow accumulation, 1 to 2
inches, will remain in that area. The new off hour 06Z NAM has
shifted more of the snow westward towards the O`Neill area, so
we`ll definitely keep watch to see if the models continue this
trend.

A brief reprieve from this latest cold snap is expected Sunday as
mild Pacific air moves east across the area in the wake of the warm
front. Highs may approach 50 degrees across far southwest Nebraska,
with mid 30s across eastern portions of north central Nebraska.

Sunday night a strong Arctic cold front will dive south across
Nebraska as a large upper level low drops south into the Great Lakes
region. Airmass will be quite cold behind this front, near -26C at
850mb across Iowa by Monday afternoon. A period of light snow is
likely Sunday night along with 20 to 25 mph north wind gusts as the
front dives south. At this time less than 1/2 inch of accumulation
is expected, and mostly just across northern Nebraska.

Cold air will linger into Tuesday, then as upper level ridging
builds east during the middle and latter parts of the week, mild
Pacific air will flush out the Arctic air. For a few days at
least.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

VFR is expected all areas until 12z Friday morning. Thereafter, an
upper level disturbance, currently across MT, will move through
Nebraska. MVFR/IFR in snow and low CIGS is expected along and
north of highway 2. MVFR in snow and low cigs is expected south of
highway 2. Flight conditions are generally expected to improve to
VFR/MVFR in low CIGS around 00z-03z Friday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC



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