Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170518 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1118 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 555 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017
Forecast updated to drop highlights with precipitation ended.

UPDATE Issued at 417 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Rapid drying is occurring with the onslaught of drier air from the
north. This and warming temperatures has improved the ice
situation across parts of North Central Nebraska and several
counties have been excluded from the winter storm warning in
effect until 6 pm CST this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Quiet conditions are on the way for north central Nebraska in the
next day. First, the wintry mix will continue through the afternoon
mainly along and east of a line from North Platte to O`Neill. While
some current surface observations are reporting snow, temperatures
will hover near freezing for the remainder of the afternoon. This
will lead to the chance for some freezing rain/ice pellets/sleet to
mix into the snow. As low pressure slides northeastward,
precipitation will quickly end from west to east. Have decided to
cancel the western fringe of our warning area with the afternoon
package as precipitation has moved out of the area and roads for the
most part are clear of ice. Overnight low temperatures drop into the
low to mid teens. Pine Ridge region could drop into the single
digits as clouds clear out overnight up there.

Dry conditions continue through Tuesday as high pressure builds
across the northern Plains. Plenty of sunshine will allow
temperatures to warm up into the upper 30s and low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

The models have cooled the warm-up Wednesday and Thursday a few
degrees. This could be the result of the ice and snow storm which
affected the Central Plains Sunday and Monday. Sfc winds will be
west and southwest and this would advect air across ice and snow

There is good continuity for a weak disturbance lifting through the
Srn Missouri basin late Friday and Saturday. The GFS and ECM show
this disturbance affecting areas mostly east of highway 83. The GFS
continues to show the potential for a period of rain...light
freezing rain and snow. POPs for this event have increased to around
40 percent. Note the period of warm weather preceding the system
could set the stage for road surfaces to cross below the freezing
mark in some areas Friday night.

Cooler weather follows Sunday as a strong storm system moves through
the Srn Plains and mid south. This system is forecast to move into
the Ohio Valley and deepen below 990mb Monday which would pull
arctic air south through the Upper midwest. H850mb temperatures fall
to 0C to -5C as a result and h850mb winds increase to 30kt to 40kt
Sunday and weaken Monday.

Overall the general circulation pattern is very active...almost
spring-like with 3 storms affecting the Cntl/Srn Plains during the
next 7 days. Both the GFS and ECM continue to advertise a fourth
storm affecting the Central Plains beyond day 7.

The temperature forecast follows the model blend plus bias
correction. Bias correction suggested increasing max temps a degree
or two. The cooler model solns now suggest highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday which cool to the 30s and 40s
Friday through Monday. There was little or no change in the minimum
temperature forecast with lows in the teens and 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Mostly clear skies over central and western Nebraska with overcast
skies over eastern Nebraska late tonight. P6SM SKC will hold for
the west with west to northwest winds under 10kts through Tuesday
afternoon. Visual flight rules.




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