Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 150412

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1112 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

There will be at least a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms tonight through Friday across the forecast area. An
upper trough will remain anchored across the Great Basin in the
western U.S. This will keep a weak surface frontal boundary across
the areas from near Ogallala through O`Neill tonight. While this
will be a weak focus, southwest flow aloft with weak disturbances
embedded will bring 30 percent chances behind the boundary for
areas west of highway 83. Deep layer shear will be fairly weak
this evening with 800mb capes 500-1000 j/kg this evening. While
instability will remain at or above 500 j/kg, the attendant
disturbance looks to lift from northern Nebraska into South Dakota
after midnight. This will cause pops to end across southwest
Nebraska, with decreasing pops north and east overnight. With
skies from partly to mostly cloudy, overnight lows fairly mild in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Friday, a 20-30 percent chance
mainly north central, with models mostly dry through the day,
until late afternoon. By late afternoon, a focus for surface based
storms to develop along the weak surface boundary, especially
from Broken Bow north through Bassett. Moderate instability from
1500 to 2500 j/kg east of this line, with deep layer shear 30 to
35 knots. This supportive of a few strong storms, which could
briefly become severe prior to 00Z Saturday. Highs to contrast
from the upper 70s northwest to near 90 southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Chances for strong thunderstorms continues Friday evening east of
Bassett through Broken Bow. Thunderstorms may be strong to briefly
severe, with locally damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter
size. Thunderstorms should diminish or end after midnight, with
shower chances across the northwest as the upper trough and cold
front advances into the forecast area. Lows from near 45 northwest
to near 55 southeast, indicative of the cooler airmass settling
in. Just a slight chance for showers northern Nebraska on Saturday
with much cooler highs from the mid 60s north central and 70 to
75 south. Skies to become mostly sunny as subsidence settles in.
Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph in the morning diminish into the

For Saturday night, lows from the upper 30s northwest and mid to
upper 40s southeast. While patchy frost is possible in the
northwest, mos guidance suggests lows to be a few degrees too
warm for this to occur. Slightly warmer Sunday in the lower to mid
70s with a return to southeast winds. The weak surface front will
lift north Sunday night, with a slight chance for showers and a
few thunderstorms across the Southeast zones. Pops were lowered
slightly from previous forecast.

Dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday night. A deeper
upper trough will dig into the western U.S., with weak upper
ridging and southwest flow persisting across the Central Plains.
This will keep highs in the mid 80s Monday and Tuesday, then
cooling to the upper 70s Thursday behind a pacific cold front with
a slight chance for showers.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Radar display over the last hour shows showers and storms
increasing in coverage across southwest NEB with frequent cloud
to ground lightning noted. Elsewhere, showers and relatively
weaker thunderstorms are located upstream in northeast CO and the
southern Panhandle. Overall, this activity is expected to move
across portions of southwest and west central NEB into the
Sandhills and north central NEB through the small hours into
early morning tomorrow. Of which, the isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to be waning and/or exiting the
area during the early morning hours.

Otherwise, stratus with sub-VFR ceilings are expected to develop
across northwest NEB and parts of northern NE early morning into
the early afternoon. Ceilings as low as IFR will be possible.
Winds will shift tomorrow as a surface low evolves and moves from
extreme southwest NEB to far north central NEB. Strongest winds
expected over central NEB tomorrow afternoon under southerly flow
with gusts up to 25 MPH.




LONG TERM...Roberg
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