Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 070851
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

AT H5 RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH HIGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. BROAD TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONGER HUDSON BAY LOW. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT...DISTURBANCE...MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NORTHEAST
KANSAS TO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THEN A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM
KLEX TO KBIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

COOL FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
AND EAST THOUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA COOLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. 700MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA 14C TO 16C. AS DISTURBANCE OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH PLATTE VICINITY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z AS
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ONCE AGAIN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KOGA TO BRADY. THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE FRONT AND CLEARING SKIES OVER
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
IN POST COLD FRONT ENVIRONMENT. DRIER CANANDIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE 55 TO 62
DEGREE RANGE.

RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...SO SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY. WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AROUND 30 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER...WITH MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
HIGHER DEW POINTS POOL TO THE NORTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER
STATIONARY FRONT.
KLBFHWOLBF
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS MT/ND MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPING FROM 15Z ONWARD...MAINLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FCST AREA 03Z-06Z MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC



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