Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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808
FXUS63 KLBF 030014
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
714 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAINSHOWERS BRIEFLY DROPPING
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR CATEGORIES. AFTER THE SHOWERS CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORIES ALONG WITH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG



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