Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200001
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
601 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Quiet weather is expected over the next day ahead of a busy end to
the weekend. Dry weather is expected through noon Saturday with no
expected impacts to our forecast area. Precipitation begins to move
into the area shortly after noon Saturday beginning across northern
Sheridan county. At this time, precipitation is expected to start
off as rain or a rain/snow mix as daytime high temperatures rise
into the mid-30s. Precipitation will slowly change over to all snow
as temperatures drop to near freezing towards sunset. The majority
of the next system will arrive after 6pm Saturday as it moves off
the Rockies and impacts the rest of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

A storm system located across the Great Basin early Saturday
evening, will track east overnight and exhibit a neutral tilt as a
closed low develops just east of the Four Corners. A broad
deformation zone will extend from sern Wy/nctrl CO into
northwestern Nebraska overnight. This deformation band is
forecast to persist Sunday morning west of Valentine through
Ogallala an could easily drop 2-3 inches of snowfall in that time
period alone. The upper low is forecast to deepen in swrn KS
early Sunday afternoon and track into north cntrl KS early Sunday
evening. This will be favorable for a deformation band and TROWAL
to develop near and east of a line from North Platte through
Ainsworth.

The models also suggest jet coupling and all this sets the stage
for the potential of heavy snowfall. This will be a fairly large
winter storm and even though the upper low will track northeast
near 18 kts, the size of the system means accumulating snow could
last for up to 18 hours. Confidence has increased sufficiently
that we expanded the winter storm watch too include all counties
in western and north central Nebraska.

The rapidly deepening low will also promote areas of blowing snow
Sunday afternoon through Monday as north wind gusts in excess of
30 mph develop, and even increase slightly to 35 mph Sunday night.
The blowing snow and the potential impacts will be considered in
any upgrade to an advisory or warning.

Snow totals, continued to follow the overall blended model
guidance. This suggests a general 5-7" of snow accumulations
across the CWA. Higher amounts from 6 to 9 inches are possible
east of Arnold through Ainsworth. These forecast values will
change.

The system will pull east of the CWA by Monday afternoon, with
mainly dry conditions forecast.  We did trend  temperatures for next
week downward from the guidance as we expect widespread snow
cover, and highs no warmer than the mid to upper 30s, then colder
by Friday in the upper 20s to low 30s and a chance for snow as the
next potential system arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Abundant high clouds will continue across western and north
central Nebraska overnight with some limited clearing on Saturday.
Winds will be light from the north at under 10 KTS over the next
24 hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NEZ024-036-058-069.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
for NEZ006>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening
for NEZ004-005-022-023-035-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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