Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 071740
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW. CUTOFF LOW OVER ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH WINDS. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER GFS SOLUTION. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG 250MB JET 130+ AND 850MB WINDS
50KTS TO 60KTS OVER HEAD ALL DAY. LAPSE RATES INDICATING WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN WITH STRONG CAA AND FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH AND INCLUDED ALL OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH COUNTY AREAS PRONE TO BLOW. STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT ALL DAY. WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 35F. HAVE INCLUDED A SCHC RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 00Z AND
RAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAINLY HOLT BOYD AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH A
DUSTING. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD BE CONCERNS WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND DOR CAMERAS TODAY TO SEE THE EFFECT OF THE WINDS.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND. WINDS WILL STAY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE CUT THE WARNING BACK
TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST AND 20S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS AROUND 40 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE TO 50 KTS NORTH CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS SUNDAY WITH SFC TO 850 HPA
AROUND 6C/KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
MIXING. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AS A 250HPA JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. INTRODUCED -RASN TUE AFTERNOON AND -SN TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENSIS AND A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WELL...WITH THE BEST WINDOW GENERALLY
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. SATURATION AND OMEGA LIE WELL BELOW THE DGZ SO
ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...NEAR CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SLR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A
DUSTING AT MOST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA IS PLACED IN
AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAA
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHEREAS THE MEX GUIDANCE DELAYS IT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES USE A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON SNOW PACK EFFECT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
MILDEST DAYS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. THE ECM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 55KTS OR
GREATER FOR KVTN...KANW...AND KONL THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER...BUT
STILL IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH HOW THE WIND WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE 0C TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED
A NICE CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK...BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. IF
THIS OCCURS...SHORT FUSED UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED -RASN SHOWERS MAY SPREAD SW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BRIEFLY. KONL WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS



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