Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1111 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Surface high pressure will settle south and be centered right
across the area this evening. Temperatures will quickly fall
this evening as winds go calm and skies clear. As the surface high
moves off to the east after midnight, winds will shift to the
south and temperatures will actually begin to rise. Westerly
downslope winds take over Wednesday, with a rapid rise in
temperatures during the morning, and highs topping out in the
upper 50s and 60s by afternoon. Some high clouds will be around
Wednesday, but doesn`t appear to be thick enough to have much
impact on high temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Well above-normal temperatures will prevail Thanksgiving Day and
Friday area-wide. Highs are then expected to remain above
seasonable normal values through the remainder of long term
period. Otherwise, scant chances for precipitation exist through
Tuesday. Gusty winds are anticipated Friday, strongest across
north central NEB. Of which, peak gusts up to 35-40 MPH are
possible across parts of north central NEB. Lastly, another cold
frontal passage is expected late in the period prompting a cool
down Tuesday.

Large scale pattern early Wednesday night features an upper-level
high centered over the Pacific offshore waters of southern CA and
Baja California with a ridge extending across British Columbia-
Alberta. Elsewhere, northwest flow prevails overhead and a broad
upper-level trough will be located over the eastern CONUS. The
ridge will dominate upstream then brake down some beginning early
Thursday as a shortwave trough tracks eastward over the top. The
shortwave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest late
Thursday through the Northern Plains by Friday. The pattern will
be conducive for dry conditions and above-normal temperatures
Thursday and Friday. Westerly downsloping winds will persist
Thursday with increasing temperatures aloft at low-levels. 850
hPa temperatures are forecast to range from 12-16 C Thursday. For
context, SPC Sounding climo at LBF shows the median temperature at
850 hPa for this time of year at around 4 C with a 90% moving
average about 12 C. Current thinking is Thanksgiving Day will be
the warmest day for much of the area with highs forecast in the
mid 60s to near 70 F. A cold front is then expected to advance
across the area later on Friday. Wherein some areas will see
cooler highs than Thursday, albeit highs will remain above-normal.
Friday`s highs are expected to range from the mid 50s in the
northeast Panhandle to upper 60s towards south central NEB. The
upper-level ridge is then expected to see amplification over the
Western CONUS Friday. Conditions Friday are expected to be gusty,
especially across north central NEB with decent momentum transfer
anticipated. Mean mixed layer winds show potential for gusts to
30-35 kts.

Beyond Friday, the upper-level ridge upstream in the western CONUS
will continue to affect the pattern through the weekend. While a
modest drop in highs are expected Saturday attributable to the
aforementioned cold frontal passage, highs will remain above
seasonable normal values. Thereafter, another upper-level system
will prompt cooler highs Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions will occur the next 24 hours across western
Nebraska. Broken high cloudiness overnight into Wednesday
afternoon. Winds will be light at 5 kts or less overnight, then
westerly up to 12 kts Wednesday afternoon.




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