Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Models lightly underdone on cold air lingering over western Nebraska
today with cloud cover. Have retained slight chance rainshowers
through the late morning and held onto cloud cover. Time heights
indicating cloud cover over KLBF at least through 20z. This will
hold temperatures back by several degrees. 1033mb surface high will
push in from the west today. Mav guidance had 49f at KONL but hedged
up a couple of degrees with highs in the low to upper 50s over all
of western Nebraska. Northerly winds less than 10kts today becoming
light and variable late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Thursday night through Saturday night...1031 mb Pacific high
pressure will be building into Iowa and KS this evening will low
pressure forming across Alberta. A sfc pressure trof will extend
south through Western Nebraska. The models show south winds
developing this evening. This supports lows in the 30s but no colder
as the south winds should disrupt radiational cooling processes.

Low pressure move east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba Friday. A
broad sfc trof sets up across Nebraska. The model guidance plus bias
correction indicates highs in the 70s. The model consensus shows
h850mb temperatures rising into the teens celsius.

A hotter surge of air arrives Saturday as h850mb temperatures rise
to around 20C. Low pressure should be over Southwest SD and this
supports the warmest temperatures across the Panhandle where highs
around 80 are expected. Some of the guidance like the MET is warmer
and the south-southwest winds could support near 80 for highs across
the Sandhills. The ECM shoves the dryline through the Sandhills
which is also a warmer and faster solution.

A weak cold front drops through Nebraska Saturday night. The Pacific
high pressure is modest and cools highs into the upper 60s to lower
70s Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday...rain chances may increase Tuesday.
Gulf moisture invades Nebraska with dew points rising into the 50s
across Ncntl Neb. The ECM and GFS are close with this but a state
away on rainfall. The ECM places rainfall across the midwest while
the GFS is over SD and the eastern half of Nebraska. This could be
related to the position of moisture return and best dynamic forcing
which is farther north in the ECM. Confidence is this portion of the
forecast is low because the GEF model is closer to the ECM than the

POPs are 40 percent for this forecast and the GFS/ECM solns suggest
lapse rates may be steep enough for thunderstorms.

The rest of the forecast is fairly straight forward. A mostly zonal
upper level pattern continues Monday through Wednesday with upper
level disturbances over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast U.S..
Temperatures rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The GFS continues
to advertise stratus or fog Tuesday morning while the ECM is farther
east. The ECM shows some potential for stratus Monday morning while
the GFS does not.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A disturbance will exit most of western Nebraska overngiht and
will aid in shower development. For the KVTN terminal, -shra
ovc040 is forecast until 10z with developemnt of mvfr ceilings
near ovc015. From 10z-14Z, mvfr ceilings as low as ovc015 are
forecast. At KLBF, vfr connditions are forecast. After 12z,
clearing skies will occur through the morning, with mainly sunny
skies in the afternoon. Light winds below 10 kts throughout the
taf period.




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