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000
FXUS63 KLBF 241634
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE BULGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65 TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES
NEARING 3500 J/KG...AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN
THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION MUST BE
OVERCOME FIRST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH EXTENDED
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES IN CANADA. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE OVER BOTH
COASTS...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE PROGRESSING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPARKED
CONVECTION FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT IS SUGGESTION OF A
SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THE CURRENT TIME. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /15-19C ACCORDING TO 24.00Z RAOBS/ WERE SEEN
UNDER THE RIDGE. UNDER THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW...THIS CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY WITH 700MB READINGS BELOW 0C. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE SEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

WILL BE WATCHING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED INTO THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT A HIGHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS EAST OF
A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL...WHICH IS WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY 18Z. STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AND CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SO CAN/T RULE OUT A PULSEY STRONG STORM...BUT
DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE ACTIVITY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE 24.00Z SOUNDING FROM KLBF HAD A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF
13C...WITH THE MODELS INCREASING THAT TO 17C BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS RISING ABOVE 100F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM IS SIMILAR WHILE THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WON/T GO THAT WARM WITH
HIGHS TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY GET
TO 100-102 BUT THE MODEL OUTPUTS OF 105-107 DEGREE READINGS DON/T
LOOK LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...EVEN WITH THE
INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT SO DON/T ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEGINNING IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND PEAK
HEATING...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AFTER 06Z AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE DOWN CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB...WITH UNCERTAIN FOR SW NEB. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A BRIEF SPIKE
IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE IN THE MID 90S...WHICH IS BELOW THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM.

FRIDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL RETAIN HIGHER POPS
THERE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS MILD...IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST.

SATURDAY SOME LINGER SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL IN THE
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST. A CANADIAN
SFC HIGH WILL DIP ACROSS THE PLAINS CREATING COOL TEMPS OVERHEAD
AND TO THE EAST...WITH WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE MARGINAL INITIALLY. WILL GO DRY UNTIL HIGH SLIDES TO THE
SE AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...SPREADING NE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AT 20
TO 25KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE SO NO MENTION HAS
BEEN ADDED TO EITHER KLBF OR KVTN TERMINAL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY 25.12Z.
UNLESS A STORM PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS