Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231739 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1239 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Frontal boundary continues to push across the central part of
Nebraska this morning, and will exit the CWA over the next couple of
hours. However, several areas of sct showers post front. Winds have
generally become light behind the front, although along the front
winds were gusty.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Frontal boundary will be east of the CWA shortly, however still
seeing some post frontal precip lifting to the NE across southwest
into central/n central Nebraska. Also seeing a few returns on radar
across northwest Nebraska, however they are weakening. Should
continue to see the showers across the eastern zones this morning
with only a portion of n central to see precip into the mid morning
hours. Winds have diminish to less than 10 mph for the most part and
starting to see some clearing to the west. The sun should shine this
afternoon and even though a slightly cooler air mass overhead, highs
still rebound nicely, into the mid and upper 70s.

The southern portion of the boundary that pushed across the area
earlier will stall over KS then drift back to the north this
evening. This will provide a focus in conjunction with another mid
level wave to provide another round of storms across southwest
Nebraska. A little uncertain on how far north the boundary will push
as the convection over the past several hours has resulted in
numerous outflow boundaries to content with. At this time the model
consensus is for the boundary to make it into SW Neb with storms not
pushing much further north than the interstate. Marginal cape/shear
will be favorable for a few strong storms with large hail/winds the
main threat and agree with the initial SPC slight risk.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday through the remainder of the week looks to be quite
active as multiple low pressure systems track across the central
Plains. At this time the most active weather is anticipated on
Tuesday night as a shortwave trough moves across central Nebraska. A
significant moist and unstable boundary layer throughout the day
will increase the chance of strong storms across much of central
Nebraska. Storms could become severe and the most recent SPC
convective outlook has put the southern CWA (mainly south of I-80)
in an enhanced outlook with areas north of I-80 in slight and
marginal. Thunderstorm and rain chances continue on Wednesday
through the end of the week, however, severe chances are low at
this time with these storms.

High temperatures will start off Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper
70s and slowly drop into the low to mid 70s by Friday before
rebounding back into the upper 70s by the weekend. Low temperatures
remain fairly steady in the low to mid 50s through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Clearing is taking place across most of the forecast area in the
wake of a few morning showers with mostly clear skies expected to
stick around for much of the day. However, The southern portion of
the frontal boundary that pushed across the area yesterday will
eventually lift back to the north in the evening with a chance for
thunderstorms along the boundary. The development of these showers
and storms into southwest Nebraska should be late in the evening
and will be broad brushed for the KLBF terminal after 05z Tuesday
with a VCTS...which is a couple of hours later than the 12z TAF
brought them in. However, development is still expected around 00z
and it should begin well to the south and west of KLBF and will
eventually work toward the terminal. KLBF may end up on the
northern fringe of the activity through 13z with thunderstorms
redevloping tomorrow, mainly after 00z. Storms tomorrow will be
more numerous and some could be severe.


Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Little change continues along the North Platte River as releases
hold steady and the heavy rain fell north of the basin. Could see a
little more rise, 0.1 feet at North Platte, otherwise minor to
moderate flooding continues both upstream and downstream of lake
McConaughy. A minor wave is causing the South Platte River gages to
see a little additional rises over the next few days, however all
sites remain below flood stage on the South Platte River. Portions
of the Platte River on the other hand will see minor flood stage the
next couple of days. The Platte River gage at Brady will reach minor
flood stage of 7.5 feet today and see minor fluctuations over the
next few days.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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