Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

At 08z...Scattered to broken high cloudiness extended across Montana
across the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Only few
to scattered high cloudiness across western Nebraska. Depending on
the amount of wind, temperatures are contrasting from 53 at Thedford
to 39 at North Platte.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Today...An anomalously strong upper ridge axis will extend north
from the Southern High Plains into the Central and Northern High
Plains. Temperatures at 850 mb to range from 18c at O`Neill to 20c
at Imperial which is from 10c to 13c above normal. With mainly sunny
skies and southwest winds increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon,
highs in the lower 80s areas west of Ainsworth through Burwell.
Portions of southwestern will even reach near 85. With drier air
working into western Nebraska, minimum relative humidities will fall
below 20 percent across much of fire zones 204, 206, and 210. For
fire zones 208, 209, and 219, 20-25 percent minimum relative
humidities will be common this afternoon. With southwest winds only
increasing to 10 to 15 mph at times this afternoon, fire weather
concerns will be elevated, but not expected to be near critical.

Tonight...Skies to remain mostly clear with a weak surface trough of
low pressure extending from the Northern Plains into the Central
High Plains. Lows tonight will be mild for this time of year from
near 45 eastern panhandle into the southwest to the lower 50s
central and northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Very few changes were made in the going forecast for Friday through
next week. An upper level ridge will continue to keep the central
Plains dry through Saturday. The ridge begins to slide eastward over
the Great Plains on Friday. However, warmer air will continue to
filter into the region with surface high temperatures reaching into
the 80s by afternoon. Temperatures will range from the low 80s
across the South Dakota/Nebraska border and the mid 80s across south
central Nebraska. Minimum temperatures for Thursday night and Friday
will remain in the mid to upper 40s.

A weak shortwave trough moves across the upper Plains on Saturday
which could bring some precipitation chances to locations across the
northern forecast area. Models are continuing to keep the majority
of the precipitation north of the Nebraska/South Dakota border,
however, a few lingering showers could make it into northern
Nebraska. Will keep precip chances low (less than 20 percent) as
confidence is still low with this system. Any slight changes to the
track or strength of this trough over the next couple days will
potentially change precipitation chances significantly. Much cooler
temperatures are in store for Saturday behind the cold front
passage. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s across the
northern forecast area to the low 70s across the southern forecast
area. These highs are highly dependent on the developing trough and
how far south it will dig into Nebraska. Again, a stronger trough
will allow the colder air to move further south, resulting in cooler
temperatures further south. The exact opposite will be true if the
trough weakens. Low temperatures will also see a drop from previous
Friday night with overnight temperatures dropping into the low 40s
on Saturday night.

The upper level ridge builds back across the Rocky Mountain region
allowing dry conditions to return to central Nebraska for Sunday and
Monday. High temperatures on Sunday rebound into the low to mid 70s
and mid to upper 70s for Monday. A stronger trough will then move
across the northern Plains Monday night. Precipitation is expected
to remain north of our CWA, however, we will feel the results as the
surface cold front passes over the region. High temperatures the
remainder of the week only rise into the low to mid 60s. A more well
developed system next Thursday will bring the next chance of
precipitation across the area. Still some uncertainty in the
forecast as it is a week out, but confidence in the system
development is high enough to put at least chance pops in the
forecast already. Will continue to monitor this system as the week


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR ceilings and visibility is forecast for the entire 18z
forecast period with large scale subsidence in control of the
region. The latest model data indicates wind shear potential
overnight at both KVTN and KLBF as winds aloft increase and begin
to veer to the west and eventually Northwest on Friday. Short
term model confidence in the directional change is not sufficient
enough to include WS in the official 18z forecast...thus will
continue to monitor and update if needed.


Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Highs flows to continue along the North Platte River downstream of
Lake McConaughy. Releases downstream are giving flows near 1800 cfs.
The current stage at North Platte was 6.0 feet. These controlled
releases will cause the river stage to remain near 6.0 feet for the
foreseeable future. Therefore, a Flood Advisory will remain in
effect for the North Platte River near North Platte from Highway 83
to approximately 4 miles west of Highway 83 south of North River




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