Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 271936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
136 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

SFC low pressure across the Nrn Plains will move south today and
then east through KS/NEB tonight. This will draw moisture north
today and pull a cold front through tonight. The fog potential is
low ahead of the front owning to the NAM is the only model showing
it and it is out of reach of the HRRR and RAP models. The HRRR
experimental shows the fog across eastern Neb.

The temperature forecast today follows blended RAP and HRRR
experimental output plus bias correction for highs in the 40s to
near 50 south...30s north across the snow field. H850mb temperatures
rise to around 5C today but south winds will limit mixing to around
850mb. Lows tonight fall into the teens and 20s with the approaching
cold front.

Isolated rain and snow chances are in place across Sheridan County
and around ONeill. The disturbance across Srn ID/Nrn UT this morning
will move through tonight and operate on limited moisture and focus.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Main focus this forecast period is the chance for fog Tuesday
morning and temperatures for the weekend. For Tuesday have kept fog
chances in the forecast through mid morning Tuesday as advection fog
may be possible for areas in our far eastern forecast area...have
kept it patchy as uncertainty still remains if fog will develop.

Tuesday night into Wednesday a trough will pass across the area
changing the pattern into a northwest flow through the end of the
week before turning into a zonal flow for the weekend.

Temperatures will remain cool with highs around 5 to 10 degrees
below normal through Thursday with temperatures returning to near
normal on Friday.

The weekend will be warmer with highs in the 50s and 60s. Raised
temperatures a couple degrees across the northern Sandhills Saturday
and Sunday as models were too cool and were accounting for snow pack
in the area. However...we have been melting about 2 inches of snow
depth a day even with temperatures in the 30s as the sun angle is
high enough this late in the season to have adequate
melting...thus snow pack should be gone by the weekend and
temperatures should not be affected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

VFR condtions should persist overnight at the KLBF and KVTN
terminals. There will be areas of fog developing late this evening
and overnight at the KBBW and KONL terminals, which should lift by
15z Tuesday. Lowering ceilings at KLBF Tuesday morning could fall
into MVFR by around 15z, toward the end of the TAF period.




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