Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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196
FXUS63 KLBF 220934
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
334 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The winter storm (blizzard in some areas) got off to a slow start
across Custer and Frontier counties, perhaps Holt and Wheeler
counties also. The forecast uses a blend of the HRRR and RAP models
for snowfall and temperatures. This places a stripe of 12-14 inches
of highest-total snowfall from Broken Bow to North Platte, Imperial
and Hayes Center where radar indicates very heavy snow has occurred
and will continue until early this morning.

The aforementioned models have been performing very well with this
event and indicate a west to east improvement with snow ending in
most areas this morning. Satellite shows a very impressive
deformation band has set up across Wrn Neb which has moved very
little since 6 pm CST Sunday. This area of deformation is forecast
to decay coincident with the development of a new snow band across
cntl and ern Neb around 12z.

The strong winds should continue until about 15z across wrn Neb and
then decrease but remain strong throughout the day across ncntl and
swrn Neb. Gusts to 40-50 mph will be common this morning where the
snow is underway. Thus the current winter weather highlights can be
trimmed back at 12Z as forecast.

The temperature forecast today uses a blend of the HRRR and RAP
models plus bias correction for highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
A blend of bias corrected guidance was the basis for lows tonight in
the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The weather pattern turns quiet after Sunday and Monday`s blizzard
across western Nebraska. An H5 ridge builds back in over the
Intermountain West, pushing the upper low into the eastern Great
Lakes by Tuesday morning. The ridge axis bisects the forecast area
early Thursday, transitioning the flow to southwest for the end of
the week. A closed low in the Canadian Prairies drags a shortwave
across the Plains soon after. At the surface, a high pressure over
the Southeast U.S. keeps the next system at bay until the shortwave
helps push a cold front through.

Temperatures... The upper ridge, downslope flow at H85, and mainly
sunny skies will allow for a moderating trend midweek. However, kept
highs below guidance to account for a deep fresh snow pack. Forecast
calls for mid/upper 30s Tue, near 40 Wed, and mid/upper 40s Thu (H85
temps push 10C along a thermal ridge). Trended Tue night lows down a
degree or two also for the combination of light winds, clear sky,
and the snowpack. Highs fall back below climo averages Friday and
Saturday with the fropa, but only looks to be a glancing blow with
H85 temps around -3C.

Precipitation... Chances are scant over the next several days,
despite the forcing associated with the shortwave/cold frontal
passage late week. Overall moisture seems to be lacking except a
brief window on Friday. Left PoPs out of the forecast due to low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

For the KLBF terminal: Expect IFR and LIFR conds through 12z
Monday with snow and blowing snow. Visibilities may fall to a half
a mile at times through 12z. Conditions will improve Monday
morning with MVFR conds through mid morning, then clearing skies
by midday Monday. Northwesterly winds will remain gusty on Monday
with speeds 20 to 30 KTS. Look for winds to diminish to under 10
KTS Monday evening. For the KVTN terminal: Expect IFR conds
through 10z Monday with light snow and visibilities of 1sm
expected. MVFR conds are expected after 10z with VFR conds
expected after mid morning Monday. Expect gusty northwesterly
winds of 20 to 30 KTS through midday with diminishing winds Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NEZ009-010-
026>029-037-038-058-059-069>071.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for NEZ006>008-025.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this
morning for NEZ004-005-022>024-035-036-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Buttler



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