Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 041118
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INBETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORNING FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT
COULD DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...HOWEVER WITH MOST
SITES HAVING A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES T/TD SPREAD...FOG LOOKS
UNLIKELY.

RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP.
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS
C...WITH GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S. A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE HIGHS AROUND
70.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT...WELL AT LEAST SEEMS
MILD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED...THIS IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTWERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MID 80S AT MOST
LOCALS FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A
LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS THE LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING NORTHWARD...H850MB
DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 4C TO 6C RANGE...AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE POPS DUE TO THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED BY THIS TIME...WITH SOME POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. H850MB DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE 10C TO
12C NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP ACR0SS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS...AND
AGREE WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS/GEFS IS SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
ACROSS KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER
TSTMS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH JUST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS OUR IMMEDIATE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK...AND INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN OUR AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME NORTHERLY NEAR 10
KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL
NEAR OR AT BANK FULL. THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS
CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY
AS A RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY
SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK



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