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000
FXUS63 KLBF 302041
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
341 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

H5 hand analysis this morning continued to show an
amplified pattern across the CONUS and western Canada. Closed low
pressure was located over the Ohio valley-straddling the
Indiana/Kentucky border. This feature has remained stationary over
the past 24 hours. A trough of low pressure extended south of the
low into northern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. West of the low, a
low amplitude ridge was present from Texas, north to Nebraska.
Southwesterly flow aloft extended west of the ridge to the
California coast. Within this southwest flow, shortwaves were noted
over southwest Colorado and over western Wyoming. Further west, a
deepening trough of low pressure extended from southwest portions of
the Northwest Territories of Canada, to off the coast of northern
California. The west coast trough is showing signs of tracking east
toward the Oregon and Washington coasts this morning. Closer to the
central plains, abundant mid and high level cloudiness in
association with the Colorado shortwave, has pushed into western
Nebraska overnight into this morning. These clouds continue to
thicken and skies were partly cloudy in the eastern forecast area,
while the west was mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions. Temperatures
as of 3 PM CDT ranged from 67 at Broken Bow to 73 at Valentine.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Upper level trough across the Pacific NW with southwest flow across
the area resulting in some tropical moisture getting drawn to the
high plains. Meanwhile a weak disturbance resulting in a few stray
light rain showers/sprinkles across the western panhandle this
afternoon which could drift into the eastern panhandle early this
evening. Window is short and expect sunset to cause any lingering
activity to diminish.

Overnight temps should be a little warmer than the past couple of
nights thanks to the blanket of high clouds. Should see lows in the
mid to upper 40s and would not be surprised to see a few sites not
fall below 50. Dry lower levels should keep the forecast area dry
overnight.

Tomorrow the next disturbance will push across the Rockies. Dry
conditions ahead of the trough along with weak ridging to push temps
above seasonal averages, albeit only a category or two due to
southwest flow aloft and continued upper level clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Saturday night through Monday...In the mid range,
temperatures will be the main forecast concern followed by
precipitation chances in the northwest Monday and winds on Monday.
For Saturday night: A surface trough of low pressure will continue
to reside along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming. With a
tight pressure gradient across the forecast area and dew points in
the mid to upper 40s, fairly mild temperatures are expected for
Saturday night. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s in the
valleys to the lower 50s elsewhere. The surface trough of low
pressure will remain in place Sunday into Monday off to the west
of the forecast area. Temperatures will surge into the upper 70s
and lower 80s east of the trough Sunday and Monday and windy
conditions are expected Sunday and very windy conditions on
Monday. Looking at the NAM12 soln...we will be well mixed both
days, however H85 winds will eclipse 40 KTS on Monday afternoon
with 30 to 40 KTS on Sunday afternoon. Dew points will increase
slightly into the lower 50s in the west and mid 50s in the east so
lows Sunday night will be very mild in the lower to middle 50s.
The ridge aloft will begin to lift east late Sunday night into
Monday as low pressure deepens across the intermountain west. A
lead shortwave will lift across eastern Wyoming into the western
panhandle late Sunday night into Monday. For now, have confined
pops to the far northwestern forecast area as the cap will remain
strong in the sandhills...portions of north central and southwest
Nebraska.

Monday night through Friday...The forecast focus in the extended
periods shifts to a closed low which is progged to track across the
intermountain west onto the central and northern plains early next
week. For Monday night into Tuesday: The latest model runs, along
with the GFS ensemble mean, have trended more northwest with the
track of the H5 low early next week. This feature now lifts through
Wyoming into the western Dakotas, and even the ECMWF from 12z this
morning lifts this feature from nw Wyoming into Montana. That being
said, precipitation chances were trimmed back across the board
Monday night into Wednesday. ATTM, the best chances for measurable
pcpn appear to be late Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the appg
pacific cold front. Moisture out ahead of this feature will lift
into central and eastern Nebraska Monday night, however, dew points
will struggle to reach the 30s and 40s from the panhandle into the
highway 83 corridor. The upper level low will track into the Dakotas
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drier air will filter into the
forecast area Tuesday Night, and this will carry over into the
middle and end of next week. Highs will be mainly in the 60s
Wednesday and Thursday with lower 70s for Friday. Lows will be in
the lower 40s Wednesday...followed by the 30s for Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Little change over the nest 24 hours as VFR conditions continue.
Some high clouds are expected to persist however no ceilings
below BKN150 expected. Winds generally out of the southeast to
south today into tomorrow with gusts at times of 20 to 25 kts.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Masek