822
FXUS63 KLBF 130528
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
  across north central Nebraska ahead of a weak frontal boundary
  Sunday afternoon.

- A cold front approaches the area Tuesday, bringing a return
  of thunderstorms and much below average temperatures (highs in
  70s to low 80s) into midweek.

- Active weather continues into late week and next weekend, with
  continued threats for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Currently, temperatures have climbed into the 70s across the area,
with surface high pressure centered over western Nebraska. The
surface high is also leading to light and variable winds, under
mostly sunny skies.

For tonight and tomorrow, expect winds to strengthen from the south,
as surface high pressure begins to exit off to the east. This
increasing warm advection will lead to a quick warmup for tomorrow,
with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Dewpoints will
also climb back into the lower and middle 60s, allowing for a narrow
corridor of increasing instability ahead of a weak cold front
sliding into the Sandhills during the afternoon. Recent high-res
guidance has begun to suggest isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development ahead of this boundary, across portions of
central and north central Nebraska. This seems plausible, given the
increasing instability and convergence along/ahead of the front.
With this in mind, have introduced slight chance (15-20%) POPs for
portions of central and north central Nebraska tomorrow afternoon.
Meager deep layer shear should hold back any storms that do form,
but this will need to be monitored. Any storms that form quickly
wane tomorrow evening, with dry conditions expected tomorrow
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A brief reprieve from precipitation is expected through the
afternoon Monday, before a shortwave trough begins to eject into the
Plains Monday evening. This will lead to increasing convection
across the high terrain of Wyoming, which will move east into the
Panhandle late evening. At least some threat exists for this
convection to survive into the eastern Panhandle/western Sandhills,
though any storms should be quickly weakening as they approach.

By Tuesday afternoon, an upper level trough will begin to eject
southeast out of the Pacific Northwest, slowly ejecting into the
Northern Plains by Thursday. This approaching trough will bring a
return of active weather, with an associated surface cold front
entering the area Tuesday evening. Ahead of this front, ample
instability and at least marginally supportive deep layer shear
suggests some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Frontal
position will drive the location of any severe threat Tuesday, and
will need to be monitored closely. The front then clears the area
Tuesday night, with the area in a cooler, but upslope, postfrontal
airmass. This suggests a threat for showers and thunderstorms will
persist Wednesday into Thursday, before the parent upper trough
finally begins to exit off to the east Thursday afternoon. Any break
in precipitation looks to be short lived, as guidance continues to
suggest an active pattern persisting into late week and next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday evening. Skies
remain clear or mostly clear with ceilings well above 10 kft.
Winds will generally remain under 10 knots, however, they are
expected to change from the south to the northwest by tomorrow
afternoon before changing back to east northeast during the
evening.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik