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000
FXUS63 KLBF 220853
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED DOWN THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE US. A STRONG CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN PANHANDLE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CLOSER TO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED WITH A STRONG
WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER THE
NEBR PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...AS OF 3 AM CDT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF ARTHUR TO TAYLOR PER RADAR
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FIRED NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS. COVERAGE WAS
GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SHERIDAN...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CHERRY COUNTY AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY THE
THREAT FOR PCPN LATER TODAY. FOR TODAY...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL SAG SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING STALLING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S LOOK ON TRACK FOR
NORTH PLATTE...WITH UPPER 80S FORECAST FURTHER NORTH IN THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN A COUPLE OF AREAS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. FIRST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND
SECOND...ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST INVOF THE SRN BLACK HILLS AND
PINE RIDGE. WITH RESPECT TO THE PINE RIDGE REGION...INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE WITH SURFACE HEATING WITH SB CAPES REACHING NEAR
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN BLACK HILLS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. CAP
STRENGTH IS A CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEBR PANHANDLE...SO ANY STORMS WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE NWRN CWA...WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. DECIDED TO INSERT SOME ISOLD POPS IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK SHEAR ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WILL APPROACH 35 TO 50 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...SO THERE WILL BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. FOR TONIGHT...IN LIGHT OF THE NAM SOLN INDICATING
CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...AM
HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ANY EVENING CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN
ITSELF. ESPECIALLY WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS BEING WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING FOR EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST WIND
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL INDICATED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPGLIDE AND LOWER
SATURATION PRESSURE GRADIENTS TARGET OUR WESTERN THEN NORTH
CENTRAL ZONE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE REGION /SAVE OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES/ BY 12Z. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG A LEE SFC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND EC. WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL WARM NEARLY TEN DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR
MOST PLACES...WITH UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND....THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TRANSITION
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE PLAINS AS A PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  THE RIDGE
WILL RE-ENERGIZE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE THE SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.   A COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED
THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER COLD FRONT
DUE EARLY ON SUNDAY.  HIGHS WILL TRANSITION FROM SEASONAL ON
FRIDAY...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AS A WEAK COOL
FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH
BASED AOA 12KFT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND MAY BE QUITE STRONG IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. STORMS SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
KLBF TAF SITE AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF BUT KVTN IS ANOTHER STORY.
DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE WEST ALONG THE BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE EAT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY. CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AND NOT AS HOT WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER