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000
FXUS63 KLBF 092317 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN ALASKA. FURTHER
EAST...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO
THE DAKOTAS...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES. SEVERAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN H5 FLOW. A QUICK
GLANCE AT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS PER WV IMAGERY...INDICATES SHORTWAVES
OVER SRN UTAH....OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MT. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA....WE ARE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH HAS LED TO CLEARING
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START
THIS MORNING...FULL SUN AND WESTERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S
OVER THE LIMITED SNOW COVER AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

THIS EVENING WILL SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NW AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST
ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND ONLY THINK IMPACT TO NEB WILL
BE THE CLOUDS. BY MORNING THE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE
DECREASE. LOWS TRICKY TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE OVERNIGHT AS
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND DOWNSLOPING W/NW PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO WILL SEE THE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
PART OF THE NIGHT. THEN THERE IS THE LINGERING SNOW PACK. HAVE GONE
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE WHERE DEEP SNOW PACK EXISTS...EVEN
THOUGH THIS IS WERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST AND LINGER THE
LONGEST. IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CLOUDS CLEAR EARLIER
IN THE MORNING...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A CATEGORY OR TWO. AS
IT STANDS NOW...COLDEST LOWS STAY ABOVE ZERO AND WIND CHILLS STAY
ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS NO HEADLINE.

TOMORROW ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAYTIME. 850 MB TEMPS
ON THE INCREASE...HOWEVER LESS WIND /COMPARED TO TODAY/ AND ONLY
INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
STILL HAVE SOME COOLER TEMPS OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK TO THE NORTH
AND FAR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF SW NEBRASKA SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE FIRST ARCTIC AIR BLAST A WEEK
AGO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A
CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SERN IOWA
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
WERE SCALED BACK SOME BASED ON THE FOLLOWING...CROSS SECTIONS
THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA ARE INDICATIVE OF DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE
SURFACE TO H5 TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...OMEGA IN THIS LAYER IS
VERY WEAK TUESDAY EVENING. ALSO ISENTROPIC SURFACES ARE INDICATING A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF UPGLIDE...FOLLOWED BY STEEP DOWNGLIDE.
FINALLY...WHERE THERE IS SOME DECENT LIFT CO-LOCATED WITH
MOISTURE...IS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
TIMED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH FAVORS MENTION OF
FLURRIES. ON WEDNESDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA ON THE HEELS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. ANY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHICH DO DEVELOP WEDS AFTERNOON...WILL ONLY RECYCLE ARCTIC AIR TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. WITH H85 TEMPS RISING TO 4
TO 6C THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS WOULD NORMALLY REACH THE 40S WITH
DECENT MIXING. DECIDED TO TAPER THOSE TEMPS BACK SOME AS ONGOING
SNOWCOVER...WILL LIMIT MIXING SOME...AS WELL AS HIGHS THURSDAY.
THURSDAY HOWEVER WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN OVER A WEEK WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE EXTENDED...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON A YO-YO DURING THE
PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH. THE GFS USHERS IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS NOT DEPICTED IN THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGHS
WERE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THE MODELS TRENDING COLDER AND
BEING IN DECENT AGREEMENT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE NEWEST GFS
USHERS IN A SECOND ARCTIC BLAST ON SUNDAY. WITH A LARGE DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF SOLN...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WERE ONLY MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER WRN ND...WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
WINDS AT 850-700MB IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
BASIN AS THE LOW GOES BY. THUS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS THESE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC