Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 051734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED NWD
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO FAR NORTHERN CANADA. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED FROM EASTERN MONTANA...SWD INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...3 AM READINGS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S UNDERNEATH THE HIGH IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...WILL TRANSITION EAST. WARMER H85 AIR WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM 17C IN THE NE..TO 22C IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH PLATTE SETTLED AROUND
80 FOR A HIGH WITH THE MAV AND MET FCSTING 82 AND 80 RESPECTIVELY.
INHERITED FCST HAD 81 FOR A HIGH AND FELT IT RIGHT ON TRACK ATTM.
LATE IN THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE...WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
LEND A BOOST TO TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...BUT IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST AS A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH CA AND INTO AZ AND NV. A VERY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S.
DEEP MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT FORECASTED HIGHS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING...AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE NE/KS BORDER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY NOTED FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE H850MB FRONT AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

MODELS TONIGHT AGREE THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR TSTMS. APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CARRY TSTM ACTIVITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SHEAR QUICKLY DECREASES
NORTH INTO OUR AREA HOWEVER...SO ANY SEVERE /MOSTLY HAIL THREAT/
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. IT COMES ACROSS IN
PIECES. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE OR DECREASE
POPS WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE
RESIDES AS THE DISTURBANCES/PIECES MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
THAT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND STORMS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. ALL STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD...THUS VFR IS FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE...NORTH PLATTE...MAINSTREAM
PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT.
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAINSTEM PLATTE RIVER...RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY. ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT
LEWELLEN...THE RIVER LEVEL WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AT 7.5 TO
7.8 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS JUST ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE
OF 7.5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH
AT ATKINSON. THE STAGE THIS EVENING WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACTION
STAGE AND RIVER LEVELS CONTINUED TO FALL AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...BUTTLER



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