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000
FXUS63 KLBF 030533
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN HAD DECREASED TO 7.6 FEET
AT 8 PM MST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE JAM AT LEWELLEN HAD
BROKEN. ARCTIC AIR COMING INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ICE JAMS TO FORM
AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING IN FORCE UNTIL
THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE JAM IS BROKEN UP. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER