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000
FXUS63 KLBF 091728
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OCCURRING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGE FROM 55 AT VTN TO 60 AT OGA AND IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S THROUGH
TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 18C TO 26C...RESULTING IN HIGHS
FROM NEAR 82 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 SERN PNHDL AND FAR SOUTHWEST.
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ACROSS ERN WY INTO ERN CO TODAY. A WARM
FRONT ALOFT WILL RESIDE INTO WRN NEBR TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NEBR WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN
FAIRLY MODEST WITH 0-3KM MUCAPES FROM NEAR 2500 J/KG IN SWRN TIER OF
COUNTIES TO AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR
WILL MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY RANGING AS
HIGH AS 50-60 KTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS OVER MOST OF THE FA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THE MAIN THREAT. POPS TO INCREASE TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTN OVER MOST
OF FA.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OF
STORMS THIS EVENING NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THEN MOVE
SOUTH INTO KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL A RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS UNTIL MID EVENING. CLOUDINESS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DEAL WITH TIMING
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER IN
THE FORECAST FROM LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER MOVING ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. WATER VAPOR WAS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO UTAH AND
COLORADO INDICATING THE ONGOING MONSOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE
THIS LEAD TO FAIRLY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE
LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE
PATTERN SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL OPEN THE GULF UP ALLOWING MOISTURE
TO GET PUSHED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A RISING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THESE REASONS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE THAT IS
EXPECTED...JUST NEED SOME WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TO HELP STORMS DEVELOP ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN THESE
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. THERE ARE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT IT WILL BE RAINING OVER THESE LOCATIONS THE ENTIRE PERIOD. JUST
DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO FURTHER PINPOINT WHEN THE HIGHER
CHANCES WILL BE AT THIS TIME.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW WILL SETTLE OVER
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO BEFORE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO RETREAT BACK WEST AND WILL PUT
THE LOCAL AREA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE LOCALLY
UNTIL GETTING PUSHED OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WITH THE MOISTURE STICKING AROUND...AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING A MULTITUDE OF WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS. HOWEVER THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVES AS THE
MODELS ARE OFF BY ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM EACH OTHER ON MANY DAYS. WITH
THE LEVEL OF DIFFICULTY IN TIMING ANY SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA AND
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON MAKING MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE AREA THE
FORECAST HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL DICTATE THE TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE A FEW DAYS WHEN
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING RAIN AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ALL DAY WHICH WOULD
LIKELY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. BUT AGAIN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DIDN/T
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MODIFIED AS TIME GETS CLOSER.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL NOT ALLOW STRONG
RIDGING TO BUILD IN SO NO BIG WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE AREA
BEING IN A SLOW COOLING PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL PUSH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY IF THE TREND
REMAINS SIMILAR...COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S FORMING INVOF THE SANDHILLS REGION AND/OR SW
NEBRASKA AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR NEAR ANY STORM. OTHERWISE
WERE WATCHING STORMS THAT MAY IMPACT KVTN OR KANW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
HAIL...BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WIND. CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET THIS EVENING...BUT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AOA
10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS