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000
FXUS63 KLBF 161148
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
648 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM NRN MINNESOTA INTO
SWRN ONTARIO. COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA WITH A
PREVAILING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S. STRATUS ALSO ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG
WITH LIGHT FOG NEAR 5SM AT BOTH VTN AND ANW. SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

FOR TODAY...CURRENT STRATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TODAY KEPT
ABOVE CURRENT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE AND VERY NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN WARMING TO NEAR 57 WEST...LOW TO MID 50S
CENTRAL. THE MID 40S FAR EASTERN AREAS DUE TO LAST AREA TO CLEAR OUT
AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND BECOMING SOUTH. FOR ALL AREAS...THESE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
INTO WRN MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL CAUSE A LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS WILL
RANGE ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY IN THE LOW 30S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S IN
THE PLATTE AND LOUP RIVER VALLEYS. WHILE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK IS
POSSIBLE...FAVOR SCATTERED CIRRUS WITH THICKER CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECASTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 991MB ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH VERY
DRY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE WARM AIR /HIGHS IN THE
70S/ AND LOW HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL
EXPAND THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NOW BEING
FORECASTED.

ATTENTION TURNS FROM WARM AND DRY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...TO CHILLY
AND POTENTIAL WET/SNOWY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
GEM MODELS HAVE FOLLOWED THE FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...AND NOW
ALL DIG THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NEBRASKA TUESDAY. THE GFS IS THE
STRONGEST...AND REALLY WINDS THE SYSTEM UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKER...WE WON/T JUMP
ONTO THIS SOLUTION JUST YET...AND TAKE A CAUTIOUS APPROACH WITH
MODEL DIFFERENCES. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCREASE POPS SOME ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
ACCUMULATING ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...AND AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FARTHER SOUTH.

APPEARS THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE SYSTEM TO
CHANGE RAIN OVER TO WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WITH THE WARM GROUND AND ONLY MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES...WILL
NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF OTHER MODELS
TREND TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD MEAN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WIND.

A WINDY DAY IS FORECASTED TUESDAY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF A 988MB LOW
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARD
NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE A PROGRESSIVE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. ONE STRONGER WAVE IN THE
FLOW MAY BRING A SHOWER TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY...OTHERWISE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

NEAR TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS CURRENT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. EXPANSE
OF STRATUS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO
SCATTER OUT STRATUS. DID KEEP PREVAILING MVFR NEAR OVC014 AT KLBF
UNTIL 15Z...THEN SCT020. AT KVTN KEPT OVC009 UNTIL 15Z...THEN
BKN015 TIL 16Z...THEN SCT020. VARIABLE CEIILINGS AT KLBF SUGGEST
JUST ABOVE/BELOW OVC010 POSSIBLE UNTIL 15Z...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
TO BE VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG