Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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254
FXUS63 KLBF 110933
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.

FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.  THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE RAP MODEL HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
NEB THIS EVENING AND IT IS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THE MODEL
IS SIMILAR TO THE FASTER GFS AND SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FCST AREA
WOULD BE VFR BY 22Z THURSDAY.

LIFR IS POSSIBLE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG I-80 AND HIGHWAY 61. MVFR/IFR
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM 16Z-20Z.

MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC



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