Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 190930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated
area of low pressure which extended from northern New Mexico into
southern Nebraska. Further west, a broad trough of low pressure
extended from the Gulf of Alaska south into the eastern Pacific, off
the coast of northern California. North of the low across the
central CONUS, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure was present
across central Canada. At the surface: A weak surface trough of low
pressure extended from north central Nebraska into the southeastern
Nebraska panhandle. East of this feature, light southerly winds and
low level moisture advection had pushed into central and eastern
portions of the forecast area. West of this feature winds were
westerly and much drier boundary layer moisture was present.
Overnight, fog has pushed into portions of southwestern and central
nebraska and had become locally dense with a visibility of 1/4 of a
mile at North Platte. NDOR cams south of Arnold have indicated dense
fog as well. Temperatures as of 3 AM CST were mild for this time of
year and ranged from 21 at Ogallala to 36 at O`Neill.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Today and tonight: For this morning, based on the
latest WARW, SREF ensemble visibility probabilities and the latest
HRRR, will hoist a dense fog advisory for portions of southwestern
and central Nebraska this morning. Indications are that the fog will
begin to burn off by late morning. However, stratus will be an issue
in the east today given the favorable low level moisture advection.
That being said, decided to undercut guidance for highs this
afternoon in the eastern CWA. Further west, drier air and mainly
clear skies will allow temps to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s.
For tonight: The upper level low will lift into eastern Nebraska.
Underneath this feature, widespread stratus and fog will develop
once again from central into eastern Nebraska. A surface trough will
remain stationary from north central into southwestern Nebraska
overnight tonight and serve as the dividing line between fog/stratus
and clear skies. SREF probabilities for visbys under 1 mile are near
100 percent for tonight in the eastern CWA. With further support
from the WARW visby product an NAM12, went ahead and inserted areas
of fog into the forecast for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Friday starts off foggy with locally dense areas. Visibilities
across south central Nebraska could drop to under a mile during the
early morning hours. Fog lifts by mid morning, giving way to a
pleasant Friday. Even with cloudy skies across much of the forecast
area, high temperatures will still be able to rise into the low to
mid 40s.

Our next system will briefly impact north central Nebraska on Friday
night. Generally, precipitation will remain east of highway 83. The
low pressure system moving across central and eastern Nebraska will
be quick moving and precipitation is expected to remain mostly all
liquid. However, some snow is possible late Friday night as
temperatures drop below freezing. At this time, little to no
accumulation is expected. The system will be well northeast of the
region by Saturday, allowing a return to dry weather.

High pressure and dry weather sticks around for the remainder of the
weekend and into the first part of next week. The next major winter
system potential arrives on Monday night and lasts through Wednesday
morning. Specific details about snow amounts and onset of
snow/timing of heaviest snow is still being worked out. It is safe
to say right now, though, that this system has the potential to drop
several inches of snow from Monday night through Tuesday night. A
added concern with this storm is the potential for gusty winds late
Tuesday which could cause blowing and drifting snow making travel
difficult. Will continue to monitor the development of this storm
over the next couple days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Stratus and fog, becoming dense, will develop tonight and persist
Thursday morning across the southeastern half of the forecast
area. The area looks to be east of a line from North Platte
through Bassett. Have lowered the visibility to 1/2sm from 14z-
16z along with ovc003. Will need to monitor closely to adjust
timing and duration, with LBF potentially falling to LIFR or even
VLIRF conditions.


Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ037-038-059-070-



SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.