Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 102339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
539 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Main forecast challenge through the short term period will be a
strong cold frontal passage and chances for light snowfall late
tonight and Wednesday. The rest of the today period will be quiet.
Echoes noted on radar are likely not reaching the ground due to dry
air off the surface. Shallow Arctic air currently over the Northern
Plains will start a southward push toward to the forecast area
tonight as a strong shortwave trough moves along the Canadian
border. High temperatures for most of the area will be observed
early in the overnight hours before the front crosses into northern
Nebraska by daybreak and surges south to around the I-80 corridor by
late morning. The front will then likely stall out during the
afternoon hours across our southern counties. Falling temperatures
and northerly winds behind the front will make for a chilly day.

In addition to the cold air intrusion models also continue to
advertise light snowfall over the forecast area tonight and
Wednesday. Cross section Analise`s shows a deep layer of lift over
much of the forecast area, but westerly winds in the mid-levels will
limit snowfall coverage and amounts due to the presence of warmer,
dry air. The area most likely to see accumulations will be near the
SD border as a zone of stronger lift and deeper cold air will be
more favorable for snowfall production, but amounts should remain
near or below an inch through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

A northern stream trough aloft will push through the region
Wednesday night well behind the arctic front. Snow chances
highest near 30-50 percent Wednesday evening across portions of
the north central with additional snow amounts up to an inch near
and north of Highway 20. Also introduced a mention of flurries
across southwestern areas during the evening. Only a slight
chance for light snow/flurries across the east after midnight.

The arctic front will push up against the Colorado Front Range
Thursday as cold air persists across western Nebraska. Highs
mainly from the upper teens to lower 20s.

As upper flow becomes southwest Thursday night into Friday, a
disturbance will bring a slight chance for snow to the
southeastern zones. Little if any accumulation expected.

The airmass will modify by Friday as surface winds become light
southerly and highs mainly from the mid to upper 20s.

The next potential storm system will move from portions of the
Southwestern U.S. into the Southern Plains Saturday night. Medium
range models differ on the track and timing Sunday into Monday.
The European model is slowest and develops a well defined
deformation across Nebraska into Colorado and southeast Wyoming.
The main concern is that expected convection across the Plains
would typically disrupt moisture transport into the Central High
Plains. Therefore with this in mind, and the model differences
which exist, forecast pops are limited to 20-40 percent, with the
higher pops expected to occur across the southeastern zones.
Better model agreement the next few days would bring better
clarity to the track and timing of this system. While this system
remains a concern, the airmass is not very cold with daytime highs
in the 30s, and winds expected to be be fairly light.

Precipitation chances should come to an end later Monday as surface
high pressure attempts to build back into the region. Warmer air
will attempt to return by Tuesday with highs forecast into the
lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Altostratus and stratus continues to be stubborn to erode over
the KLBF and KVTN terminals. For this reason, introduced a tempo
group with the 00z TAF (from 00z to 03z) to account for the lower
(while still VFR) ceilings. VFR conditions will continue to
prevail over all of Western and North Central Nebraska for much of
the evening an early morning hours, before a strong cold front
pushes in from South Dakota.

The aforemention cold front is expected to arrive at the KVTN
terminal near 07z and KLBF terminal near 13z, with the arrival
being marked by a wind shift to the north. IFR conditions are
possible at the KVTN terminal as early as 11z, as ceilings lower
to around 1,500ft and visibilities fall to around 2 to 3 miles
due to falling snow. MVFR conditions are possible as early as 18z
at the KLBF terminal, however, lower CIGS are possible...but not
entirely clear/certain at this time. Due to this uncertainty, only
introduced/maintained MVFR conditions for the KLBF terminal for
this TAF period. Also of note, breezy northerly winds are
expected at both terminals during the morning hours, with winds
gusting as high as 20 to 25 knots.


Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The North Platte River above Lake Mcconaughy has seen elevated
river levels above action stage due to minor ice jamming the past
several days at Lewellen and Lisco. Warmer temperatures the past
few days has shown little improvement to the river levels. Cold
temperatures returning Wednesday through Friday are forecast,
which could increase ice jamming concerns. Will continue an RVS
for both sites until the ice issues are fully resolved.




LONG TERM...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Roberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.