Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 211725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds working
east into central NEB. While mostly high level clouds are present
across western NEB, mid level clouds with ceilings largely 8-10
kft are present across the NEB Panhandle. Latest radar display
shows isolated-scattered showers across the Panhandle and far
eastern WY with infrequent thunder noted over the central
Panhandle. Latest mesoanalysis shows a surface cold front located
roughly near Wray to Ogallala to near Valentine. The surface low
associated with the front was located over the border of southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba with a central pressure of about 986

Marginal instability in place and appears sufficient for very
infrequent thunder across the northeast Panhandle and far
northwest NEB early this morning. This is expected to be a
temporary condition, thereafter the overall threat for thunder is
low with no mention in the forecast after 12Z. Current thinking
is isolated-scattered showers will develop more so in the morning
hours across western NEB, near and after 12Z, with chances
spreading eastward in the morning. Moisture in the column becomes
more favorable early-mid morning with better moisture profiles
noted. The primary upper level PV anomaly is currently located
over the Central Rockies and will move east into the Central High
Plains by mid afternoon. Increasing large scale forcing for ascent
will spread over this morning and early afternoon as it
approaches. Decent depth of the wave with pressure on the 1.5 PV
surface about 500 hPa as it tracks in. This will coincide roughly
with modest lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis this morning.
Thereafter chances are ramped-down in the early afternoon over the
central-third of the local forecast area with no-mention of
precip in the forecast by mid afternoon. Cloudy conditions this
morning that will then give way to decreasing sky cover west to
east early-mid afternoon. Breezy winds expected today with max
gusts near 30-35 MPH out of the northwest. Tonight, quiet weather
prevails with mostly clear skies. Decent radiational cooling
conditions are expected with light winds tonight. Lows are
forecast to drop into mid-upper 20s to lower 30s (near to slightly
below seasonal normals).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

An upper level ridge will build across the western US on Sunday
which will result in dry conditions across the region through
Wednesday. The main story through mid-week will be the fluctuating
temperatures. Highs will start off near 70 on Sunday before
dropping back into the low to mid 60s on Monday. Temperatures drop
into the upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday before jumping back into
the low to mid 70s on Wednesday.

On Thursday, a front will drop southeast across the region. This
front will bring low rain chances (less than 30%) and cooler
temperatures across north central Nebraska. Temperatures drop back
into the 50s for the end of the week. Outside of a few isolated
precipitation chances on Friday and Saturday mornings, a mostly
dry forecast is also in store for Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds back into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A line of showers will continue to lift northeast and dissipate
this afternoon. The latest high resolution data suggests east of
the KVTN terminal by 18z with the activity reaching KONL by 20z.
Visibility under remains at 6sm or higher will little reduction in
ceilings. Dry air behind the band will allow for a deck of high
clouds but not much more. Thus VFR remains through the 18z
forecast cycle. Pre-frontal winds have been breezy early this
afternoon, but the latest guidance suggests these winds weakening
as the sun sets this evening.




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