Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280529
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1129 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Upper level disturbance is currently tracking northeast across the
area, with PV anomaly located in southeast Colorado. Moisture has
increased rapidly ahead of the system across central and eastern
Nebraska, with dew points rising into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Enough instability has developed just ahead of the cold front to
support scattered surface based thunderstorm development. Some hail
up to nickle size has occurred across Frontier county, and some
small hail is possible across Custer, Wheeler and Garfield counties
through early this evening. Otherwise a band of decent mid level
frontogenesis is located across western Nebraska, which is helping
to produce a band of rain. Expect this band, as well as the
aforementioned convection farther east, to quickly move northeast
and exit the area by late this evening. Otherwise the other story
will be the strong northwest winds that will develop Monday as
strong surface low pressure slowly moves north-northeast across
eastern South Dakota. Bufkit sounding data supports sustained speeds
of 25 to 30 MPH with gusts locally to 45 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The closed 500 mb low will move slowly from southeast North
Dakota Monday monday night into southwest Minnesota Tuesday. Wrap
around light snow is possible on the southwestern periphery of
the precipitation area, with the higher pops from 40 to 50 percent
near the South dakota border. The highest likely pops near 60
percent are placed across the Pine Ridge into northwest Cherry
county. This will be the favored location where light snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible. This system will
bring windy conditions Tuesday as 700 mb heights are rather
tightly packed and breezy conditions into Wednesday.

The low pressure system to move slowly from southern Minnesota into
the western Great Lakes Region Tuesday night into Wednesday with
a long wave trough digging south across the the Southern Plains
into the middle Mississippi Valley. Snow chances will diminish
across the north and end by Wednesday morning. This amplified
northwest flow aloft persisting across western Nebraska to bring
colder temperatures with highs from the low 30s parts of the
north central to the upper 30s southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Friday, even colder with upper 20s to lower 30s with 850 mb
temperatures of -5C to -8C. A gradual warmup Saturday and Sunday,
reaching the lower to mid 40s by Sunday. Dry conditions are
expected Thursday through Sunday as an upper trough digs
southward across the Great Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

For the KLBF terminal: Expect broken high clouds overnight tonight
through late morning Monday. CIGS will range from 15000 to 25000
FT AGL. Expect few to scattered high clouds for Monday afternoon
and evening. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken to overcast
skies overnight into Monday morning with CIGS ranging from 10000
to 20000 FT AGL. CIGS will lower to 5000 to 8000 FT AGL Monday
afternoon and persist through Monday evening. Winds will be strong
on Monday with west northwest winds gusting as high as 35 KTS
during the afternoon hours on Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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