Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 222319 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

H5 ANALYSIS HAS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS AND CANADA. A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SERN CANADA. A SECONDARY LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WEST OF THE LOW...RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
...NORTH INTO SRN ALBERTA. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A CLOSED LOW WAS
LOCATED APPROX 200 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
WAS ANCHORED ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING AND NERN COLORADO.
SRLY WINDS WERE PRESENT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND 3 PM CDT TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BENEATH
RIDGING ALOFT. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN MIXED OVERNIGHT AS SOME
OF THE STRONGER WIND ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE...AND A MILD NIGHT
IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW WILL HELP ADVECT MODIFIED GULF AIR NORTH INTO THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
80S BY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP...WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1800 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO BE ROUGHLY
LOCATED FROM MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO
CAPPED. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TILL AFTER 600 PM
SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

MID RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES SAT EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PCPN
CHANCES IN TO SUNDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE
THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES
MONDAY. BY 00Z SUNDAY...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A TANDEM OF SHORTWAVES...WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...AS WELL AS NWRN KS/SWRN NEBRASKA
EARLY SAT EVENING. AS THESE SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS WESTERN
AND FAR SOUTWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS
INCREASED SOMEWHAT WITH THIS MORNING/S FCST RUNS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
HAS INCREASED TO 30 TO 40 KTS FROM YESTERDAY/S FCST OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SWATH OF 2200+ J/KG SB CAPE ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 00Z SUNDAY...WHICH REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH 03Z
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY SRLY TO
THE SURFACE AND NOT A TON OF LOW LEVEL TURNING NOTED...AM THINKING
ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND OR WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...ALBEIT
LIMITED ATTM. OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY...FEEL AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED HERE AND HAVE
INSERTED THEM IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO FAR SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR
THE MOST PART SUNDAY...DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE BEST FORCING IS
IN PROXIMITY TO THE COSED LOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTH...MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE EXITING DRYLINE...AND A LACK OF
DECENT FORCING WELL SOUTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDS
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR RAIN BEING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER AS H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 10C IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...WITH MIDDLE
TEENS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CWA. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60
IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO 75 IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE THREAT
FOR PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
FAVORABLE LIFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW TRAVERSES
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NRN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO WHEN THE LOW EXITS MONDAY.

LONG RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FCST. AFTER BENIGN WEATHER MONDAY...THE
THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY AFTN.
THEREAFTER ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
HIGHWAY 61 WITH A STORM MOTION NEAR 245/20KTS.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO NEBRASKA. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING MAY TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN NEAR
HIGHWAY 61. THE GENERAL FCST CONSENSUS HOWEVER SUGGESTS STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL WAIT UNTIL EARLY EVENING AND THE ATM WILL REMAIN
CAPPED DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC



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