Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181723 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Today`s temperature forecast uses a blend of the warmest models
which are the HRRR and RAP solutions for highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A Pacific cold front will move through during the day and
the cooler air will lower h850mb temperatures from 20C to 10-15C.

The models show winds aloft weakening this afternoon and the jet-
induced cloudiness across wrn Neb should dissipate. The forecast
then is for mostly sunny or sunny skies.

Blended guidance plus bias correction was the basis for lows in the
upper 30s and to lower 40s tonight. South winds quickly redevelop
tonight which will disrupt the radiational cooling process.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Upper level ridging will amplify ahead of an approaching long wave
trough that will cross the area Friday night into Saturday. This
spells continued warm weather Thursday and Friday, but as the low
level flow becomes more southerly, it won`t be as dry, as moist gulf
air gets pulled northward into the central portions of the country.
By Friday night, models indicate surface dew points will rise into
the mid and possibly upper 50s, with H850mb dew points 12 to 14C.
The moisture will be in place as a cold front and upper trough begin
to move into the region late Friday night. Mid level warm air
advection also increases Friday into Friday night, with decent mid
level destabilization ahead of the front Friday night. Have added
some thunder to account for this late Friday night as the front
pushes quickly through. Most if not all of the shower/thunder
activity will be confined to northern Nebraska.

The cold front and upper trough quickly exit the area Saturday.
Expect breezy conditions in the wake of the cold front with highs
settling back into the lower 60s. Westerly downslope flow will
help boost highs into the upper 60s Sunday, with highs remaining
in the 60s the first of next week beneath dry zonal flow aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A cold front moved through VTN a little after 14Z this morning
and then moved through LBF around 16Z. Wind gusts were from the
North between 25 and 30KT with the passage of the front. It will
continue to move south and will be across the KS border by 20Z.
Winds will continue out of the NNE for the next few hours behind
the front. Thereafter, winds will weaken at the surface and skies
will clear. There will be another push of lower level SWerly
winds right off the deck that could cause some LLWS issues at VTN
for a few hours overnight.




LONG TERM...Taylor
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