Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 251725 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1225 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

At 08z...a weak cold front extended from near Rapid City SD through
Douglas and Casper WY as surface low pressure extended along the
central high plains. A line of isolated showers and storms extended
near a warm front aloft north to south from the central Dakotas
through Central Nebraska. Otherwise skies were clear to partly
cloudy in western Nebraska. temperature much milder than 24 hours
ago currently ranging in the 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Updated forecast to include thunder.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Today/Tonight...An upper level low in southern Saskatchewan will
pivot slowly east today as the upper trough extending south from the
low pushes east into the Northern and Central Plains. This will push
a weak cold front slowly through western nebraska today. Winds
behind the front will turn to the north, but remain light at 5 to 10
mph. The front will actually aid in warming up temperatures across
the forecast area. Southwest Nebraska should reach the mid to upper
70s, with near 73 across the east. In the northwest slightly cooler
today near 70. Isolated showers are possible today in vicinity of
the front. Models however are focusing on development to be near a
disturbance in north central CO and southeast WY at 18z today, which
will translate eastward into the southern half of the panhandle and
northeast CO. The leading edge of storm development should reach the
southeastern panhandle by 20z and eastward into southwest Nebraska
by 00z as pops increase to 30 to 50 percent. Parameters are
favorable for a few strong or severe storms late this afternoon and
evening across the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska.
Surface based capes increase to around 1500 j/kg near and south of
Oshkosh through North Platte along with 0-6km shear up to 40 kts.
Lower and mid level lapse rates are also fairly steep.

For tonight, a 40 to 60 percent chance for showers and storms this
evening southeast panhandle and southwest, with a few strong or
severe storms possible.  A slight chance for showers and storms near
and just north of highway 2.  Chances diminish after midnight.
Northeastern areas should remain dry overnight. Lows tonight range
from the mid 40s northwest to around 50 southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Upper level low pressure will slowly wobble across southern
Canada through Tuesday before finally lifting northeast into
Quebec Wednesday. This will be the main weather player for the
central and northern plains through Tuesday before it looses it`s
grip by Wednesday.

The main precipitation chances will be early in the forecast
period (Friday and Saturday), as an upper level disturbance
tracks from the northern Rockies through the central plains on
the southern periphery of the large Canadian upper low.

There continues to be a concern for a few severe thunderstorms
across southwest Nebraska late Friday afternoon and evening.
Increasingly moist southeast low level upslope flow, will combine
with steep mid level lapse rates and surface heating and yield
surface based cape values approaching 1500 J/KG by late Friday
afternoon. As the upper level disturbance approaches, large scale
lift will aid in thunderstorm initiation in the favorable upslope
environment across the panhandle. These storms will track east-
southeast across much of the area through the evening and
overnight, likely forming upscale into an MCS. Prior to MCS
development, isolated supercells with the potential for large hail
will exist within area of higher instability across southwest
Nebraska.

The upper level disturbance will take it`s time crossing the area
Friday night into Saturday, with showers likely lasting into at
least early Saturday afternoon. Saturday will be the coolest day
of the holiday weekend, with highs in the 60s.

By Sunday into Monday, the upper low will be located to north of
the Great Lakes. This will keep our area in northwest flow aloft,
with a drying trend is seen in the boundary layer through the mid
and upper levels. This will allow for more sunshine and have
removed any mention of rain these days. Have warmed highs Sunday
as thermal ridging develops ahead of a weak southward moving cold
front that arrives Monday. Low to mid 70s expected Sunday with mid
60s to around 70 behind the cold front Memorial Day. Similar highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Thunderstorms moving to the east of KONL early this afternoon.
Next round will move across western Nebraska late this afternoon
into the evening. Some of these storms in the KIML vicinity may
contain quarter sized hail and strong winds. Mid and high clouds
with relatively drier lower layers. Have kept thunderstorms to the
south of KVTN taf site. Have carried a tempo for KLBF with
thunderstorm passage between 2602z and 2604z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Power
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power


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