Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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567
FXUS63 KLBF 221149 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed across Ncntl Neb
this morning which marks the location of a weak short wave. A
Pacific cold front will move into Wrn Neb this morning and become
stationary. The combination of the short wave and the Pacific
front will push a dryline east to near Highway 61 using the HRRR
and NAMDNG models or Highway 83 using the RAP and GFS. The
forecast uses Highway 61 as the dryline location which is close to
the SPC outlook for severe weather. The dryline will actually move
to near Highway 83 early this afternoon and then retreat west by
00z setting the stage for severe weather as temperatures warm into
the 80s.

The HRRR models and NAMDNG show dominant right moving supercells
developing across Wrn Neb around 22z between highways 61 and 83.
These models were correct forecasting a storm to develop over Wrn KS
Saturday.

Some sort of QLCS develops tonight 03z-09z across Nrn Neb which
clears the fcst area around 12z Monday morning. This has been
advertised by the NAM12 for several model runs. It is uncertain
whether this system would produce widespread severe weather. The
storms this aftn and early this evening should be quite capable of
large or very large hail and wind damage. In fact the significant
tornado parameter in the NAM12 model is quite high around 22z when
instability is peaking. A tornado may form.

Otherwise...winds remain strong across Ncntl Neb today and weaken
across Wrn Neb as the Pacific front moves east. The super-ensemble
dew point forecast shows lower to mid 60s ahead of the front this
afternoon which is a few degrees less than the very unstable NAM12
model.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The cold front will continue moving eastward into eastern
Nebraska by Monday morning. Surface high pressure will then be
allowed to build into the region keeping most of central Nebraska
dry. This dry spell will be short-lived, however, as rain showers
return Monday night. A series of weak low pressure systems will
continue to impact the area through the end of the week, resulting
in a potentially wet week. Severe storms are not anticipated at this
time, but will continued to be monitored over the next couple days.
Temperature-wise...high temps will hold steady in the upper 70s for
Monday and Tuesday, before gradually dropping down into the low to
mid-70s by next weekend. Overall, nighttime lows will remain in the
low to mid-50s through next Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The general model consensus suggests MVFR/IFR cigs along and east
of Highway 83 will improve to VFR/MVFR 17z-19z. VFR is expected
west of Highway 83 today.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop around 22z between
Hwy 61 and Hwy 83 using the NAM/HRRR/RAP models. Storm development
is expected to become numerous north of Interstate 80 this evening
and continue overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

WPC indicates 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall in the next 7
days. Fortunately...most of this rain will likely fall along east of
Highway 83 which would have less impact on the ongoing river
flooding on the North Platte River above and below Lake McConaughy.
Flooding will continue on the North Platte River into June.

There is no significant change on the South Platte River. The river
continues to slowly rise but remain below flood stage. The same is
true on the Platte River near Brady.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...CDC



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