Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 182024
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID
AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH SETTLES EAST OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA WITH NO SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA.  A WEAK WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THIS WILL HELP FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA.  BESIDES A WIND SHIFT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
LITTLE FAN-FARE AS ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  GOOD BL MIXING IS EXPECTED...SO SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THAT OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY AS MIXING PULLS DOWN H85
TEMPERATURES OF 15-17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS  A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS SHOWN BY THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS IS SOME 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER /OR MORE/ THAN OBSERVED READINGS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS
FROM NEAR 72 EAST TO 75-77 ACROSS THE WEST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL 2M TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A
RESULT...POPS REMOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMOVED IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. SO WHILE TIMING OF POPS HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...POPS CONTINUE AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER. CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE MID/UPPER 60S. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOR DAY 6 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 7
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR FLIGHT RULES ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION
CONTINUES TO BE FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /KONL TERMINAL/ WHERE
PERSISTENT DECK OF STRATUS REMAINS...THIS DECK IS BREAKING AND
SHOULD CLEAR AOB 19Z. OTHERWISE THE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF GROUND FOG AT KLBF AND POSSIBLY KVTN...HOWEVER THIS OUTCOME IS
NOT CERTAIN AND WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE OFFICIAL TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS





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