Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 200443
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB





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