Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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251
FXUS63 KLBF 171140
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
540 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening, had a shortwave
trough of low pressure located near Kansas City MO, with a second,
stronger wave over Baja California. North of the Baja California
shortwave, a positive tilted ridge of high pressure extended from
northern California into western Montana. Across the eastern third
of the CONUS, west to east flow was present from New England south
to Florida. Water vapor imagery overnight has the Kansas City
shortwave now over northern Illinois with the Baja California,
disturbance over the Gulf of California. At the surface, high
pressure has built into western Nebraska overnight. This has led to
clearing skies and light northwesterly winds across western and
north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 AM CST ranged from 13
at Valentine to 25 at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Temperatures will be the main forecast challenge over the next 24
hours. For today, looking at vis satellite imagery from Monday
afternoon, and snow cover is minimal across western and north
central Nebraska. The inherited forecast had upper 30s to lower
40s for highs today. Looking at the latest MAV and MET guidance,
high temperatures in the lower to middle 40s are more in order for
this afternoon. With H85 temps ranging from 3-5C this afternoon,
the lower to middle 40s look plausible. That being said, boosted
highs a couple of degrees from the inherited forecast. Didn`t feel
comfortable increasing highs totally toward the guidance numbers
since ground conditions are fairly wet from the pcpn we received
on Sunday and Sunday night. For tonight, skies are expected to
remain mainly clear overnight with light westerly winds forecast.
With a fairly dry airmass in place and light westerly drainage
winds, decided to trend lows more toward the latest guidance,
which undercut the inherited forecast by 2 to 4 degrees. This
yielded lows in the teens and 20s, with some high single digits in
the western sandhills.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

A series of strong Pacific storm systems will be the main weather
story the next several days. Upper level ridging will dominate
across the central plains through Friday ahead of the first system
set to move onshore midweek. The ridging aloft spells quiet and
mild conditions with highs in the 40s to lower 50s.

The first in the series of systems (Pacific storm #1) will track
into the central plains Friday night into Saturday. The GFS and
ECMWF continue to indicate a rather potent tightly closed system
that tracks from the four corners into western Kansas, then turns
north-northeast across Nebraska into the Dakotas due to strong down
stream ridging aloft. The area will be void of any arctic air as the
system passes, and right now a mix of rain and snow are possible.
Available moisture for precipitation continues to look rather
limited with this system, and will limit pops to 40 or 50 percent at
this time.

A stronger system (Pacific storm #2) will follow quickly on the
heels on the first system, and track across the southern plains
Sunday into Monday. Models have been consistent in keeping this
second system south of Nebraska.

Finally the last in this series of storm systems (Pacific storm #3)
continues to take aim on Nebraska per the GFS and ECMWF for the
middle of next week. Ahead of the system expect a Pacific airmass to
dominate through the weekend into the first of next week keeping
conditions relatively mild.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Expect mainly clear skies across western and north central
Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Some thin high cloudiness may
impact the KVTN terminal overnight with ceilings around 25000 FT
AGL. For both terminals, winds will be from the west or southwest
at under 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler



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