Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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922
FXUS63 KLBF 160925
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

At H5 Closed low over Northeast CONUS. Upper ridge has shifted east
covering the western half of the CONUS and extending northeast to
the Hudson Bay. Closed low off Pacific Northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Models in good agreement in the near term. Upper ridge with very
warm air has moved east over all of western nebraska. Mostly sunny
skies today with west to northwest down slope flow will have
temperatures climbing into the low 70s over most areas. Records at
North Platte and Valentine seem to be attainable. Southwest flow
tonight will keep boundary layer mixed and hold temperatures in the
lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Little changes were made to the going forecast in the long term for
this issuance. High pressure due to high amplitude ridge across the
western US will result in dry and warm conditions through the
weekend. Expect highs to rise well into the 60s Friday through
Sunday with lows dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s through Sunday
night.

The next potential for precipitation arrives on Sunday night and
Monday. A cold front associated with a developing low pressure
system across southern Canada will push across the central Plains on
Sunday night. This front could ignite some thunderstorms across
portions of central Nebraska. Severe potential is expected to be low
at this time and any thunderstorms that do develop will be isolated
in nature.

High pressure returns to the region on Monday night and lasts
through mid-week. Dry weather will prevail through this timeframe
with warm temperatures continuing (highs in the 60s through
Wednesday). The potential for another round of precipitation arrives
next Thursday. Confidence is quite low on both the track, strength,
and precipitation type as this system is over a week away.
Therefore, just put a mention in the forecast for now until we can
get a better handle on the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR is expected all areas.

Upper level ridging will continue to present mostly clear skies
overnight through Thursday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temperatures have been raised into the 70s this afternoon for
daytime highs. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints in
the 20s result in minimum relative humidity this afternoon from 13
to 22 percent over most of western Nebraska. A surface trough lies
over western Nebraska early this morning. There is a good pressure
gradient this morning with west to northwest winds at 5 to 10mph.
The gradient will weaken through the morning as the trough drops
southeast into northeast Colorado. Winds will drop off through the
afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Areas of stronger winds
will not coincide with lowest relative humidity this afternoon and
fire weather highlights are not expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record high temperature for North Platte today is 71 set in 2011 and
record high temperature for Valentine is 71 also set in 2011. Both
of these records are attainable today.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...Power
CLIMATE...Power



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