Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 151955
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

At 19z...A weak cool front was analyzed across southern South
Dakota. Compressional heating Winner, SD to 100 degrees. Across
western Nebraska, some cumulus clods have developed with Thedford
the warmest at 96. Winds were mostly light and variable. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms southwest of the area in northeast CO,
northwest KS and extreme southwest NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Tonight...A weak closed upper low will remain nearly stationary
in east central CO, within an upper ridge across the Central
Plains into the Desert Southwest. This feature could bring
isolated thunderstorms to Chase county until sunset. A focus for
other isolated thunderstorms will be across parts of north
central Nebraska until mid evening near the weak cool front
sagging southward. Otherwise skies should remain mostly clear
with lows near 60 western Sandhills to near 65 in the east.

Sunday...The weak closed upper low will drift slowly east
northeast into northwest Kansas, and bring a slight chance for
thunderstorms to parts of Chase, Perkins, and Hayes Counties in
the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorms or two is possible across
other parts of southwest Nebraska, but chances too low for a
mention attm. Winds will become south by afternoon and promote
better mixing of 850 mb temps of 26-28C. Highs mainly from 91-96,
except 96-99 degrees Valentine, Ainsworth, Thedford areas.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

There will be at least a slight chance for thunderstorms over
portions of the forecast area each day for Monday through
Saturday. The main feature Sunday night through Monday night will
be the weak closed low forecast to lift northeast as an open wave
across Nebraska. Models bring the best chances by monday evening
across the north central and eastern areas. Precipitable water
values are forecast to reach 1.5 inches near and east of this
upper low feature. Any storms or organized clusters of storms will
be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall due to the
abundant moisture present and slow storm motion. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, forecast highs to be the hottest reaching 95 to 100, a
few spots could ultimately top 100. Despite the heat and upper
ridge influence, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for
thunderstorms, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
On Thursday, a weak front is forecast to drop south, and lower
highs to only slightly above normal from near 90 north to the
mid/upper 90s south, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms
across the north central. Highs to remain above normal Friday and
Saturday in the mid 90s, with isolated thunderstorms still
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening in
parts of north central Nebraska. A isolated storm could occur near
the KVTN terminal. No mention attm with confidence too low.
Otherwise VFR conditions to occur at the KLBF and KVTN terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg



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