Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 021206
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
606 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The H5 pattern tonight is fairly chaotic across the
CONUS and Canada. High pressure was located over the eastern Pacific
and over the Bahamas. A broad trough of low pressure was present
across the CONUS with a nice shortwave trough noted over the
northern Rockies, extending south west into Nevada. Further east, a
closed low was noted over eastern Quebec with a trough extending
south into the Mid Atlantic states. Current WV imagery has a nice
plume of Pacific moisture extending from Baja California into Texas.
North of this plume a second shortwave trough was noted over western
Arizona. At the surface, weak high pressure was present from the
Dakotas south into the Ozarks. West of this feature, a weak surface
trough of low pressure extended from eastern Montana into
northeastern Colorado. Mid level clouds were abundant with the high
pressure and extended from the Dakotas south into the Nebraska
Sandhills. Temperatures as of 3 AM CST ranged from 15 degrees at
Ogallala and North Platte to 27 at Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Temperatures and clouds will be
the main forecast challenges over the next 24 hours. For today:
Highs will vary widely across the forecast area as cloud cover is
expected to persist across the northern CWA through this afternoon.
Further south, clouds will be more scattered in nature, so highs in
the lower 40s are on track. With the anticipated cloud cover
expected over northern Nebraska, highs will struggle to get out of
the middle 30s. For tonight: The before mentioned trough of low
pressure over the intermountain west, will track into the central
and northern high plains. Along and east of this feature, Pacific
moisture will continue to stream into the southern plains overnight.
This will lead to increased cloudiness across southwestern, into
central portions of the forecast area overnight. Inherited forecast
was dry for tonight which is supported by the 00z NAM12, and the 00z
GFS and EC solns. However, the 06z NAM12 solution was farther north
with its moisture and lift, and actually generates a few hundredths
of an inch of pcpn across far swrn into sern portions of the
forecast area overnight tonight. For now, will leave the far
southern CWA dry, which is in agreement to the neighboring offices
to the south and southeast. Will advise the day crew to monitor any
northward shift in fcst pcpn with this mornings runs. If so, we need
may need to place a chance of snow in the forecast for tonight in
the southern and sern CWA. For now, will just increase clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

A mild and dry weekend is expected across western and north central
Nebraska. A weak shortwave will quickly move east across the Dakotas
Saturday and Saturday night. No precipitation is expected in our
area from this system, and only some very light precipitation is
expected across portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota as the wave
passes. Highs will be mild, generally in the lower to middle 40s on
Saturday. A Pacific cold front will move through Saturday night in
association with the northern plains shortwave. Temperatures will
actually be warmer behind the front on Sunday, as downslope westerly
Chinook wind aides in the warming. Expect highs Sunday to approach
50 degrees across far southwest Nebraska, with mid to upper 40s
expected elsewhere.

Big changes are still on tap for next week. A deep trough of low
pressure will be carved across the western third of the country
Monday into Tuesday, with the trough progressing eastward Wednesday
into Thursday. Neither the GFS or ECMWF currently indicate that a
significant storm will evolve out of the trough, but both show a 12
to 18 hour period of light to perhaps moderate snow. The snow would
be the result of strong mid level frontogenesis that develops in the
wake of a significant arctic cold front. A few inches of snow are
certainly possible, and strong winds behind the front could make
things rather interesting as the powdery nature of the snow will
easily blow around. Will continue to monitor the evolution of this
system closely. The other story is the cold air, the first real
arctic outbreak of the season. Wind chills by mid week are
forecasted to be as much as 15 degrees below zero, with actual
temperatures in the teens for highs and single digits for lows. The
coldest day looks to be Wednesday at this point, with some recovery
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Over the next 24 hours, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy
across western and north central Nebraska. Scattered to broken
CIGS of 7000 to 10000 FT AGL are expected for today and tonight.
For tonight, CIGS will fall to around 3000 FT AGL at the KLBF
terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler



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