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000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST WARMING THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MIXING TO 850MB CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL
INCREASING THE ONGOING FORECAST OF NEAR 40 TO MID 40S STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS