


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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525 FXUS63 KLBF 111148 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A threat for strong to briefly severe storms across southwest and central Nebraska, as well as eastern portions of north central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain also possible across the southeast panhandle and southwest Nebraska this evening. - Highs fall back into the low 80s Saturday with dry conditions, before a quick warmup into the low 90s expected by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A weak front moved through western Nebraska early this morning. Highs today will range from 75 at Gordon, where the cold front will move in earlier, to the upper 80s to near 90 in the southwest. An upper trough will move through the Northern Plains today and across Nebraska tonight. This will drive a cold front into the northwest Sandhills later this afternoon and through the remainder of the forecast area by midnight. A disturbance will cross southeast Wyoming and north central Colorado late afternoon and track southeast across the southern panhandle and southwest Nebraska this evening into the early morning hours. The latest model guidance supports likely POPs across this area with 30-35KT of deep layer shear. PWATs will increase to 1.25 to 1.33 inches ahead of the advancing cold front. The GFS, NAM and the majority of the CAMs show scattered storms developing into a large custer or two of storms this evening from the southeast panhandle across southwest Nebraska. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC south of a line from Alliance through Valentine. Hail to 1 inch diameter and locally strong to briefly severe wind gusts will be possible until mid evening, transitioning to more of a wind and locally heavy rain threat mid evening through midnight. The precipitation will exit southern areas late tonight. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall extends across this area as well. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Dry conditions are forecast Saturday through Monday. Sunny skies Saturday with light and variable winds as surface high pressure moves across the region. Highs will fall back into the low 80s. An upper ridge builds in and flattens out Sunday into Monday with highs returning to 90 to 95. Storm chances return by Monday evening across the west and northwest, with higher chances by Tuesday night as a surface front briefly stalls across northern Kansas. Wednesday is expected to be much cooler from 70 to 75 behind the cold front with considerable cloudiness and chances for showers and a few storms. Continued cool Thursday, with just a slight chance for showers. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Weak outflow in the wake of storms in Iowa have developed an areas of stratus in portions of western Nebraska. This is not expected to last much past 14Z. Have included an IFR ceilings at KLBF until 14Z, although improvement to VFR may occur by 13Z. The main forecast concern for late this afternoon into tonight will be thunderstorms, especially at KLBF. Have included prevailing -TSRA sct025 OVC035CB from 04Z-08Z, with timing still somewhat uncertain. Chances too low at KVTN for a mention of thunderstorms. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Roberg