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000
FXUS63 KLBF 230302 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS RIDGE
WILL BECOME REORIENTED AND PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FCST AREA ALLOWING COOL AIR TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WHICH
WILL DROP THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
HOLD TOGETHER LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH WELL SOUTH INTO THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE EXPANDED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INSIST THAT THE
STORMS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...AWAY FROM THE AREA OF POSSIBLE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MONTANA.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS NOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. FORCING
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH THE SHORTWAVES REMAINING WELL NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTHWEST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TO THE LOWER 90S WESTERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE RUNNER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH SD WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BRUSHES NCNTL NEB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HOT PROD WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS WRN NEB WITH
THE THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EAST INTO NCNTL NEB BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS MEANS WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
POPS ARE LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT GIVEN THAT THE FCST AREA WILL
CAPPING THE SRN FRINGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

A TORCH-FEST IS ON FOR THURSDAY AS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A 590
DM THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND PUSH THE DRYLINE TO NEAR
HIGHWAY 83 BY LATE AFTN. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 ACROSS WRN NEB WITH UPPER 80S AND HUMIDITY IN THE EAST.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DRYLINE FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED DRY TSTMS THURSDAY EVENING. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO CAP THE 7000 J/KG MUCAPE ALONG
HWY 183.

THE THERMAL RIDGE EXITS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS...MAYBE WARMER. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS COOLS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S
AND SENDS THE 7000 CAPE PACKING SOUTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SERIES OF PACIFIC AND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE LAST AND COOLEST
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S RULE. THE FCST IS GENERALLY DRY SAVE FOR
ISOLATED POPS NORTH AND WEST BASED ON LAST NIGHTS ECM WHICH DID NOT
COME IN THIS MORNING. THIS MORNINGS 12Z GFS AND GEM MODELS ARE DRY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE HOT SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MIGRATES WEST PLACING THE FCST AREA IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER
23/04Z. VICINITY OF STORMS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO AT KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY
BRING STRATUS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT AND WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER