Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Lead wave will rotate east/northeast into KS and lift north
through central and eastern Nebraska tonight. Strong/Severe
convection will congeal into an MCS across KS early this evening.
This activity will lift north and northeast into central and
eastern Nebraska tonight. In our immediate area the precipitation
associated with this MCS generally looks to remain east of a line
from North Platte to Valentine. To the west of this line scattered
showers can be expected with more numerous showers across the
panhandle in closer proximity to the main upper low. Very cool
tonight with lows falling into the mid 30s across northwest
Nebraska and lower to mid 40s elsewhere.

Main upper low will migrate toward SW KS by later Friday
afternoon. Isentropic lift persists all day across the area
ahead of the low, and with increasing moisture advection, cannot
rule out a shower anytime during the day. The best chance though
will be late afternoon when convection develops across western KS
and begins to lift north into the area. Much below normal
temperatures will continue, with northeast low level upslope flow
keeping highs in the 40s to near 50.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The sensible weather highlights this period revolves around wet
and cool conditions with below normal temperatures prevailing.
Coolest day on Saturday where highs will be about 15 to 25
degrees below seasonal normals. Period begins with increased
chances for precipitation through much of Saturday with a short
reprieve with dry conditions then anticipated Saturday night and
Sunday. Unsettled weather is then expected Monday through Tuesday.

The large scale pattern will feature a long wave trough early
Friday night over much of the western and central CONUS inland
from the west coast with a closed low over the Central High
Plains. Elsewhere, a ridge is expected to be present upstream and
downstream of this feature over the West Coast and southeast US to
the Great Lakes, respectively. The long term period will start
within a period of wet weather with increased rain chances. The
closed upper low will lift slowly over the next 24 hrs into the
Middle Missouri Valley wherein ample large scale forcing for
ascent is expected Friday night into Saturday. This in combination
with associated lower level tropospheric zone of deformation and
frontogenesis that is anticipated to setup over southwestern NE
and central NE will prompt higher-end PoPs tomorrow night into
Saturday morning (likely PoPs) though some differences exist
location of forcing with guidance. Also, tomorrow night there is
increasing potential for changeover to rain/snow mix or all snow
giving thermal profiles and cooling aloft at low-levels, however,
impacts are expected to be minimal given scant snow accumulations.
Lastly, tomorrow night there is low potential for embedded thunder
as well. Beginning Saturday drier air will start to enter the
forecast area with precipitation chances decreasing Saturday and
Saturday evening from southwest to northeast. Thereafter, the
upper level low will slowly lift into the MN Arrowhead region by

Beyond Sunday, sensible weather will continue to be characterized
by cool conditions though no days look to be as cool as forecast
Friday and Saturday. The large scale pattern will feature large
scale troughing dominating the central and eastern CONUS and a
ridge prevailing over the West Coast through Tuesday. A surface
cold front is expected to advance southward Monday as a shortwave
trough moves through the region and this will bring the potential
for thunderstorms to the local forecast area Monday afternoon and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Latest satellite imagery and surface plot shows cloudy skies and
IFR-MVFR ceilings. Local radar shows rain showers moving
northward through the eastern NEB Panhandle and far wester NEB. A
mix of aviation concerns this TAF package as a slow moving weather
system will affects the region prompting low ceilings, visibility
restrictions at times, gusty winbds, and potential for moderate-
heavy rain. Rain will develop and spread across western NEB to
north central NEB late afternoon-evening with wet conditions then
prevailing over the next 24 hrs. IFR conditions are expected to
largely prevail across western and north central NEB this evening
and overnight. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds already occurring
will persist into Friday.




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