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000
FXUS63 KLBF 191753
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN COLO WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. SIMILARLY THE COLD POOL FCST
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FCST TODAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW STORMS
WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO MID 70S EAST. TEMPS IN
THE EAST REALLY DEPEND ON THE ABILITY OF A WARM SECTOR TO OPEN UP.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD WARM UP
A BIT MORE IN THE EAST AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. OVERALL.. THE RUC LOOKED LIKE THE BEST FIT FOR THE JOB AS
IT SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THE H700 LOW IN ALL MODELS SHOULD DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE H500 MB COLD POOL LAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS NEB. THIS WILL LIFT SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS NORTH THROUGH ERN
NEB. THIS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT MUCH
MORE AS THE BETTER FOCUS IS ACROSS THE NORTH...PRESUMABLY. THERE ARE
QUITE A RANGE OF MODEL RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LESSER QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THAT THE BEST
FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ON MONDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
STACKED AND CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THE MAY SUN. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOMORROW...REMAINING
IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SOME
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH DAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF
MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AREAS RECEIVING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE SFC
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...TAYLOR