Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 270853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Surface low pressure along SW Nebraska/NW Kansas border this
morning. The 500 MB low is a little to the west of the sfc low, over
east central Colorado. Good moisture rotating around the low
pressure system with a couple of bands of showers/embedded thunder
rotating to the north/west across the CWA. 3 am temps generally in
the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The low pressure system will dominate the weather the next 24 hours.
Models in good agreement as the low slowly pushes to the east today
across western KS then picks up a little speed as it lifts to the
northeast into eastern Nebraska tonight. Moisture will continue to
wrap into/around the system with a several bands expected to pivot
across the CWA today and tonight. A dry slot early this morning
across SW Nebraska but is expected to fill in during the morning
hours with a good chance for rain across the area. So far not much
in the way of thunder and expect this to continue for the morning
hours. Once we get a little daytime heating we add a little more
instability and increase the chances for some thunder. The SPC does
include the eastern portion of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe
weather, and it can not be ruled out. Wind and hail would be the
threat as the better low level shear is to the southeast of the CWA.
As the low lifts to the northeast overnight, dry air will get drawn
into the back side of the system and bring an end to the showers in
the west. As for temps, cooler today as the clouds/showers will keep
temps from rising to far. Expect some breaks as the bands move
across the area and temps could yo yo from the mid 50s to the mid
60s and locally across N central around 70. Tonight cool in the west
as some clearing allow for temps to fall into the 40s...otherwise
lower to mid 50s in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper level low will be in the process of opening up and moving
northeast across the region Saturday. Models agree on a fairly wet
morning, with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
along and east of Highway 83. Decent lift and moisture in this area,
and the ECMWF even indicating a trowal signature across eastern
portions of north central Nebraska. By afternoon as system begins to
move off to the northeast, some sunshine expected west of Highway
83, but to the east expect some stratocumulus to linger at the very
least, so little in the way of sun until perhaps early evening.

Drier and warmer weather is expected Sunday. Models still showing
850mb temps rising into the upper teens to lower 20s, so pretty
confident most areas should see highs near 80 degrees or in the
lower 80s.

The next upper low will drop into the northern rockies and into the
northern plains Memorial Day through mid week. Gulf moisture will
surge back north Memorial Day, and as a cold front surges southeast
across the area Monday night expect showers and storms to become
likely once again.

As the upper low tracks towards the Great Lakes Wednesday, drier
northwest flow aloft will develop. At the surface expect mild
temperatures, with a mix of Canadian and Pacific airmasses keeping
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms will copntinue from
soputhwest into north central Nebraska over night. Ceilings will
Ceilings will lower into mvfr categories through the early
morning on Friday. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected
after midnight with visibilities lowering into the mvfr category
with rainshowers and fog. Ceilings will begin to lift through
Friday afternoon.


Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The first wave from the increased releases from Lake McConaughy has
starting to push the North Platte River at North Platte up above
moderate flood stage (6.5 feet) and will continue to rise as the
next wave arrives over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will push the
river close to major flood stage (7.0 feet). The added water will
also return the Platte River at Brady back above minor flood stage.
Otherwise little change to the area rivers at the moment. However
with the additional rainfall yesterday and today, will likely see
some slight rises on a few of the rivers and this will be monitored
closely. Watch for updates as reports come in and the RFC produces
new model guidance.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Taylor
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