Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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472
FXUS63 KLBF 211127 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Low pressure develops across Srn Alberta today and tonight. South
winds increase to 10 to 15 mph this morning and a thermal ridge
will build east into Wrn Nebraska. A blend of guidance plus bias
correction produces highs in the 80s. South winds continue tonight
and the same forecast procedure produces lows in the 50s to around
60.

Moisture gradually returns northward with dew points increasing
through the 40s and into the 50s tonight. Skies remain clear
overnight. A check on the visibility and stratus products from the
NAM and SREF models suggest no fog or clouds will form...a low level
jet operates tonight which would more likely produce stratus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Weak upper level ridging will be in control Monday and Tuesday
ahead of a strong upper level low and long wave trough that will
be pushing into western Canada and the Pacific northwest. Highs
both Monday and Tuesday will reach the near or few degrees above
90, with Monday being the warmest day of the two.

As the upper level low progresses east into southern Canada later
Tuesday, a cold front will plunge south into the region. The ECMWF
and NAM models agree that the front will be entering into
northwest Nebraska near peak heating. Very moist and unstable
atmosphere ahead of the front should allow for at least scattered
late afternoon convection to develop along the front. Shear is
weak so widespread severe storms seem unlikely, but K index values
are quite high, and heavy rain could be a concern Tuesday night with
such a moist atmosphere ahead of the front.

Cooler Canadian air moves south into the region Wed thru Fri with
highs mostly in the 70s. A fairly significant shortwave should
support at least scattered showers/thunder Friday and Friday
night. Then mainly dry and warmer for the weekend as weak ridging
aloft develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR is expected all areas today and tonight. Low pressure will
form on the Nrn high plains and this will draw warm stable air
into Nebraska.

A southerly low level jet forms tonight...45-50kt...and this is
expected to affect most of Ncntl Neb east of highway 61.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC



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