Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 081003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
403 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Minimal impacts are expected today and tonight. The main forecast
highlights sensible weather-wise over the next 24 hours include:
strong northwesterly breezes and warmer highs than yesterday
(generally by around 10 degrees). Gusts are expected to generally
peak 30-40 MPH this afternoon, strongest across the eastern
Panhandle into western NEB. Highs will largely be in the 40s
across much of the forecast area, thus slightly above seasonable
normal values.

Largely there has been little change in the long term pattern.
Water vapor images shows a highly amplified pattern in place. An
climatological anomalous upper level ridge is positioned over the
West Coast extending north into the Yukon and Northwest
Territories, elsewhere a elongated upper level trough extends
across the central and eastern CONUS. Pronounced meridional flow
remains in place aloft at the mid and lower levels and will
persist today. However, western NEB will see a modest increase in
low-level temperatures today with respect to 850 hPa temperatures.
This combined with sufficient mixing should contribute to warmer
highs compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, strong breezes are
expected today peaking late morning-afternoon. Latest BUFKIT
soundings show good potential for winds to mix down with 850 hPa
winds largely spanning 30-40 kts. With anticipated momentum
transfer and mean mixed-layer winds exceeding 30 kts, gusts up to
40-45 MPH will be possible, especially in the southeast Panhandle
and far southwest NEB. With respect to sky cover, a mix of
sunshine and clouds are expected today with a gradually clearing
trend taking hold late tonight from west-east. While winds will
lessen some tonight, winds will remain elevated. This will promote
mild and above seasonable normal lows tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The anomalously strong upper ridge over the Western U.S. maintains
its position for the next several days, placing Nebraska in
persistent northwest flow. The ridge axis retrogrades a bit
towards the middle of next week as a low rides down the Rockies.
At the surface, the primary features are cold front passages on
Monday and Wednesday.

Despite the fropas and some shortwaves embedded in the strong
northwest flow, precip chances are limited due to scant
moisture. Forecast soundings and isentropic analysis suggest a
deep dry layer and overall subsidence/downglide. Temperature-wise,
trended toward the high end of guidance, especially Sunday with a
passing 11C H85 thermal ridge (around 90%ile of climo) and mostly
sunny skies. Have highs in the lower 60s in spots, which is 20
degrees above normal. Fairly substantial CAA is due Monday with
H85 temps dropping back below freezing during the day and
approaching -5C northeast Neb. Temps rebound nicely before the
next front Wed with the help of downsloping winds. Continued
previous forecast trends of favoring higher winds for Monday with
the fropa. The model suite is in general agreement with H85 flow
near 50 kts, sfc pressure changes of around 1mb/hr, 1.5PVU anomaly
dropping through, and a 100+kt H3 jet max speeding across the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Mid and high clouds will continue over western Nebraska through
tonight into Friday. Strong gusty winds to develop on Friday over
western Nebraska from the southeast Nebraska Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska.


Issued at 353 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Fire weather conditions have the potential to reach critical
criteria on Sunday, primarily across southwest Nebraska. With
temperatures reaching 60F and dew points sliding into the lower
teens, relative humidity will drop below 15 percent. The limiting
factor will be wind, which is forecast to remain below 20 kts
(gusts). If the wind turns more westerly (than the current
forecast of north/northwest), conditions will be more favorable
for warmer, drier, and perhaps gustier. Will continue to highlight
in HWO, but hold off on any products (SPS/FWW) given the
marginality and uncertainty of the event.




LONG TERM...Snively
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