Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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649
FXUS63 KLBF 200918
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low
over southeastern Kansas with a trough of low pressure extending
south into the Arklatex. West of the low, a second trough of low
pressure extended from southern Oregon into southwestern Arizona.
Ridging aloft was present from the Carolinas north into the eastern
Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure was located over south
central South Dakota with a surface trough extending southwest of
the low into western and northwestern Nebraska. East of the trough,
low clouds and fog were present. Visibilities were lowest on the
western edge of the low cloudiness with visibilities as low as 1/2
of a mile at Ogallala and a quarter mile at Imperial. Elsewhere,
visibilities were generally around 5 miles. Temperatures were mild
tonight and ranged from 24 at Valentine to 41 at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Fog potential this morning, followed by the threat for
light precipitation later today and tonight are the main forecast
concerns. For this morning: Inherited forecast has a dense fog
advisory for a large chunk of western and north central Nebraska. As
of 3 AM, southwestern Nebraska is the only location which is at
criteria for dense fog. Even without us hitting criteria ATTM, feel
there is a lingering threat for fog and dense fog through mid
morning across central and eastern portions of the CWA. The latest
NAM12, HRRR, and WARW surface visibility products continue to hint
at the lowest visibilities transitioning slowly east into the mid
morning hours. Though patchy in nature, there is some model support
for dense fog this morning. That being said, will let the ongoing
dense fog advisory continue for now and evaluate this toward
sunrise. For the remainder of today, skies will be mostly cloudy
with residual stratus expected in the central and eastern CWA and
increasing mid clouds from the southwest later this morning into the
afternoon hours in the west. Isentropic lift will increase after 18z
in the southwest and will progress northeast into the central and
eastern forecast area this evening into the overnight hours.
Forecast soundings taken across central and eastern portions of the
forecast area indicate a decent amount of mid level dry air
initially, becoming saturated from the top down as mid level
moisture lifts into the region from the southwest. Have kept chances
for precipitation fairly low with this forecast issuance, as qpf`s
are expected to be fairly light. That being said, decided to cap
pops in the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures today will remain warm enough to support all rain with
a gradual change over to snow possible beyond mid evening. Again
with light qpf`s expected, any snow which does fall will be very
light with limited impacts expected. With cloud cover anticipated
tonight, lows will be in the 20s which is mild for this time of
year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The low pressure system from Friday night will be well northeast of
the region by Saturday, allowing a return to dry weather as high
pressure builds into the area. High pressure will continue through
the weekend, keeping all precipitation well out of the region
through Monday. Temperatures remain warm as well, with highs
forecasted in the 40s for Saturday through Monday.

The next potential winter system arrives on Monday night. While
models are consistent in the development of a strong system, the
uncertainty lies in the track of the system. Current trends have
been taking the system on a more northerly track which will have a
bigger impact across northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota.
However, any slight adjustments in the track will result in major
changes in impacted locations. Due to the uncertainty that exists
still, will not put a big emphasis on total snow accumulations just
yet. For now, general trends look like snow accumulations up to at
least 6 inches are definitely possible with the highest amounts east
of Highway 83 and north of I-80. Snow will continue through Tuesday
afternoon before moving east of the forecast area by late Tuesday.
Winds behind this system are also expected to increase on Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds up to 30 to 35 mph
Tuesday evening could cause reduced visibilities across locations
that received snowfall earlier in the day. Extra caution will be
needed if traveling Tuesday night as roadways across portions of
north central Nebraska could become quite dangerous.

A high amplitude ridge will build across the Pacific Northwest on
Wednesday afternoon resulting in a strong high pressure system to
set up across the western US. Therefore, dry weather and high
temperatures in the 30s will return for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

IFR ceilings continue near and east of a line from OGA through
VTN. A slow eastward movement of this line is forecast. In
addition, visibilities remain low along the western side of the
low stratus at OGA and IML. LIFR conditions are forecast at KLBF
from 10z until 17z. Although KVTN is currently 3sm br skc, VFR
conditions should prevail 09z and after as the edge of the stratus
edges further east of KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for
NEZ007>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Roberg



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