Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 141737
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1137 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The main weather highlights the next 24 hours include: above-
normal highs, largely 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, and
some patchy fog early in the morning. While IR and NtMicro RGB
satellite imagery shows largely clear skies overhead, upstream in
CO and KS are high thin clouds. Otherwise, latest surface plot and
a limited number of web cams indicate at least some patchy fog.
Restrictions in visibility are confined to just a few ASOS/AWOS
sites in western NEB and they show 4SM or greater visibility.

Current thinking is any patchy fog will be short-lived and
of limited impact. Otherwise, clouds will continue to increase
gradually today. Guidance in fair agreement with respect to sky
trends and humidity profiles per BUFKIT soundings. Filtered
sunshine is expected across southwest NEB while skies stay mostly
clear a little longer over northern NEB. Highs are expected to be
warmer than yesterday nonetheless, about 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonable normal values. Latest snow depth reports and NOHRSC
analyses still show snow cover exceeding 2 inches across portions
of southwest NEB into the eastern Sandhills and northern NEB,
elsewhere zero to trace across the southeast and east central NEB
Panhandle. As such, snow cover there is expected to modulate
temperatures some with the warmest highs occurring in the eastern
Panhandle and extreme southwest NEB. Otherwise, light
southwesterly breezes will prevail today, highest in the
Sandhills, with light winds expected tonight. Partly clear/mostly
cloudy skies continue overnight with another night of mild lows
anticipated (mainly in the 20s).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Beginning 12z Thursday. There`s generally good agreement in the
synoptic scale in the mid and long range. The models agree that
west to northwest flow will remain progressive into early next
week, but then turn southwest with a western conus trough. The
pattern favors several Arctic intrusions across the high plains
and Sandhills with the first push coming Thursday and a stronger
front early next week. The initial push of cooler air will be a
glancing blow and relatively minor as to what we`ve seen since
late December. The latest consensus would suggest highs on Friday
in the 30s with single digit/sub zero lows. The center of the high
pressure will rapidly progress east making the mid-mississippi
valley by nightfall Friday evening. Return flow will allow near
seasonal overnight lows and highs on Saturday. Precipitation wise,
moisture will be lacking with the front with upper level support
favoring areas north and west of the forecast area. Thus
precipitation will be light and mainly confined to our northern
border.

Sunday appears to be the warmest day of the extended with westerly
flow in the mid and lower levels warming highs into the 40s and
50s. Wouldn`t be surprised to see lower 60s just ahead of the next
Arctic front across southwest Nebraska in the afternoon. The
pressure gradient associated with the front is strong, so breezy
to gusty conditions are warranted. Early next week much of the
region will be under the influence of the Arctic high, well below
normal temperatures are currently forecast. Otherwise with upper
jet largely displaced to the north of the CWA, dry conditions are
expected save for possibly our north. The trough does begin to
swing through early next week with increasing qg across
northwest/western Nebraska, some light snow would be possible
through middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conds are expected over the next 18 hour period across
western and north central Nebraska. Some broken high cloudiness
with cigs ranging from 15000 to 20000 FT AGL will develop this
afternoon and evening and will persist into daybreak Thursday.
Ceilings will fall and become MVFR at the KVTN terminal after 15z
Thursday. Northerly winds will increase as well with gusts appg 15
to 20 KTS at the KVTN terminal after 15z Thursday.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Buttler



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