Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 271732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TOPEKA
THROUGH CONCORDIA KS...MCCOOK AND SIDNEY NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONCENTRATED FROM NEAR PHILLIPSBURG KS TO
MCCOOK AND NORTH PLATTE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTAINED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR OBSERVED AT
MCCOOK AND 1.25 INCHES NORTH PLATTE. SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS
RECENTLY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NCTRL NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN UTAH WILL MOVE INTO NWRN CO AND SCTRL WY BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. A RESPONSE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN
IN ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SCTRL NEBR. SURFACE BASED CAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO
AOA 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A
VEERING WIND PROFILE AND DEEP LAYER SHER TO AROUND
25KTS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF AN
OGALLALA THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. FURTHER NORTH...CONCERN WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WARM RAIN PROCESSES SHOWN BY A TALL SKINNY
CAPE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PROXIMITY OF HIGHEST POPS. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS AT SOME PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY. THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EAST OF AINSWORTH THROUGH ARTHUR AND IMPERIAL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2
INCHES/LOCALLY 3. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AND POPS WILL LOWER TO 30
TO 50 PERCENT WEST OF HWY 83 AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. PACIFIC MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH SOME GULF
MOISTURE TO KEEP PWATS DECENT AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES IN THE EAST. BEST MOISTURE
GETS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS A SFC LOW LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN NEB.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST ALONG THE
NEB/KS BORDER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING DECREASING
CLOUDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW RANGING FROM SRN NEB...EC SOLUTION...TO CENTRAL
KS...GFS SOLUTION...OR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE FURTHER SOUTH
THE LOW THE FASTER THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PAC NW. INBETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE SOME SUBTLE RIDGING AND MORE SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PUSH HIGHS ABOVE 80.

LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO
OR BELOW 80. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN BETTER
COVERAGE AND FORECAST CONTINUES CHANCE POPS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
DURING THE DAY AND KEPT POPS IN THE SLGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TEMPORARILY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF KLBF AND KVTN BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS






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