Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 210526 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. RIDGE FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.  WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR PROVIDING FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE REGION.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE BIAS CORRECTED
DATA AND THE 12Z ECM WHICH INDICATES LOWS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
OF THE LOWER 40S...GIVEN THE 1025 MB CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER YET.  FOR SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS
FROM THE WEST.  A NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...SO DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...THE WEAK CAA
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
HIGHS OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. SUNDAY
NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
STRONG WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 50 WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 70S. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 40+
KTS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD
SHEAR. SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY TRANSITION TO A
MORE RAINSHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDER SCENARIO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
THE NEGATIVE TILT AND STRONG LIFT AND LLJ HAVE CONTINUED ALL
THUNDER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 80S WEST AND 70S EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST. GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR FG/BR
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE TEMPERATURES WERE TO GET INTO THE
LOWER 40S...PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING
AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (BBW...LBF...OGA...MHN AND
TIF. CURRENT INDICATIONS...CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE
AREA...ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE IN
THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...NEAR THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER (ONL...
ANW AND VTN) TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO AROUND 40. FOR FOG TO FORM IN
THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES WOULD PROBABLY NEED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S. SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS IN
FG/BR...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR VTN OR
LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC






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