Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 142329
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS DOWN INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND STRONG RIDGING OVER
BOTH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A COLD AIRMASS CONTINUED TO BE IN PLACE
LOCALLY AS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE READING FROM -1C TO -5C
ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA AS OF 20Z. EVEN WITH MAXIMUM WARMING...THIS
COLD AIRMASS ONLY HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THIS COLD AIR ALOFT LED TO WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF HIGH 700MB MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THIS LAYER DID ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CUMULUS FIELD WHICH SPANNED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
PROHIBITED THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE IN MANY AREAS. WHERE
THE SNOW DID REACH THE GROUND...DID SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 MILES. ALSO...DUE TO THE DRY AIR...THE WET
BULB TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS COMPLETELY BELOW 0C...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS AND WILL FALL IS SNOW REGARDLESS OF
TEMPERATURES BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RIDGING TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE COLD. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
WOULD SUGGEST LOWS DOWN IN THIS RANGE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MELTING IS EXPECTED OF THE SNOW FROM YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE WILL
REMAIN SOME SNOW COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. SO MADE AN
ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT SNOWCOVER...FORECASTING COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALOFT /850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE 8C TO 12C RANGE BY 00Z/. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...SO
LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S. COULD ARGUE THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD NEAR 70...BUT WITH SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE IMPACT STILL OF SNOW COVER AND A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL OUTPUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY. BUT...THINKING THE WARMER SIDE IS THE WAY TO GO SO TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS REGION. INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO NRN
SHERIDAN/NW CHERRY COUNTY AFTER 06Z JUST BEHIND H7 NRN PLAINS
THROUGH. LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE MID 30S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE REMAINING FA PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS
FCST HIGHS WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST. ALSO
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND CONFINED TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MATURE ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND FAR SERN NEBR.
PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LOWER
40S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. INSTEAD INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES...FAVORING A SLOWER TIMING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
OTHERWISE...A DAILY WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY AND ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH MUCH MILDER AIR RETURNING
TO THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FRIDAY...60S
SATURDAY...NEAR 70 SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT UNDER 6 KTS.
ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KTS. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 19Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB






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