Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 260845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

At 08z...Surface high pressure was centered from eastern Nebraska
into northwest Iowa with low pressure extending from central
Wyoming into southern North Dakota.

Most of the shower or thunderstorm activity was moving east across
southeast Montana.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Today...An organized disturbance in southeast Wyoming will be the
main weather feature for thunderstorm development late this
afternoon in western Nebraska. The atmosphere will become highly
unstable by 21z today, with 0-3km mucapes ranging up to 5000 j/kg
west of highway 83. Deep layer shear also more than adequate at
around 40 kts. The main area of development should be from the Black
Hills across northeast South Dakota, with a trailing line of
development along the surface trough through the panhandle into
northeast Colorado. Added a mention for severe thunderstorms in
Sheridan into northwest Cherry county late this afternoon. Strong
heating this afternoon with highs reaching 90 to 95 and dewpoints
holding in the low to mid 60s through the day. South to southeast
winds to increase to 15 to 25 mph this afternoon across north
central Nebraska.

For tonight...Favored the NAM model with its solution of discrete
storms evolving into an MCS propagating from western portions of
north central Nebraska into central Nebraska overnight. Hail, with
strong winds along the leading edge of the storms is likely to
occur. Heavy rainfall with frequent, intense lightning is also
possible. Introduced mention for severe storms most of north central
Nebraska this evening which coincides with the highest pops of 50 to
70 percent. While the main cluster of storms should begin to exit
the area by around 09z, chances for thunderstorms will continue for
the remainder of the night as several weak impulses move east-
southeast within a moist and buoyant atmosphere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Another potentially active day is in store for Wednesday as mid-
level disturbances continue to impact central Nebraska. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible most of Wednesday, with the greatest
chance in the late afternoon/early evening hours. At this time, the
severe potential is low, however, with the SPC outlook in Marginal,
severe weather cannot be entirely ruled out. High temperatures begin
to fall on Wednesday as well, with highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday starts off dry, however, rain showers and thunderstorms
return by afternoon again as a cold front pushes southward across
Nebraska. Storms on Thursday have the potential to become severe as
forcing from the front combined with plenty of low-level moisture
will help storms to develop. Showers are expected to continue into
Friday as the front slowly pulls southeastward. Temperatures
continue to drop on Thursday with highs only forecasted in the low
to mid-80s. Similar temperatures are forecasted for Friday behind
the cold front.

Warmer temperatures and dry conditions return across the region for
next weekend. Highs in the upper 80s on Saturday and low 90s on
Sunday. Weak upper level ridging across the Rocky Mountain region on
Saturday will allow drier weather to return for Saturday. This ridge
will gradually amplify across the central US by Sunday and Sunday
night keeping the forecast dry through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail for much of western
and north central NE through at least 00Z. Thereafter, lies
uncertainty as conditions may deteriorate locally across portions
of the forecast area and this could be attributable to
isolated/scattered thunderstorms. Wherein, confidence is growing
for organized thunderstorms. Best chances are for thunderstorms
beginning sometime mid to late afternoon then persisting into
tomorrow night. However, there is still uncertainty in timing,
location, and coverage. As such, main concerns are thunderstorm
potential in that portion of the TAF package. Currently, skies
are mostly clear, though high clouds are present across portions
of the forecast area.

Currently, increased chances along and north of a line from
Antioch to Halsey to Oneill tomorrow before 00Z. Wherein, the best
chances will be near the SD border early on as we approach 00Z.
Thereafter, chances will increase across the rest of the forecast
area. Enough confidence though based on model guidance and
environment to place Prob30 in KVTN and KLBF TAF.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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