Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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583
FXUS63 KLBF 161739
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

At 08z...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued west of a
line from Ogallala through Crookston. A few recent strong to locally
severe storms have occurred. Stratus has also developed across most
of western Nebraska behind a cold front. Northeast winds continued to
gust to round 25 mph across southeastern areas as cooler air pushed
into the region. Some snow even falling across parts of southwest
Montana, with temperatures across Montana and Wyoming in the 30s to
low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

An upper trough from Montana through northwest Colorado will lift
quickly northeast today into the Dakotas. There will remain a chance
for showers and thunderstorms across central and North central
Nebraska until 15z, then a slight chance for showers ending in the
north central by early afternoon. Stratus will be widespread to
begin this morning, then clearing skies from south to north this
afternoon. With 850mb temperatures as cool as 7 to 10C, highs today
will be around 15 degrees below normal across the north central from
the upper 50s to lower 60s, and near 10 degrees below normal in the
southwest from 65 to 70 degrees. A north to northeast winds 10 to 20
mph through the day.

Surface high pressure will build over western Nebraska tonight, with
mainly clear skies across the north central overnight. With lows
from 35 to 37 across northern Sheridan and northwest Cherry county,
patchy frost is possible. Otherwise lows will range from the upper
30s to lower 40s, except mid 40s far southwest areas, where mid
clouds will thicken after midnight, along with a slight chance for
showers. Confidence not high than any showers will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

High pressure and dry weather will be brief during the day on Sunday.
Cooler temperatures will also continue. Highs are expected to be
in the low 70s across the forecast area which is below normal for
this time of year. The next chance of rain arrives on Sunday night
and early Monday morning. At this time, the best locations for
rain will be across the south (south of highway 2). At this time,
storms are not expected to be severe.

Dry weather returns for most of next week with warming temperatures.
North central Nebraska is expected to see highs in the 80s for
Monday and Tuesday, before temperatures decrease slightly into the
mid 70s to low 80s for the remainder of the week. A few isolated
chances for rain return on Wednesday night, but confidence is too
low to include anything more than a brief mention in the forecast at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Low clouds hanging tough in cold air advection with a mid level
clouds and a few showers developing across the Panhandle in mid
level neg EPV which matches well with SPC mesoanalysis 2-6km lapse
rates. The forcing originates in a weak area of mid level
frontogenesis within right entrance region of upper jet. Not a
great deal of moisture so coverage is limited and much may not be
reaching the ground.

Models have struggled some with wanting to clear out low level
moisture the last couple of days so tried to lean a little
pessimistic with forecast as confidence in clearing is low.
Showers also not expected to last too long as mid level
frontogenesis weakens this afternoon. Clearing will eventually
overspread the area by late afternoon however will be short lived
in the south as a mid level warm air advection pattern develops
as upper height rises moves over the central Rockies. Mid level
cloudiness will increase alnog with isolated showers in southwest
NE overnight. At this point coverage will be limited so have not
included any precip mention for KLBF nor KVTN, but have increased
mid level cloud cover. short range model disagree on amount of low
level moisture Sunday morning with NAM more pessimistic but have
sided more with just mid level clouds at this point.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Stoppkotte



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