Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 202021
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Primary forecast concern over over the next 24 hours will be cloud
cover...which will once again impact temperatures...especially high
temperatures on Saturday.

The upper level low over Northern California...will begin to slowly
translate to the northeast into portions of Northern Idaho and
Western Montana over the next 24 hours. Further to the east across
the Northern and Central Plains...upper level ridging will also
begin to be shunted off to the east...in response to the advancing
system out of Northern California. Southerly to southeasterly low
level winds...will aid in further low level moisture transport into
Western and North Central Nebraska. This increase in low level
moisture...will once again yield another day of stratus...and
possibly light drizzle across much of the region during the morning
hours on Saturday. The potential for light drizzle is represented
well in both NAM and GFS Bufkit sounds...so have retained the
mention from prior forecast. The aforementioned stratus deck will
also help to keep high temperatures well below normal
tomorrow...with current forecast highs only expected to reach the
mid-60s to low 70s...with tomorrows low 70s possibly being a stretch
given that today`s (Friday`s) stratus has kept temperatures in the
low to mid-60s. Finally...have retained the mention of thunderstorms
for Saturday afternoon...however...have kept the mention as only a
slight chance...as development will depend heavily on the extent of
mixing and cap erosion.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Upper low moves east through the weekend with height rises and
ridge building into the northern plains. Gulf is open and strong
warm air advection and moisture advection into the northern plains
with dew points rising into the lower 60s. isolated thunderstorms
possible Saturday night but fairly strong cap. Cold front will
move into western Nebraska Sunday morning with thunderstorms
developing to the northwest in the am. Front and storms spreading
east through the day. Best dynamics through the afternoon and
early evening from kvtn to klbf and east. Slight risk over all of
western Nebraska through the day on Sunday. Temperatures have been
lowered with stratus ahead of the front. Highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s southwest. Qpfs have been increased and may have to be
ramped up more with above normal pws and slow progression of
front. Boundary stalls out over western Nebraska as upper low
shears out into central Canada. This boundary will be the focus
for thunderstorm development through mid week. Highs around 80
east of the boundary and in the 70s to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The stratus is slowly eroding from west to east across the western
sandhills. The latest guidance indicates partial clearing...but
the return of stratus this evening. Drizzle may be a
concern...with lower ceilings early Saturday...but this is in
question. Will hold off the mention for now...but monitor.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Controlled reservoir releases continue to cause minor to moderate
flooding of the North Platte river. There are no significant changes
to the North Platte river forecasts east of Lisco. The North Platte
river at North Platte will rise to near 6.5 feet this Tuesday as a
result of an additional 500 cfs release from Lake McConaughy.

South Platte river will continue elevated over western Nebraska
but well below flood stage.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Jacobs/Moldan
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Jacobs
HYDROLOGY...Power



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