Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 262328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ABBREVIATED FORECAST DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A LEE THERMAL TROUGH.  THE LATEST VIS
SATELLITE INDICATES A STEADY LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE THERMAL
TROUGH...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS ALREADY NOTED JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTS THE LINE WILL FILL IN AND SPREAD EAST WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE CAPE...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40KTS EAST OVER THE
SANDHILLS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ ARE FORECAST.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AIDED BY A STOUT LLJ AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE LATEST 12Z NAM12 CARRIES THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MID-
MORNING ON MONDAY.  THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CURRENT GFS
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA  AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  A LEE TROUGH
AND/OR STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FAVORABLE SHEAR AND CAPE WOULD PROMOTE
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE CURRENT DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK
FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB NEAR 100 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FRONTIER...LINCOLN...AND HAYES
COUNTIES. ATTM...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT WARM WITH TEMPERATURES...SO
WOULD LIKE A SECOND LOOK OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE IF HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE
FRONT...SO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MOVED POPS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE FA WITH
WESTERN ZONES SEEING DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF MOISTURE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COVERAGE
HOWEVER LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 82 TO 88 TUESDAY...THEN MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
THROUGH MID EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
KLBF TERMINAL...AND AROUND 30 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. CIGS WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AS LOW AS 4000 FT AGL WITH VISBYS AS LOW
AS 2SM. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL LIFT TO 12000 TO 20000
FT AGL WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB


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