Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KLBF 270847
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
MONTANA INTO UTAH. FURTHER EAST...RIDGING WAS PRESENT ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...NORTH TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS
SRN QUEBEC...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT
WV IMAGERY HAS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NERN MONTANA WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN UTAH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A NICE
AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS DEVELOPED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN COLORADO...INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A NICE AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE
SWRN PANHANDLE INTO CHERRY COUNTY...AND AS OF 230 AM CDT...WAS JUST
WEST OF KVTN. AT THE SURFACE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED
THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM CDT...AND
EXTENDED FROM NERN NEBRASKA INTO NWRN KS. SKIES AS OF 3 AM
CDT...RANGED FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA...TO
CLOUDY IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 52
AT IMPERIAL...TO 61 AT AINSWORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...THEN LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...ONGOING PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WILL TRANSITION
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAD THIS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL AND ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS
TO POPS AND QPF. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND
NORTHWESTERN CWA. INHERITED FORECAST WAS DRY AND INSERTED POPS IN
THESE AREAS...BASED ON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE MAIN COLD
POOL ALOFT PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST NAM EVEN HAS SOME NEGATIVE LI/S ACROSS NWRN NEBRASKA AT
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL END BY 00Z TUESDAY AS
TEMPS COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
AIR...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...LINGERING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING...COUPLED
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
SOME MID 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA. H850MB TEMPS OF 2C NORTHEAST TO 8C
SOUTHWEST...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MIXING AND FULL
SUNSHINE...SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE REGION /AROUND THE ONEILL
AREA/ WHERE THE NAM MODEL HINTS AT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
H850MB TO H700MB LEVEL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BIT MORE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW THOUGH THINKING MOST OF THOSE
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW
CENTER.

A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED IN OR VERY NEAR THE AREA...WITH THE LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM
WINDS. SKIES WILL ALSO BE CLEAR...AND EXPECT A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING AT NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 20S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS LIKE
RIVER VALLEYS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGING. EXPECTING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH H850MB
TEMPS WARMING ABOUT 8C OVER THOSE OF TUESDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD ALSO HELP IN THE WARM UP...AND 70 DEGREE HIGHS ARE
LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH LOWER 60S NORTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH MAY FINALLY BRING
SOME DECENT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF DROUGHT STRICKEN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN OUR AREA...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. IT DOES LOOK A
BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A LEEWARD SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO HAVE INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE KVTN TAF 09Z-14Z. A SECONDARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 32015G25KT AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.