Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Surface low pressure will deepen to about 991MB across southwest
South Dakota this morning in response to a shortwave aloft
approaching the Dakotas. The low will track across southern South
Dakota this afternoon - with a strong Pacific cold front racing
southeast across western and north central Nebraska. Rapid pressure
rises will occur behind the front, with strong winds aloft easily
mixing to the surface. Area soundings support sustained winds near
30 KTS across portions of the Sandhills and northwest Nebraska this
afternoon, with gusts of 45 KTS (or over 50 MPH) possible. In
addition to the very strong winds, dry air will quickly mix east
with a nearly straight west downslope rapidly drying wind. Have
expanded the Red Flag Warning to include all of the area due to the
expected amount of drying and strong winds. Otherwise warm air aloft
will quickly mix to the surface, and temperatures should rapidly
rise into the lower and mid 80s along and ahead of the front. A
little cooler across northwest Nebraska, but still anticipate mid
70s or so behind the front.

Winds will slowly decouple tonight, but models indicate a period of
stronger winds, gusting over 30 MPH, will last into the evening
hours across southwest Nebraska. This appears to be in a nose of
stronger pressure rises that will continue through early this
evening. Otherwise temperatures will quickly fall due to the dry air
in place. Opted to not go with the coldest guidance however, as some
mixing continues through the night. Lows most areas will drop into
the 30s, but north central Nebraska will remain in the lower to mid

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Few changes were made to the going forecast. An upper level trough
begins to dig across the Rocky Mountains on Tuesday. Cooler air
begins to filter into the region ahead of the approaching trough.
Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s. As the upper level
trough digs deeper across the Plains on Wednesday, cooler air will
continue to move into the area. 850 mb temperatures will drop into
the 5-10 C range resulting in surface temperatures to drop into the
upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday. There will also be the chance of
some rain showers starting late Tuesday night and lasting through
Wednesday. Rain will move out of the forecast area by 7pm Wednesday.
Rain is expected to remain light with only around a tenth of an inch
of new rainfall expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening. Have removed the freezing rain mention across the northwest
counties as boundary layer temperatures are trending towards a
warmer solution with temperatures remaining above freezing.

Strong upper level ridge builds across the western US on Thursday
allowing strong surface high pressure to build across the central
Plains. Dry and quiet conditions will prevail for the remainder of
the week and into the weekend. Expect gradual warming temperature
trend into the weekend as temperatures rise from the low 60s on
Thursday to the low 70s by Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Main aviation concerns will be winds Monday afternoon over western
Nebraska. Surface winds will be out of the southwest to west and
increasing through the day. Strongest winds will occur through the
afternoon north of a line from kbbw to koga with west winds
sustained at 25kts and gusting to 35kts.


Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A strong Pacific cold front will race southeast across western and
north central Nebraska today. Strong west winds will usher very dry
air through all of the area. As temperatures rise into the mid 70s
to mid 80s, humidity will fall into the 17 to 23 percent range, with
the lowest values across north central through southwest Nebraska.
Wind gusts over 45 mph are likely, especially across north central
Nebraska, and have a red flag warning for all fire weather zones.


Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.



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