Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 110523 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1123 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A classic Alberta Clipper system will dive southeast across the
central and northern plains tonight into Monday. The surface low and
associated steadier snow will track southeast across Minnesota to
northern Illinois. Meanwhile the PV anomaly and cold pool aloft will
dive south across the Dakotas into Nebraska.

Strong winds are the main concern across our area on Monday, with
perhaps a few snow showers due to the cold air aloft. NAM and RAP
500 meter wind speeds indicate the potential for sustained speeds
around 30 mph during the late morning into the afternoon hours. RAP
is suggesting gusts could approach high wind warning criteria, and
this is not out of the realm of possibility with the PV anomaly
aiding in vertically mixing the stronger winds aloft to the surface.
Of note, the wind speed at 700mb is near 80 kts.

High temperatures will likely be reached late morning across
northern Nebraska, in the lower to mid 40s, then slowly fall as CAA
develops during the afternoon hours. Lower 50s are expected across
the sunnier areas across southwest Nebraska. In addition CAA will be
weaker in the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Rain or snow chances are confined to Friday night and Saturday and
this is an artifact of last night`s model runs. POPs are limited to
20-30 percent for this forecast. There models were showing what
appears a frontal band of snow will move in from the west across
Nwrn and Ncntl Neb. That snow band has vanished in this mornings
model runs.

Another fairly strong cold front moves through Wednesday but, at
this time, it would appear to be weaker than the front Monday. 45-
65kt winds are indicated by all models in the 850-700mb layer but
500m AGL winds increase to 25-30 kt or 25-30 mph at the sfc. The
forecast uses consensus model output statistics for winds 20-25 mph.
Later forecasts will likely increase speeds if the strong winds
aloft continue to be shown by the models.

The temperature forecast uses the model blend plus the previous
forecast plus bias corrected guidance for highs in the 40s and 50s.
Bias correction tended to raise high temperatures a couple of
degrees and lower mins a couple of degrees.

None of the models indicate any kind of direct arctic air moving
into ncntl and wrn Neb. Thursday will be the coolest day; after the
cold front Wednesday, highs rise into the lower 40s in most areas
and this is still above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A cold front will move across western Nebraska early Monday
morning with winds being the main concern for aviation. Strongest
northwest winds will begin between KVTN and KONL along with some
light rain and snow mixed Monday morning. Strong northwest winds
will spread over all of western Nebraska through the day on


Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The best guess on temperatures, wind and relative humidity across
the Frenchman basin Monday gives humidity less than 20 percent for
two hours. Given the strong winds forecast Monday, 30-45 mph, a 20
percent criteria for Red Flag conditions can be used, but still the
3 hour criteria isn`t reached. So a brief period of critical fire
danger is expected Monday afternoon which will be handled using the
traditional special statement. It is still possible later forecasts
could necessitate a Red Flag warning. The rest of Western and North
Central Nebraska is expected to experience strong winds but higher
relative humidity.

Frenchman basin and perhaps other parts of Southwest Nebraska will
continue to experience low humidity Tuesday and Friday. Light winds
are expected those days.




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