Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221122 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Arctic drape has formed across Wrn Neb this morning and the models
keep this moist air west today and then move it east tonight into
Ncntl Neb. The result would be overcast skies late tonight. The SREF
was the model of choice for the stratus.

The RAP and NAM suggest the richer moisture would extend to at least
800mb...deeper in the NAM...and this would be sufficient for drizzle
or light showers. The forecast uses showers and coverage is isolated
to scattered.

Otherwise the rain and sleet showers underway should exit the Ncntl
Nebraska this morning. The upslope winds across Wrn Neb become south
this morning and the models mix out the morning stratus across Wrn
Nebraska. A break forms in the midlevel cloudiness this morning
which fills back in this afternoon and tonight.

Blended guidance and short range model data produces highs in the
50s to lower 60s with lows tonight in the 40s as moisture increases
with a strengthening low level jet.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Dry conditions will be short-lived on Thursday morning before a
developing low pressure system moves off the front ranges and tracks
across the central US. Despite increasing clouds on Thursday, high
temperatures will rise into the 70s.

The going forecast remains on track for the system moving into the
region on Thursday evening. The best chance for precipitation will
be after 6pm. This system not only has the potential to bring
heavier rain to the region but also the chance for thunderstorms.
Severe potential looks moderate. Nearly 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 60-80
knots of shear will be present across southwest Nebraska by late
afternoon. These parameters combined with a dryline and the
developing low to the west will make the environment favorable for
stronger thunderstorms. While there will be a short window for
severe development, a stronger storm cannot be entirely ruled out.
The greatest threat with thunderstorms on Thursday night will be
large hail. As the evening progresses, severe weather potential
diminishes and the deepening low becomes mainly a heavy rain event
for north central Nebraska through Saturday morning. A half to three
quarters of an inch are possible across much of the forecast area,
with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms develop. Rain
finally pushes east of the region by Saturday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures are in store for Friday and into the weekend. Friday
highs will barely reach 50 degrees, whereas Saturday and Sunday will
rise into the low to upper 50s.

An isolated chance of some rain and snow is possible Sunday night
across the eastern Panhandle. Otherwise, the next chance of
precipitation arrives next Tuesday and Wednesday. 850 mb
temperatures in the 0-5 degree C range will keep the majority of the
precipitation as all rain. Temperatures rise into the upper 50s and
low 60s on Monday before returning to the mid-50s for Tuesday and


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

The bank of MVFR cigs across Wrn Neb moves east this morning and
mixes out to VFR. MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to redevelop east of
highway 83 around 03z-06z tonight. The SREF then shows these
clouds buiding west to KLBF-KTIF by 12z Thursday morning. Local
LIFR in fog/VLCIGS is indicated in the model across the Cntl
Sandhills by 12z Thursday.




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