Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 302328 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

ASOS HAS IDENTIFIED A THIN SMOKE LAYER ACROSS WRN NEB FROM KVTN
TO KIML. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC



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