Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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411
FXUS63 KLBF 100946
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
346 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A highly amplified H5 pattern continued across the CONUS and
Canada tonight. High pressure was anchored over northern
California with a ridge extending north into western Alaska. Low
pressure was situated over Hudson Bay with a trough extending
south into the Gulf of Mexico. Numerous shortwaves were present
within this trough: Most notably over the Ohio Valley, northern
Ontario and north central Canada. Northwesterly flow extended from
the Northern Rockies into the Ozarks tonight. At the surface: Low
pressure was present over northern Minnesota with a warm front
extending sse into sern Nebraska. Across western and north central
Nebraska, westerly winds were present across the area with mostly
clear skies. Temperatures as of 3 AM CST ranged from 30 at North
Platte to 44 at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Warm temperatures are expected today across the forecast area
with H85 temps ranging from 6C in the northeast to around 10C in
the southwest. Highs will reach the lower 60s this afternoon with
some mid 50s in the northeast. Minimum relative humidity this
afternoon will fall off to 12 to 17 percent west of a line from
Valentine to Broken Bow. Winds will peak late morning, then relax
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. Gust
potential across swrn Nebraska peaks around 20 to 25 MPH late
morning in the far southwest and relaxes into the afternoon hours.
That being said, am not anticipating a red flag warning for this
afternoon. However, with extreme to near critical fire weather
conditions in the west later today, will hit this hard in the HWO.
A clipper system will dive south into Minnesota tonight, forcing
a cold front through the forecast area. Windy conditions will
develop overnight, especially across the eastern forecast area.
Lows will be mild tonight with readings coolest in the west, where
winds will be lighter. Readings will range from the upper 20s in
the west to lower 30s in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Amplified upper ridging will remain over the western U.S. through
the work week.  This will keep the Central Plains in fast northerly
flow that will be primarily dry.  Under mostly clear skies through
much of the extended, temperatures are forecast to be largely above
seasonal norms. The northernly flow will usher periodic fronts
across the plains with gusty conditions expected. Monday, a front
arrives early in the morning. Enhanced mixing behind the front and
a solid pressure gradient will push gusts at or near 45 mph for
the Sandhills and north central Nebraska by early afternoon. The
recent dry conditions coupled with the gusty winds are a concern
in event a range fire starts. At this point, enough CAA will allow
RH values to remain well above critical thresholds for most
locations, the one area of concern/exception is far southwest
Nebraska /NEZ-210/. Another front is scheduled for Wednesday with
the next Saturday but outside of the possibility of light
precipitation along the SDAK border Saturday, those fronts will be
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Low level wind shear will be main concern for aviation across
western Nebraska. As winds at the surface decouple and become
light winds at 2kft AGL will continue at 40 to 50kts out of the
north. Winds will increase across the surface after 12z on the
10th. Skies will be mostly clear with VFR cigs.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Power



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