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000
FXUS63 KLBF 091128 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC