652
FXUS63 KLBF 111732
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A threat for strong to briefly severe storms across southwest
  and central Nebraska, as well as eastern portions of north
  central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Locally
  heavy rain also possible across the southeast panhandle and
  southwest Nebraska this evening.

- Highs fall back into the low 80s Saturday with dry conditions,
  before a quick warmup into the low 90s expected by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A weak front moved through western Nebraska early this morning.
Highs today will range from 75 at Gordon, where the cold front
will move in earlier, to the upper 80s to near 90 in the
southwest. An upper trough will move through the Northern
Plains today and across Nebraska tonight. This will drive a cold
front into the northwest Sandhills later this afternoon and
through the remainder of the forecast area by midnight. A
disturbance will cross southeast Wyoming and north central
Colorado late afternoon and track southeast across the southern
panhandle and southwest Nebraska this evening into the early
morning hours. The latest model guidance supports likely POPs
across this area with 30-35KT of deep layer shear. PWATs will
increase to 1.25 to 1.33 inches ahead of the advancing cold
front. The GFS, NAM and the majority of the CAMs show scattered
storms developing into a large custer or two of storms this
evening from the southeast panhandle across southwest Nebraska.
A Marginal Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC south of a
line from Alliance through Valentine. Hail to 1 inch diameter
and locally strong to briefly severe wind gusts will be possible
until mid evening, transitioning to more of a wind and locally
heavy rain threat mid evening through midnight. The
precipitation will exit southern areas late tonight. A marginal
risk for excessive rainfall extends across this area as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Dry conditions are forecast Saturday through Monday. Sunny skies
Saturday with light and variable winds as surface high pressure
moves across the region. Highs will fall back into the low 80s.
An upper ridge builds in and flattens out Sunday into Monday
with highs returning to 90 to 95. Storm chances return by Monday
evening across the west and northwest, with higher chances by
Tuesday night as a surface front briefly stalls across northern
Kansas. Wednesday is expected to be much cooler from 70 to 75
behind the cold front with considerable cloudiness and chances
for showers and a few storms. Continued cool Thursday, with just
a slight chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Cumulus development across northern Nebraska this afternoon
could lead to brief periods of MVFR CIGs. In addition, wildfire
smoke could also lead to brief MVFR visibilities for a couple of
hours this afternoon for northern Nebraska terminals.

By this evening, thunderstorms will increase in coverage across
the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, leading to brief MVFR
visibilities and gusty, erratic winds as they quickly move east
across the area. These storms will exit after Midnight CDT,
with some threat for low stratus development in their wake for
southwest Nebraska terminals.

Winds remain gusty from the north this afternoon, with gusts of
20 to 30kts expected. Winds then become light tonight, at less
than 5kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown