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000
FXUS63 KLBF 290712 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
212 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND ADD THUNDER.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEPARODY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC