Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280836
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. HAVE EXPANDED POPS ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY FROM THE HILLS TO
NORTHEAST COLORADO ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS HAVE
NOT MADE A PUSH OFF OF THE AXIS WITHOUT FALLING APART. SOME PATCHY
STRATUS AROUND GOODLAND THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT IT WILL
CONGEAL INTO A WIDE SPREAD EVENT THIS MORNING WITH 3 AND 4 DEGREE
DEW POINT SPREADS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. WILL AGAIN CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEST. BOUNDARY FROM EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING AND HAVE
RETAINED SOME CHANCE POPS BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS GOING
TO OCCUR. THROUGH THE DAY THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. TROUGH WILL BE FOCUS FRO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS
AFTER 18Z AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE MU
CAPE 850MB-700MB VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS RISING
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
TRANSITION FROM TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS/QPF FOR FRIDAY. SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO KS/EASTERN NEB BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND A
LARGE BUT RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WEAK PV ANOMALIES MOVES OVERHEAD. FOLDED THETA-E FIELDS IN CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SO INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
RAIN SHOWERS. EC HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE
PREVIOUS 72 HOURS IN REGARDS TO PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF AND WAS USED
AS THE PRIMARY MODEL FOR THE FRIDAY FORECAST. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS AOA 1 INCH...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEFLECTING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY. POPS END FRIDAY NIGHT
AS AN AREA OF COOL/DRY CANADIAN HIGH MOVES SOUTH.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. MID
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS TO START THE MONTH OF JUNE...AND DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL PROMOTE HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...AND IT MAY FEEL MUGGY AT TIMES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IT IS
TOO DISTANT IN THE FORECAST TO PINPOINT THE THREAT WITH ANY HIGH
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE RAP AND NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRATUS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SWRN NEB AROUND 06Z WHICH WOULD SPREAD NORTH TO KLBF AND
KVTN. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY 09Z. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BELOW 700MB...THESE CLOUDS WOULD BE SLOW TO
MIX OUT THURSDAY MORNING. THUS VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED 18Z-20Z.

TSTM CHANCES THURSDAY SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AROUND
21Z WHICH SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO NCNTL NEB THURSDAY EVENING.

LASTLY...STORM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AT 04Z.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND BECOME ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
SOME RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED
SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE
HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...POWER






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