Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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280
FXUS63 KLBF 280817
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

H5 analysis has a trough of low pressure over the western CONUS
with the base of the trough located near the far northwestern
corner of Arizona. A secondary wave was noted over the lower Ohio
valley with a low amplitude ridge located between this feature and
the trough over the western CONUS. In advance of the western
trough, light rain showers had developed overnight and were
lifting across the Nebraska panhandle from northeastern Colorado.
Some showers had begun to move into southwestern Nebraska and as
of 3 AM CDT, had remained mainly aloft. Under mostly cloudy skies,
overnight readings were generally in the lower to middle 40s
across western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Today and tonight:  Precipitation chances will be the
main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours. The upper level
trough currently located over the swrn CONUS, will migrate east
across Arizona into New Mexico through 12z Wednesday. Mid level warm
air advection will continue to lift northeast of the trough today
into tonight. In addition, a nice area of isentropic lift was noted
at the 300K surface with the latest NAM12 soln across southwestern
into central Nebraska. This favorable lift will lead to the
development of showers later this morning across southwestern
Nebraska as top down saturation commences. This activity will slowly
spread northeast today, impacting the northeastern forecast area
this evening. Looking at the latest NAM12, HRRR and WARW, decided to
slow down the onset of rainfall today. This led to mainly dry
conditions in the northeastern forecast area through this afternoon.
By tonight, a broad shield of precipitation will lift north of the
main upper level low, impacting the entire forecast area overnight.
The inherited forecast had this handled well and no changes were
made to tonight`s precipitation forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A more active pattern begins to transition for the rest of the
week bringing several chances for precipitation.

An upper level trough will continue to translate southeast across
the central plains brining the first chance of precipitation. The
main precipitation type will be rain as temperatures will be in the
40s and 50s...however have left a chance of rain/snow mix across the
far northwest in the morning hours as temperatures will be in the
30s. The rain will push out of the area by overnight Wednesday.

Rain chances return on Saturday as an upper level low digs across
the four corners region and continue to move south and east. The
greatest chance for rain will be across the southern part of the
county warning area.

As for temperatures through the week, they will remain mild through
the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s. Then the 60s return on
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Clouds will increase from the west tonight with stratus developing
generally after midnight. Ceilings will lower into IFR categories
with MVFR visibilities as light rain developS over western Nebraska
through the early morning hours and slowly moves east.
Widespread light to moderate rain will continue over most of western
Nebraska through the day on Tuesday and continue Tuesday night.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Power



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