Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 040942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
342 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

H5 hand analysis for tonight had a area of high pressure over the
eastern Pacific and a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. East of
these features, short wave troughs were located over eastern South
Dakota into northeastern Colorado as well as portions of northern
Mexico. Downstream of these features west southwesterly flow
extended from Texas and Oklahoma into the Ohio valley and mid
Atlantic states. Decent height rises of 50 to 100 meters were
noted over western Alaska this evening in response to a developing
ridge over the Aleutians and Bering Sea. The height rises will
eventually force the closed low over the Gulf of Alaska southeast
into the western CONUS over the next 36 to 48 hours. In the
meantime, seasonal conditions were present across western and
north central Nebraska tonight. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy
across western and north central Nebraska with the most prevalent
cloud cover being in the eastern forecast area. Temperatures as of
3 AM CST ranged from 21 at Ogallala to 31 at O`Neill.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Temperatures will be the main forecast challenge today and
tonight. For today, skies will gradually clear as the shortwave
trough of low pressure pushes east into Missouri and Iowa. H85
temps this afternoon will reach 0 to 4C across the forecast area
from northeast to southwest. With westerly winds expected, we
should mix this down resulting in highs in the mid 40s to around

For tonight, an upper level trough of low pressure will begin to
drop south into the northern Rockies of Montana. This will force a
cold front into North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota by 12z
Monday. South of the front, mid level cloudiness will increase
tonight as well as southwesterly and westerly winds. This will
lead to fairly mild lows tonight with lows in the upper 20s to
around 30. Did go lower on lows in the southwest, however, as
clouds will arrive overnight and winds are expected to be lighter.
In these areas, we should see lows in the lower to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Models remain consistent for high confidence that much colder air
will arrive through midweek. The forecast challenge will be how
cold temperatures will go, wind chills and snow fall coverage amounts
Tuesday night into Wednesday and again Friday night into Saturday.

Monday a disturbance moves east to drive a cold front southeast
by evening. Moisture will be limited where clouds will increase
but any chance of precip to lag well behind the front. A range in
temperatures will occur as the front drops southeast with middle
30s in the northwest sandhills and ranging into the lower 50s
southwest. Northwest winds increase as the front moves southeast
with breezy conditions in the west by afternoon.

Tuesday through Saturday the artic high ridges southeast and
eventually builds east over the weekend. As the arctic high ridges
southeast reinforcing pushes of artic air through midweek will
drive daytime temperatures into the teens to 20s, while overnight
lows drop into the single digits to below zero.

The cold temperatures and winds will create subzero wind chills
Wednesday night into Thursday morning that could approach 20 below
zero before winds drop off.

Differences remain in timing of the frontal passage that will
influence strength of winds and areal coverage for snow fall. As
moisture deepens from top down the best chance for snow remains
across the Neb. panhandle and southwest Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations to be seen remain on the
light side yet as the surface low develops over southeast Colorado
portions of Chase, Perkins, Hayes and southwest Lincoln counties
could see snowfall totals from 1 to 3 inches.

Friday into Saturday the surface ridge of high pressure builds
east that will allow temperatures to trend upwards, yet remaining
below normals for early December.

December normal highs and lows include:

Location    High Low
North Platte 40   14
Valentine    38   13


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

IFR ceilings continue east of a MCK to BBW line ahead of a surface
trough of low pressure. To the west, across much of western
Nebraska, including KLBF and KVTN, VFR conditions with scattered
to broken highs clouds were occurring. Low clouds near few003
recently reported at KLBF should exit the area by around 06z.
Surface winds will mainly range southwest below 10kts. By around
03z/5th through the end of the TAF period, low level wind shear is
forecast at KLBF and KVTN.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.