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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280606 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER