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000
FXUS63 KLBF 061132 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THIS MODEL. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREAS...MAINLY AFFECTING NRN NEB.
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB AND NEARLY FULL SUN WOULD
SUPPORT MIXING TO 700 MB AS WAS THE CASE THURSDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH ERN SD LATE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. THE THERMAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON . HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. DO EXPECT THE NW TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS MOST AREAS
BECOME SNOW FREE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS ALOFT FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES
BRIEFLY...THEN REBOUND QUICKLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT HIGHS...ALTHOUGH THE
REBOUNDING OF TEMPS MAY BE FAST ENOUGH TO RETURN TEMPS TO MATCH
SATURDAY HIGHS. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS AT THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND A TREND UPWARD IS POSSIBLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS MOVES ON SHORE WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM GETS
PUSH NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
TEENS C FOR MIDWEEK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE. LATELY WHEN WE HAVE SEEN THESE
WARM UPS...GUIDANCE UNDERESTIMATES THE HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THUS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR
FAVORED WARM AREAS TO REACH OR SURPASS 70. RECORDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE NOW AROUND 80...SO LOWER TO MID 70S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE NORM FOR WARM UPS LIKE THIS.

AS TEMPS WARM...WILL HAVE TO BEGIN TO MONITOR CLOSER FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS FAIRLY DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCT-BKN100-120 CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FALLS TO 20 PERCENT
OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOUP RIVER BASINS THIS AFTN FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.
WIND GUSTS IN ALL MODELS ARE BELOW 25 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A SURGE
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE
AFTN...21Z. IF THESE WINDS DEVELOP SOONER AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST
THEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED IN THE LOUP RIVERS BASINS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC