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000
FXUS63 KLBF 081123 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
522 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

GOOD CONSENSUS WITH SHORT TERM MODELS TODAY AND WILL USE A BLEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. STRATUS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS MAY SLOW WARM UP THERE TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING AND HELP TO MIX
STRATUS OUT. UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE UPPER TROUGH AND
COLDER AIR ALOFT EAST TODAY AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -5C
AT 12Z INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TO +5C. SOME SNOW YESTERDAY BUT
BASICALLY JUST A SKIFF AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE SHOULD MELT QUICKLY
TODAY. HAVE GONE WITH ALL BLENDS SOLUTION AND A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS. SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE OF WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SUNDAY...THEN WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
DIGS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT OF HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX. ALTHOUGH THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BY UP TO 5C ON HOW STRONG THE
INVERSION BETWEEN 800MB AND 850MB IS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE NAM HAS
850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 11C AND 15C...THE ECMWF RANGES FROM 13C
TO 17C. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY ON SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...AND WITH WESTERLY WINDS PROMOTING WARMING
EXPECT DECENT MIXING. THE NAM ONLY MIXES THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT IS
UNDER-DOING THIS. DAYS SIMILAR TO THIS EARLIER THIS YEAR SAW DEEP
MIXING...WHICH LED TO TEMPERATURES ABOVE FORECASTED HIGHS. WENT
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH ENDS UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IF THE DEEPER MIXING SCENARIO PLAYS OUT OTHER CONCERNS WILL COME
ABOUT...MAINLY WITH FIRE WEATHER AS IS DISCUSSED IN FURTHER DETAIL
BELOW IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN MOVES
ON LAND MONDAY...AND WITH THE MEXICO UPPER LOW MOVING EAST INTO
TEXAS/NORTHEAST MEXICO THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WON/T HELP
PROMOTE DEEP MIXING. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO TRY TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPER THAN ON SUNDAY. WITH CONFLICTING
SIGNALS...WENT FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AS IS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON
MONDAY...AND WITH MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...EVEN WITH DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ABOVE VALUES
CRITICAL TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DON/T BELIEVE FIRE WEATHER
WILL BE A THREAT FOR MONDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COOLER AIR SLIGHTLY LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. DID SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION
SLIGHTLY AS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DIDN/T SHOW THE COLUMN
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL 06Z OR LATER MOST PLACES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT WITH THE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLING THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR A SNOW/RAIN MIX.
WITH WARM GROUND FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...AND AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...REALLY DON/T EXPECT MUCH IF ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

AGAIN THIS SYSTEM IS QUICK MOVING...SO THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AGAIN AS THE UPPER LOW TO
THE WEST SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND TRIES TO CUTOFF
FROM THE NORMAL FLOW. THIS WOULD MEAN THE BUILDING OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE AGAIN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO BRING VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO BRING A CONTINUOUS
FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL IF THE
WARMER OR COOLER AIRMASS WILL TAKE OVER...THE FORECAST GOES MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON WARMER OR COOLER.
BUT...THE FORECAST IS DRY BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL STAY OVER CANADA...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN UPPER LOW STAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AND BREAK UP THE CLOUD DECK. OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVER NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS
ON SUNDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE AIRMASS BEING VERY DRY...MODERATE TO DEEP
MIXING WOULD BRING DOWN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE DISTRICTS. LOWERED
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH STILL. WITH THESE
DEWPOINTS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AGAIN...IN THESE DEEP MIXING...DOWNSLOPE WIND SITUATIONS OFTEN
TIMES MODELS WILL BE TOO LOW WITH THE WINDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS GUSTS AROUND 25KTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MANY AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST AT RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AND TRY TO CHECK ON
FUEL STATUS BEFORE GOING FORWARD WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS