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000
FXUS63 KLBF 191740
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RIDGING EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM TEXAS
NORTH TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NORTH WEST OF ABERDEEN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH
HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. FARTHER
EAST...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT AND WERE GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT ONEILL AS OF 3 AM CDT. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 54 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 59 AT
VALENTINE...ONEILL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE
DWINDLING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA...AND TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY...A WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDDAY...STALLING JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. SOME READINGS AROUND 70 WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO BROKEN BOW...TO
ONEILL. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A DECENT
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM NERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME FAR SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE RETAINED. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO...AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONCE
AGAIN...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AM ANTICIPATING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER TO SOUTH OF ONEILL. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS RETURN INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES. ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
STORMS...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
NEGATIVE LI/S AND SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE...HOWEVER MOISTURE
IS MARGINAL AND WEAK SHEAR. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SEVERE...WHICH AGREES WITH SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND
LOWS HOLD IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS. IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE LATE IN
THE NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD LOWS LIKELY IN THE 30S. MODELS TREND
IS FOR MORE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AGREEMENT FOR DEW PTS
IN THE LOWER 30S.

THE LOWER DEW PTS ARE MORE OF A CONCERN WHEN IT COMES TO MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT...WITH GUSTS EARLY IN THE DAY CLOSE TO 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS
REBOUND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH
COMBINE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 30S TO PRODUCE SOME RH VALUES CLOSE
TO 20 PERCENT. NOT REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SOAR INTO THE LOWER
20S C WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY TO SEE A FEW LOW
80S FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO COMBINE WITH THE
WARM SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE A LITTLE INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS...WITH A BIG CONCERN ON MOISTURE RETURN. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER AS IS THE
CASE TODAY...TIMING AND MOISTURE IS BEST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CWA.

SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PUSH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH MODELS KEEP PRECIP NORTHERN AND
EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY EXPECTING BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST CEILINGS IN THE 15000 TO 25000 FOOT RANGE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR KOFK
TO KLXN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EITHER THE KLBF OR KVTN TAF SITES. THE UPPER
LOW IS FORECASTED TO PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY...AND
CURRENTLY EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST. IF THE LOW
WOULD HAPPEN TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST...THEN SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR