Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 141739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1139 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Near term models in good agreement which water vapor imagery
supports today. Stronger wave dropping south over the northern
plains today. Areas of light snow over southwest South Dakota early
this morning will move south into northwest Nebraska this morning.
Better chances north this morning through the noon hour. An inch or
less of accumulation expected. Temperatures will rise through the
afternoon with a light mix of precipitation through the afternoon
across the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Highs this
afternoon in the 30s north with the 40s over southwest Nebraska.
Tight pressure gradient this afternoon with breezy northwest winds
this morning becoming strong this afternoon. Precipitation will
end this afternoon as wave pushes south and skies begin to clear.
Temperatures will fall into the mid teens and 20s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The persistent northwest flow aloft that we have seen for the last
couple of weeks, will continue through the weekend into early next
week. Beyond this time, models hinting that upper troughing will
begin to develop across the western CONUS. This could be the start
of a major pattern change as we head toward Christmas.

In the meantime, mild Pacific air will continue to dominate, with
highs in the 40s and 50s the next several days. The exception will
be Sunday, when a bit of arctic air will mix south and hold highs in
the mid to upper 30s. This is actually where we should be normally
for highs this time of year. This bit of colder air will be in the
wake of a shortwave disturbance that will drop quickly southeast
across the central Rockies and then weaken as it moves out into the
southern plains. The models have come into better agreement with
this system, and now keep most of the light precipitation west and
southwest of the area. Will hold on to some low pops across western
and southwest Nebraska Saturday night into Sunday morning, but
chances not looking good at this time. So the continued dry pattern
appears that it will prevail.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Low stratus resulting in MVFR cigs will continue through early
evening across western Nebraska, along with scattered light snow
showers. Brief drops in visby are possible, mainly in northern
Nebraska (VTN,ANW,ONL). Blustery northwest winds will also gust
up to 30 kts through the afternoon, then wane after sunset.
Conditions improve tonight with stratus giving way to high clouds
and relatively light west winds.


Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Appears that wind and low humidity will combine to bring elevated
fire weather concerns to southwest Nebraska and the southern
Nebraska panhandle Friday. West winds at 10 to 20 mph and
humidity of 18 to 20 percent will combine to bring the elevated
conditions. Beyond Friday, no elevated or critical fire weather
conditions are expected.




LONG TERM...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.