Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 290414 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A ridge will remain over the plains with mild and dry weather
persisting through the short term. Northeast winds are expected to
increase this afternoon and will then turn more southerly as a
closed low across the Great Lakes Region drops south into the Ohio
valley and another low in the North Pacific digs and moves on shore.
The movement of these features will shift the back side of the ridge
over our area and put us into southerly flow. Given the dry air
aloft, we are expected to remain clear tonight into tomorrow with
this southerly flow expected to decouple overnight as the surface
inversion develops. It will remain dry and mild on Thursday with
high temperatures just a few degrees cooler tomorrow as the Great
Lakes low pulls down a cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The main features mentioned in the short term discussion will remain
in some form through Monday. Overall across our region, heights will
be on a lowering trend through the long term bottoming out when the
North Pacific low transitions on shore and then past the Rockies and
into the plains early next week.

By late in the weekend, southwest flow aloft will persist ahead of
the developing western U.S. upper trough with leading short waves
ahead of the main trough. Pacific moisture will advect into the
region in this southwest flow, with a slight chance for thunder
maintained in the forecast.

Attention turns to the upper trough for the beginning and middle
parts of next week. The global models are singing the same tune but
the GFS is a bit more aggressive with the strength and eastward
progression of this system. Main impacts, depending on the timing of
these features could be strong to severe storms as the trough
becomes negatively tilted and pushes through a cold front, which
could happen next Tuesday. Then, there could be a period of cool and
breezy stratiform rain mid week. We will have to see how this plays
out in reality but these are the expected impacts and timing at this
time. Consistency with the previous forecast was maintained given
its quality and the uncertainty this far out.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR is expected along and west of Highway 83 overnight through
Thursday evening. There is a slight chance patchy fog will develop
along and east of Highway 183 for a few hours Thursday
morning...11z-13z. Local IFR is possible in this area. Otherwise
a few high clouds may invade Western Nebraska Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening.




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