Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 110416 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1116 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

H5 hand analysis this morning had high pressure anchored
off the coast of the Carolinas. Ridging extended to the north
northeast into the northern Atlantic. West of the high, broad ssw
flow extended from the southern Plains north to New England. West of
this flow, a closed low was present over central Kansas with 50
meter HT falls noted over eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma.
West of the low, ht rises of 50 to 130 meters were reported. and
this was in association with a low amplitude ridge which extended
from central Colorado into eastern Ontario and the Western Dakotas.
West of the ridge, a deepening trough of low pressure was located
along the Pacific coast of western Canada with a trough extending
south into western portions of Oregon and Washington state. Ht.
falls in association with this feature ranged from 50 to 130
meters with the greatest falls located from western Washington
north into southwestern British Columbia. AT the surface, high
pressure had built into the northern plains behind the exiting
upper level system. After a cold start in the 20s this morning,
under clear skies, readings had made it this afternoon into the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A quiet short term is forecast is in store for north central
Nebraska for the next couple days. High pressure will remain over
the central US keeping conditions dry. For tonight, temperatures
will drop back into the upper 20s to mid 30s. With clear skies and
calm winds, there is a chance of some frost development. However,
with much of the forecast area already experiencing significant
frost and temperatures in the 20s in the previous night, have opted
to end all frost/freeze headlines.

Wednesday continues to be dry with winds increasing throughout the
day. Sustained winds will increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph by the afternoon. Temperatures will also begin a warming
trend that will continue throughout the remainder of the week. High
temperatures will increase into the mid 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 PM
CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Wednesday night through Friday: The upper air pattern
will continue to be west southwesterly in nature Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will develop a lee side trough of low pressure
Wednesday night along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming. The
latest models are hinting at winds remaining mixed throughout the
night which will give a boost to overnight lows. Wind potential is
highest across the sandhills and north central Nebraska and this is
where lows will be the warmest Weds night. Winds will be lighter
over sw Nebraska and have opted for lows in the mid to upper 30s. On
Thursday, a lead shortwave will lift across SW Canada, this will
force a cold front into the forecast area Thursday afternoon. ATTM,
frontal timing is such that it shouldn`t have a huge impact on
afternoon temps. With this in mind, held onto the inherited forecast
highs in the upper 60s in the NW to upper 70s in the south. Mid
level frontogenesis will increase Thursday night across northwestern
Nebraska, down stream of an approaching trough of low pressure
aloft. Additional support for pcpn, will come from an approaching
H300 jet streak. Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid to upper
30s in the far northwest, so the threat for snow overnight in the
northwest is minimal. Friday will be dry and cooler as easterly
winds behind the front will be dominant. Highs will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s. With the post frontal airmass being fairly dry,
clouds and precipitation should hold off until Friday
night/Saturday.

Friday night through Tuesday: The main upper level trough of low
pressure will track across the Rockies Saturday, crossing the plains
Saturday night. Precipitation chances will increase Saturday ahead
of this feature. ATTM the favored areas for precipitation are over
Kansas into sern Nebraska INVOF the surface front where low level
moisture pools along this feature, and further north across South
Dakota where post frontal mid level frontogenesis is maximized. For
southwestern Nebraska, precipitation appears light for now, however
with cloud cover expected, highs will struggle to reach the middle
50s. As mentioned earlier, the upper level trough will track through
the forecast area Saturday night. Almost immediately, strong
subsidence on the back side of the trough axis will clear out skies
late Saturday night. Sunday will be dry and cool with highs in the
upper 50s. Warmer air will push back into the region Monday and
Tuesday with highs reaching back into the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR is expected all areas overnight through Wednesday evening.

Sfc low pressure across srn British Columbia will move southeast
into MT tonight and remain nearly stationary through Wednesday
evening. South winds and scattered high clouds will develop
throughout wrn and ncntl Neb.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC



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