Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 201811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
111 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Have extended thunderstorms from southwest into north central
zones with current radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 456 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016



.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Models in fair agreement. Main disagreements is timing with weak
waves moving around high. Showers over north central early this
morning will carry a pre first period and continue them through
the morning. Heat continues 30c at 850mb west of a line from
Ainsworth to Eustis. Valentine at 104f warmest. Yesterdays highs
tanked by about a category with increased td`s. Mostly sunny today
with good insolation and south flow and 850mb temperatures continue
to warm most areas around 100 today with td`s in the upper 60s to
around 70. A weak wave will bring the slight chance for
precipitation to southwest Nebraska this evening. Lows tonight in
the upper 60s. Highlights unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Little changes were made to the going forecast for Thursday. Hot and
humid temperatures continue with 850mb temperatures reaching near 30
degrees Celsius resulting in surface highs in the upper 90s to low
100s for the entire CWA. Heat indexes will easily rise into the low
100s resulting in very dangerous conditions. Will continue the heat
advisory across the western tier of counties and the excessive heat
warning for everyone else for Thursday. Current models are still
indicating a weak shortwave trough to move across the central Plains
on Thursday afternoon/evening. This will result in a chance of some
isolated and weak thunderstorms. Due to the uncertainty in how
showers might develop in such a warm and humid environment, have
only put in a slight chance (20 percent) of thunderstorms for
Thursday evening.

The humid and warm conditions continue into Friday, with heat
advisories and excessive heat warnings continuing until Friday
evening. A better chance of thunderstorm development occurs on
Friday evening as a stronger trough moves into the central Plains
and a weak low pressure system develops across the northern Plains.
There is still some model disagreement in timing and development of
this feature and therefore, only low chance pops(30 percent) are in
the forecast for Friday night. Slightly cooler temperatures return
for the beginning of the weekend, with highs in the low to mid-90s.
Another chance for precipitation arrives Saturday night, as a cold
front pushes across the region. While models are in fair agreement,
strength of the front is uncertain. Will keep only low chance pops
in the forecast for now.

For Sunday and the beginning of next week, relatively cooler
temperatures return. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper-
80s. Temperatures will remain fairly constant through the beginning
of next week. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances also continue
from Sunday through Tuesday. It`s a little too far out to know if
the showers/thunderstorms will become severe if they even develop at
all. For now, will just include a mention of thunderstorms until
details become more certain.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hrs across all of western
and north central Nebraska. There is little threat of any
thunderstorm activity with high pressure aloft in control.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for NEZ004-022-

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for



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