Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 121817
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
117 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SCNTL SD WILL KICK EAST THIS MORNING AND SEND
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE AIR COMING IN IS STILL
MILD AND RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING CALGARY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST THIS AFTN AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS OF ERN COLO AND EAST TOWARD
KOMA.

THE RESULT IS A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN NEB. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SOLID CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEVELOPS THIS
AFTN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

BY 00Z TONIGHT K INDICES ARE AROUND 20C OR LESS IN THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTING TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTN ARE NIL. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE ECM...SREF AND GFS. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
PILING UP MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY 06Z AND IT IS BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z THAT TSTMS COULD BEGIN APPROACHING THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NEB PANHANDLE. BY THIS TIME THE MOISTURE POOL IS ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH INTERSTATE 80 AND AREAS SOUTH. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD APPEAR SMALL AND IN FACT WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT FOLLOWS A MULTIMODEL APPROACH FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD BE DROPPING
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH A RAIN CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IN SHERIDAN COUNTY AROUND 09Z WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND 06Z NAM. THE POP AND QPF FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GEM...NAM...GFS
AND ECM. THE SREF WAS THE WETTEST SOLN AND DISCARDED FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS POOLS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE ARCTIC AIR COOLS THE LOWER LAYERS CLOSE TO
SATURATION. FARTHER SOUTH...THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB
FOR RAIN. EVEN THE NEXT WETTEST MODEL...THE NAM...WAITS FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT BEFORE SATURATING BELOW 700 MB. ALAS...THE BEST
FORECAST WILL LIKELY COME FRONT THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED
THE BEST THIS WINTER AND SPRING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS...HEADED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. STRONG
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND OR
WET SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALSO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS SUNDAY...BUT DON/T
FEEL COMFORTABLE RISING ANY FURTHER DUE TO THE EXPECTED OVERALL
WEAKENING/DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION BAND. BY SUNDAY
EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST
PART...AS DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS VIA A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AS H85
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS PLUS. SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. CHILLY
CONDITIONS THEN FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A NICE RECOVERY...WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY RETURNING BACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN DECENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GEM WOULD SUPPORT THE GFS/GEFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ FOR
NOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ALL MODELS BRING IN MORE COLD AIR...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL END ON CHILLY
NOTE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

CONCERNS THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY ARE WITH INCREASE OF
CLOUDS...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDS WILL STAY
NORTHERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND STAY GUSTY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25KTS TO 30KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 40KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KOGA TO
KVTN. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY TO IFR OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWER CATEGORY CEILINGS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW BY MID MORNING FROM KOGA
TO KANW AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
OCCUR OVER KVTN BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...SO DROPPED THE VISIBILITY TO
IFR WITH -SN...ALTHOUGH COULD GET A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW
WITH LESSER VISIBILITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
ARE VERY LIGHT...JUST 20 TO 25 KT AT H850 IN ALL MODELS. SO FIRE
DANGER IS ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







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