Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 040513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1113 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Weak upper level trough moving across the plains today. Weak
midlevel disturbance which brought some light snow across
southeastern Neb, continues to drift further to the east of the
CWA. A few high clouds spreading in from the west with northwest
flow in the wake of the trough. The clouds should help keep temps
a mild overnight, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Flow transitions to more zonal tomorrow as a trough digs across the
Pacific NW. Mild air remains in place and while there could still be
some lingering high clouds, decent mixing do to downsloping west
winds will help to push temps once again into the 40s. If we see
full sun through the day 50 would be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

The main sensible weather concerns in the long term period are
cold temperatures mid-week to Friday and snowfall chances
Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The main highlights include below
seasonal normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday, the coldest
period being Wednesday through Thursday morning, and light
snowfall potential late Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning. No
significant accumulating snow is expected in this time period.
High temperatures are forecast to bottom out Wednesday, about 20
to 30 degrees below normal, with highs mainly in the teens. This
will be followed by single digit lows Thursday morning that are
forecast at this time to range from 5 below to zero in the far
northwest Sandhills to about 5 above in north central NEB.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Another unseasonably warm day is
expected as downsloping westerly winds prevail into Monday. The
large scale pattern will feature a quasi-zonal flow Sunday
evening becoming southwesterly Monday as a mid-level short wave
trough swings across the Northern Rockies Tomorrow Night then
moves into the Northern Plains Monday. A 500 hPa closed low is
expected to then develop Monday Night near eastern ND/western
MN/far southern Manitoba. A broad trough is expected to encompass
the Pacific Northwest and much of the central CONUS by Monday
Night with the closed mid-level low over the Chihuahuan Desert
Sunday evening ejecting northeast into the Southern Plains Monday.
A surface low is expected to develop in the Northern High Plains
early Monday that will then move eastward through the Northern
Plains Monday evening. A cold front will then move eastward
through western and north central NEB by Monday evening. However,
in this time period there remains some uncertainty in the track
of the low and the timing of the front -- this will need to be
watched as it could affect temperatures. Furthermore, not
expecting much in terms of precipitation with just slight chances
forecast in portions of far western NEB. Also, will see some
moderate winds Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thereafter, a
surface ridge will build southward from the Northern High Plains
into the Central Plains by Tuesday. Cold arctic air will advance
into the Central Plains with 850 hPa temperatures ranging from -12
to -6 C Tuesday afternoon wherein highs are anticipated to be
largely in the 20s.

Tuesday Night through Saturday: The arctic air mass will continue
to impact the local forecast area through Friday. Temperatures at
this time appear to bottom out Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Of
which, moderate winds will combine with the colder temperatures to
bring sub-zero wind chills mid-week. Notably, wind chills 15 below
or colder look likely Wednesday Night in portions of the far
northwestern and far northern Sandhills. Of note, CIPS analog
guidance shows a strong signal with respect to 24-hr minimum wind
chills below -10 F valid 12/08 00 UTC, with a modest signal
present for minimum wind chills below -20 F. This further suggests
the potential for wind chill impacts in this time period and, as
such, will need to monitored further for impacts.

A disturbance aloft moving west to east Tuesday night into
Wednesday will bring the potential for light snow to portions of
the local forecast area. A weak low develops southwest of the
local forecast area in CO that then moves south. The best chances
for light snow appears to be across southwest to south central NEB
with only light amounts expected at this time -- one to two inches
possible. A stronger ridge builds from the Northern High Plains
Wednesday, thereafter the ridge builds eastward. Temperatures look
to rebound Friday and Saturday with near normal highs temperatures
expected by Saturday. Of note, Tuesday and beyond we may need to
further adjust the high and low temperatures in this period, more
so lows, based on the latest consensus data, EKDMOS meteograms,
and GEFS plumes wherein it appears the current forecast leans
towards the warm side when inspecting the envelope of the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

IFR ceilings continue east of a MCK to BBW line ahead of a surface
trough of low pressure. To the west, across much of western
Nebraska, including KLBF and KVTN, VFR conditions with scattered
to broken highs clouds were occurring. Low clouds near few003
recently reported at KLBF should exit the area by around 06z.
Surface winds will mainly range southwest below 10kts. By around
03z/5th through the end of the TAF period, low level wind shear is
forecast at KLBF and KVTN.




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