Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 212336 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High pressure across the Northern Plains will build into Wrn and
Ncntl Neb tonight followed by Pacific high pressure Saturday. The
guidance came in with subfreezing lows tonight in the Platte valley
and elsewhere. These data sets were blended and bias corrected for
lows mostly in the mid 30s. The RAP model indicates drying aloft and
residual low level moisture but no fog. The HRRR and SREF models
also indicate no fog.

Generally clear skies are expected Saturday with high pressure
moving overhead. H850mb temperatures warm to near 10C by 00z which
supports highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The models continue to show strong dry return flow Sunday. 500m AGL
winds increase to around 25kt in the afternoon which supports south
winds of 25 mph. A low level jet takes over Sunday night ahead of
Pacific cold front forecast to move through Monday morning.

A series of disturbances will move through the Cntl Plains Tuesday
through Friday. The models show significant timing and track
differences with the disturbances. The GFS and it`s ensemble are
paired off with a strong upper low lifting through the region
Thursday while the ECM and GEM show the same across KS followed by a
second strong disturbance Friday or beyond. This is a significant
difference which forces a broad brush to the forecast.

POPs have been limited to 30 to 50 percent which is about 10 percent
higher than yesterday. WPC suggests around an inch to 1 and 1/2
inches of rainfall Tuesday through Friday and the CPC continues to
outlook most of Nebraska for heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday.

The storm mode would be showers and generally isolated
thunderstorms. K indices in the GFS and ECM hover in the lower 30s
at times across Wrn Neb and a check on the ensemble severe weather
procedure indicates no organized severe weather opportunities...this
would likely occur near or in the warm sector which will be south of
Wrn and Ncntl Neb.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Isolated showers over the Nebraska Panhandle this evening. VFR
over Western Nebraska with mid and high clouds and easterly winds
around 10kts. Winds will diminish this evening with some clearing
Saturday morning.




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