Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The sprinkles and light showers appear to be exiting Swrn Neb as
forecast. The models indicate clearing skies this morning and early
this afternoon with clear skies tonight.

Any additional disturbances in the northwest flow aloft appear to be
steered east through the Upper midwest tonight. This is because the
upper level ridge across the Swrn U.S. is forecast to expand north
and east. Light south winds develop tonight with a very modest
increase in moisture...dew points rising to around 50F.

The forecast uses blended guidance plus bias correction for lows in
the upper 40s and 50s tonight. The temperature forecast today uses a
blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction which is close
to the blended guidance. The HRRR EXP model was the warmest solution
with highs in the upper 80s across Swrn Neb. The forecast is for mid
80s in this area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A dry forecast continues through Wednesday as high pressure
slowly slides eastward. There is a slight chance of some
precipitation late on Wednesday, however, confidence is not high in
the development of showers/thunderstorms. Mid-week temperatures
remain warm with most locations rising into the mid 80s to low 90s
on Tuesday. Wednesday temperatures range from the upper 80s across
the north to the upper 90s south of I-80. With plenty of sunshine
and warm air advection into the region, the potential exists for
temperatures to rise a few degrees higher than what is forecasted at
this time. Will continue to monitor over the next day.

A better chance of precipitation arrives on Thursday through Friday
night as a couple shortwaves move across the central Plains. The
first wave arrives late Thursday night/early Friday morning with the
second wave arriving Friday night/early Saturday. Both waves have
the potential of producing some thunderstorms, however, severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. Timing and location of
these waves is still a little uncertain and therefore did not feel
comfortable putting in anything more than chance Pops at this time.
Cooler air filtering into the region will result in cooler
temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. Highs
Thursday drop into the 80s before dropping into the 70s on Friday.
With rain and clouds around on Saturday, highs will struggle to even
get into the 70s. Have included sites along and south of the I-80
corridor in the low 70s, but elsewhere, temperatures will remain in
the upper 60s. Sunday highs return into the mid-70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Some mid level cloudiness continues across the area this afternoon.
That should decrease with skies becoming mostly clear. VFR conditions
expected all areas.


Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

High water continues on the North Platte river upstream of Lake
Mcconaughy due to increased releases from upstream reservoirs in
Wyoming. The higher flows will gradually decrease over the next
several days. The gauge at Lewellen currently reads 7.1 feet and
this should fall to around 6.6 feet this weekend. Flood stage is
7.5 feet.




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