Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KLBF 180432
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY LINE
ACROSS WESTERN NEB. 19Z OB FOR KSNY HAS A 41 DEGREE DEW PT...WHILE
KOGA HAS A 64 DEGREE DEW PT. MEANWHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MORNING S DAKOTA CONVECTION HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE S DAKOTA/NEB
BORDER. CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AIDED BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS STORMS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY. ALSO SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS BOYD AND HOLT COUNTY. THE N CENTRAL ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO NE NEB...HOWEVER EXPECT THE CHERRY COUNTY
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS IT DRIFTS EAST. CAPE
VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY
IN EFFECT. CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE ACTIVITY WILL BUILD.
TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW PTS AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S FOR SW NEB...ALTHOUGH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH. LAPS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO CAP AND VISIBLE SAT SHOWING
SOME CU DEVELOPING. EXPECT AS LEAST SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED. ALL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EAST AND EXIT LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER LOW POPS
AS HIGHER PROB OF IT EXITING BY 12Z. LOWS TRICKY AS CONVECTION WILL
AID IN COOLING ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEW PTS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING. HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH IS MID 50S WEST TO MID 60S IN THE
EAST. BY TOMORROW MID MORNING SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS SW NEB...AND THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT CREATES A MOIST TRAJECTORY FROM WEST
TEXAS...ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE THEN CONVERGES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER AND INCREASES THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES. WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500-2500J/KG AND
DEEP BULK SHEAR OF 35-40KT...STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED...SEVERE WORDING WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST GRID
SET.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TAFS THROUGH 06Z/19TH.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
AOB 12KTS TO SET IN AFTER 16Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.