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852
FXUS63 KLBF 162036
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Upper level ridging will dominate the weather tonight and Tuesday.
Southwest winds are advecting a very dry airmass in from Colorado
and Wyoming, where some dew point readings are near 0F and humidity
around 5%. Winds decouple to light west tonight, expect temperatures
will quickly fall. Went with the colder guidance due to the dry
airmass and light winds, and lows near 30F across much of western
Nebraska and 40F farther east.

Dry airmass remains in place Tuesday. Sided with the warmest
guidance in the mid to upper 70s, with even a few 80 degree highs.
Winds will be a bit less Tuesday compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Mostly clear skies continue from the west coast through the
Mississippi Valley. Models in fair agreement with synoptic scale
features. Winds remain a concern for western Nebraska with the dry
airmass in place. Have increased winds slightly through the day on
Wednesday with the FROPA and cut temperatures into the upper 60s
northwest to mid 70s southeast. Some variability showing up through
the later periods in ensemble means, but at most 2 standard
deviations. Wednesday will see a more zonal pattern aloft. Thursday
and Friday will see the ridge rebounding and shifting east into the
Great Lakes region and stronger trough deepens over the west. The
Gulf open and moisture streams north into the central plains.
Strongest moisture advection into the Missouri River Valley Friday
into Saturday. Upper trough moving into the west through the day on
Saturday with falling temperatures through the day and precipitation
over the higher elevations of the Panhandle. Increased wind speeds
and temperatures in the 50s and 60s for daytime highs Saturday with
highs in the 60s on Sunday as the upper trough moves east.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR with just a few high cirrus clouds are expected the rest of
today into Tuesday. Southwest winds could gust to near 20 KTS this
afternoon, but will decrease quickly around sunset tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Very dry airmass in place, with upstream dew point readings in the
single digits and humidity values 5 to 10% in places. Humidity will
recover tonight to around 75% western Nebraska and 85% farther east.
Tuesday will again be very dry, but at this time the winds appear to
remain light enough to require any fire weather headlines. Will pass
the concern along to the oncoming forecast shift, and if the winds
appear they will be stronger than forecast Tuesday, a fire weather
headline may be needed for portions of far western Nebraska.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

North Platte River at Lewellen has dropped below action stage and
has continued there the last two days so have dropped the River
Statement. No Hydro products currently in effect.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor
HYDROLOGY...Power