Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
710 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low
over northern Kansas with a broad trough of low pressure across the
central CONUS. Upstream of the trough, a shortwave was located over
eastern Idaho into western Colorado. This has led to light
precipitation across southeastern Wyoming and north central Colorado
overnight. Some of which was falling as snow in southeastern
Wyoming. Further east, cloudy skies were present across western and
north central Nebraska, however dry conditions persisted as surface
high pressure was anchored across the Sandhills overnight.
Temperatures were cold underneath the high. Readings as of 3 AM CDT,
ranged from the lower 30s in the sandhills to the lower 40s in
O`Neill and Ogallala where cloud cover was more persistent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Today and Tonight:  Over the next 24 hours
temperatures will be the main forecast concern. For today: Surface
high pressure will track to the south southwest into western Kansas.
As this feature tracks south of the region, winds will shift around
to the south and southwest, pushing warmer air north ward into the
region. H85 temps by this afternoon will reach 6 to 10 C across the
forecast area. With clearing this afternoon, abundant sun and dry
air in place, temperatures will rise quickly today and are expected
to reach the lower to middle 60s. By tonight, high pressure will
continue to track into northern Texas. Surface low pressure will
deepen across western South Dakota with a warm front extending
across northern South Dakota. Southerly winds will increase across
northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota overnight, which will
give a boost to highs in northern Nebraska. Further south, lighter
winds are expected which will allow lows to dip into the lower 30s.
Will forgo mention of frost in the forecast as we are still around a
week away from issuing frost/freeze products as the mean date is
during the first two weeks of May. Given the warm conditions over
the past month, am leaning toward the end of next week for issuing
any frost/freeze products, which is still around a week ahead of the
climatological norm.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Strong south winds will develop Sunday beneath upper level ridging
aloft. A leeward surface trough will develop along the front range
of the Rockies, with a tight surface pressure gradient from east to
west across the region. Bufkit sounding data from Thedford/Sandhills
indicates mixing up to nearly 750 mb Sunday afternoon, with
potential wind gusts to 35 kts /40+ mph/ mixing to the surface.
We`ll have to entertain the potential for heightened fire weather
concerns Sunday afternoon as humidity falls to 20 to 25 percent
combined with the gusty south winds.

The next system is forecast to move across the northern plains
Monday. Most of the precipitation with this system will remain well
north in the Dakotas.

A deep upper level trough is expected to develop across the western
Conus Tuesday into Wednesday, and then track east into the central
portions of the country Thursday. A lead wave will likely bring the
first shot of rain to the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Thursday,
as the upper trough migrates into the central portions of the
country, widespread rain is possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Skies will become mostly clear across western and north central
Nebraska later this morning with only scattered high clouds
expected for the afternoon into tonight. At the KLBF terminal
there is a threat for scattered low clouds around 2500 FT AGL
through mid morning.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.