454
FXUS63 KLBF 271721
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and
  evening and again Saturday with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
  of severe weather each day.

- Heat returns today and Saturday as highs climb into the low to
  mid 90s with heat indices approaching the mid 90s today and
  the upper 90s for some on Saturday.

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday through
  Thursday of next week (20-50%), however, the threat for
  severe weather is uncertain Monday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Surface low pressure will deepen from central Wyoming to along
the Front Range of Colorado by late this afternoon as zonal flow
aloft extends across the region. A modest dryline with dewpoints
near 50F will exist across the northwest Sandhills, with mid to
upper 60s dewpoints across the Sandhills to the east. Highs
today were raised a few degrees to 90 to 95 degrees, with heat
index values up to 95 degrees. Southerly winds will be stronger
across the north central at 15 to 25 mph. MLCAPEs by peak
heating will reach 2000-4000 J/KG as effective bulk shear
reaches 35 to 40kts. This will be sufficient for multicell
storms and a few supercell storms to develop by mid afternoon
across the northwest Sandhills and move eastward late afternoon
and evening. Storms are favored to congeal into a cluster of
storms across the eastern half of north central Nebraska, as
shown by the majority of the CAMs. Large hail is likely with the
strongest storms as well as damaging winds with DCAPE to 1500
J/KG. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast across
north central Nebraska southward to near I80 in Lincoln and
Keith County. Further south across southwest Nebraska, only a
slight chance for storms, with coverage expected to remain
isolated. The storms will begin to move east of the area by late
evening. Clearing skies after midnight with lows in the low to
mid 60s.

Saturday, highs to reach the mid 90s, with upper 90s in the far
southwest. Heat index values reach the mid 90s, with some upper
90s possible in the east and far southwest. A prefrontal
surface trough will bisect central portions of the forecast area
by late afternoon with a slight chance for thunderstorms by
late afternoon. Storm chance increase Saturday night to 20 to 40
percent, with the higher POPS across the north central. A
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is again forecast across
portions of north central Nebraska with a Marginal Risk further
south over the remainder of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A cold front moves through on Sunday, with highs not as hot from
near 85 north to the upper 80s to near 90 south. A Marginal Risk
for sever thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Will
see an upper trough cross the Northern Plains Sunday into the
Great Lakes Monday. Highs in the mid 80s Monday gradually warm
to the upper 80s to around 90 by Thursday. Daily chances for
thunderstorms each day, with the threat for severe weather
uncertain for Monday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central
Nebraska. This afternoon, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected across the western Sandhills, moving east this evening.
Brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds can be expected
with any thunderstorms this evening. Storms are then expected
to wane into tonight.

Winds remain gusty from the south-southeast this afternoon, with
gusts of 20 to 25kts expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown