Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171105
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
605 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

At 08z...A cold front was located from western Iowa through central
Kansas. The airmass behind the front remains fairly mild, with
temperatures in western Nebraska in the lower to mid 40s. A few
sprinkles recently reported at O`Neill from isolated showers moving
into northeast Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Today...An upper trough will drop southeast through the Dakotas and
Minnesota into the Western Great Lakes. This will bring windy
conditions across the northeast half of the forecast area, with
lighter winds of 10 to 15 mph across southwestern areas. While 850
mb temperature will be about 10C cooler than yesterday, deep mixing
will help highs reach to near 60 across northern Nebraska, to near
70 parts of southwest Nebraska. Elevated fire weather conditions
will exist across much of the northeast half of the area. Details
can be found in the fire weather section.

Tonight...The upper ridge will move eastward toward the northern and
central High Plains. Winds will veer to the east and southeast
overnight. Lows are near previous forecast from the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the weather pattern
until later next week, when an upper level trough will move east into
the central and northern plains.

South winds will develop Saturday to the east of a leeward surface
trough developing along the front range. Slightly backed winds to
the southeast will help keep high temperatures down a few degrees to
the east of Highway 183, where low to mid 60s are expected. West of
183 highs should reach the lower to mid 70s. Slightly higher dew
points (mid to upper 30s) will begin to advect into the area from
the south during the afternoon hours. It appears this may be just
enough moisture to keep critical fire weather conditions at bay. A
surge of gulf moisture quickly advances northward Saturday night on a
strong southerly low level jet. The GFS increases dew points into
the lower 50s along and south of Interstate 80, with the NAM and
ECMWF in the 40s. This moisture will be mixed out Sunday as the
surface trough advances east across the area. The surface trough
does not have as good a push east as some previous model runs
suggested, and that may keep areas to the east of Highway 83 from
reaching the critical fire danger criteria due to higher dew points
and humidity. Otherwise very warm, especially across western
Nebraska to the west of the surface trough, where highs well into
the 80s are expected.

The next Pacific cold front arrives Monday, with a pattern shift to
cooler and wetter conditions for next week. Models continue to
indicate a lead shortwave will advance east Monday night into
Tuesday with at least scattered rain and snow showers. A stronger
Pacific storm will move into California midweek then advance east
into the central plains by Thursday. Expect increasing chances for
shower and perhaps thunderstorm activity with this system. Little
chance for snow at this time do to mild temperatures. Will continue
to monitor the model trends. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions will persist across western Nebraska the next 24
hours. At KVTN, northwest winds near 32015g25kt will persist from
18z-00z. At KLBF, northwest winds this afternoon should remain
near or below 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for portions of
north central and central Nebraska. This to include eastern Cherry,
Keya Paha, Brown, Rock, Holt, Thomas, Blaine, Loup, Garfield,
Wheeler, and Custer County. The combination of northwest winds 15 to
30 mph, and low minimum relative humidity as low as 20 percent, will
combine to create near critical fire conditions. These counties will
be highlighted in a Spacial Weather Statement.

On Saturday, minimum RH could fall to around 20 percent in zone 204
and 210 with south winds gusting to 20 mph.

Critical fire weather conditions may develop on Sunday with highs
reaching 80 to 87 in most areas. AS the upper level ridge begins to
break down, a Pacific cold front will approach the area, with
westerly winds increasing ahead of the front to 15 to 25 mph.
Minimum RH forecast as low as 10 to 15 percent across zones 204,
210, and 219, with 15 to 20 percent common across zones 206, 208,
and 209.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg



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