National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KLBF 042135
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AND OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS...THE MODELS ARE TRACKING DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THEN THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES AND CNTL PLAINS. THIS
LEAVES THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN A DRY SLOT AND THE SRN
PORTION IN OR CLOSE TO THE STORM TRACK THROUGH THE CNTL ROCKIES.

BIG WARM UPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S IN MANY AREAS...PERHAPS WARMER. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF VERY WARM AIR SURGING EAST OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES. THESE
WARM SPELLS WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR
LASTING 1 OR 2 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WYOMING/COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...AND BE CENTERED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...TO MOVE SOUTH INTO KANSAS/COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FAIRLY MOIST ACROSS THE
AREA...AND EXPECTED LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO PUSH/DEVELOP SOUTH JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DUE TO
THE MOIST LAYER BEING QUITE SHALLOW AND LIFT MEAGER...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AND WILL PASS ALONG TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT. OTHERWISE...AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...AN AREA OF
SNOW/SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. FOR THE MOST PART...THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THIS IS DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
OUR REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DOES APPEAR
TO REMAIN JUST MOIST ENOUGH THAT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. HAVE
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINING UNDER ONE INCH. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SLEET AS WELL...AS A WARM LAYER ALOFT AT THE ONSET IS
NOTED.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WINDS RECYCLE SOME COLD
AIR NORTHWARD...SO DON/T EXPECT A BIG WARM UP. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL ND AND SET UP A STRONG SWLY
LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM INCREASES H850MB WINDS TO 30
TO 40 KT BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH SFC WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SAND
HILLS. H850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 6C TO 9C AT THE SAME TIME. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS WILL SCOUR OUT ANY ARCTIC AIR AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
WARM UP THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. H850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO 10C OR WARMER WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT. THE ECM INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS SO THE TEMP FORECAST DOES NO FULLY
MIX THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE DOWN FROM ANY HIGHER THAN THE VERY TOP
OF THE INVERSION SHOWN IN THE NAM. STILL THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
60S IN MANY AREAS...MORE THAN WHAT IS SHOWN BY THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE CNTL AND SRN
ZONES. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODEST 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
DRIFTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS A COMPACT DISTURBANCE...100
MILES OR SO WIDE...SO CHANGES IN THE FCST TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS...GEM AND NAM CARRY
THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA WHILE THE ECM
KEEPS IT WET ALONG THE CHEYENNE DIVIDE BUT DRIES IT OUT ACROSS THE
EAST. THE FCST LIMITS POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
WITH 40 PERCENT TO THE WEST.

THE PTYPE IS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AT 0.10 INCHES OR LESS SO THIS IS ANOTHER JUNKER
SYSTEM. RATHER THAN INCORPORATE LARGE METEOROLOGICAL GRADIENTS OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POP FORECAST....A MODEL BLEND OF THE
GFS...SREF...ECM...NAM AND GEM WAS USED AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE SCALPED FROM THE FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST IS DRY AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA SATURDAY AND BE LOCATED OVER THE MID
SOUTH AND SRN PLAINS BY NOON SUNDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CLUSTERS
H850MB TEMPERATURES AT 10 TO 13C AT NORTH PLATTE SUNDAY. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND RESIDE IN THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF
A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH SRN CANADA. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY SHOULD EASILY REPLACE
THE LOWER 40S FORECAST SATURDAY. 60S SUNDAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST H850 WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SHOWN IN THE GFS...GEF AND ECM.

THE THERMAL RIDGE GETS DRIVEN SOUTH MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PRODUCES A MODEST COOL DOWN TO 7C-8C AT
H850MB AS PACIFIC AIR GETS DRAFTED SOUTH THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE FCST AREA. WE COULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY.

TWO SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NEXT TUESDAY. THE GEF AND GFS DRAW A
LARGE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE THE
ECM BACKS ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GFS AND GEF FOR HIGHS AROUND 50. HPC SUGGESTED THE ECM SOLN FOR
HIGHS AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SETTLING IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND
EASTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...CONFIDENT THE STRATUS WILL MOVE SOUTH OR
DEVELOP THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS/CONDITIONS A GOOD BET AT
BOTH THE KVTN AND KLBF TAF SITES BY EARLY TO MID EVENING TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR