Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 170536 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

A SERIES OF ARCTIC COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WILL RELAX AND SPLIT FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE CNTL PLAINS NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 5 PM WHICH WILL
LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. MINOR BLOWING SNOW WAS
INDICATED BY NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF ROADS HIGHWAY CAMERAS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SNOW SHOWERS WHICH LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR
AND 15 MINUTES IS MOST CASES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW HAS BECOME ANCHORED IN THE DITCHES SO THE
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW...GUSTY WIND...COLD TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A SHALLOW BUT
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIFT ROOTED BETWEEN 875-775MB...CO-LOCATED WITH
SUFFICIENT SATURATION.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER IS WELL
WITHIN THE DGZ...THUS THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AMOUNT TO AN INCH AT
MOST...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NW NEBR SHOULD SEE JUST TRACE AMOUNTS
OF FRESH SNOW.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEAKER LIFT AND LESS SATURATION WOULD AMOUNT FOR
FLURRIES AT BEST.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE SATURATION DECREASES AND LIFT SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES IN A POST FRONTAL ARCTIC REGIME WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  AFTER WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS LOWS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING H85 T/S WILL LOWER TO MINUS 20C OR COLDER BY MIDDAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID 20S FAHRENHEIT.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THIS POST
FRONTAL REGIME...WITH STRONG CAA AIDING TO MIX DOWN MOMENTUM OF
30-40KTS FROM H85...GUSTS ON MONDAY COULD EXCEED 30MPH IN OPEN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NEBRASKA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STRONGEST.  GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...SUB ZERO APPARENT
T/S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.  ELSEWHERE SUB ZERO WIND
CHILLS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.   WIND
CHILLS APPROACHING MINUS 20 FAHRENHEIT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT
GO WITH ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CRITERIA
IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL /PATCHY/.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

IN TERMS OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE
NEED OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW.
ATTM...OBSERVATIONS REVEAL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...THE DECISION WILL BE MADE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB AND UP
ARE STILL QUITE COLD...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE HIGH WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE FCST AREA AT 03Z-09Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE VALLEYS AND THE SNOW COVERED NORTH.

STRONG WARMING FROM THE WEST TO EAST DEVELOPS TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE
40S SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH WITH 20S AND 30S NORTH WHERE SNOW COVER IS IN
PLACE. THIS WARMING DEVELOPS OUT IN FRONT OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE NAM IS GIVING A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS NRN NEB. THIS THEN SETS THE STAGE FOR
A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...LOWER 40S
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

A CHECK ON WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWS WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
AND WEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY RESPONDS BY SHOOTING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS
PROGRESSIVE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATER MODEL RUNS MAY SHOW A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED SOLN WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW.

OTHERWISE THE COOLER GFS AND GEF SOLNS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR ONCE THE ECM IS FASTER RELAXING THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN AMPLIFICATION WHICH FLOGGED THE PLAINS WITH ARCTIC
AIR FOR A WEEK OR LONGER. GIVEN THE MODEL BALANCE TOWARD COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 40S ARE FORECAST.

THE MODELS ARE CLOSER FRIDAY AND ALL SOLNS....EXCEPT THE GEM...SHOW
THE ARCTIC AIR OFF EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND THIS IS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES TO THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED ECM
AND GFS DATA SETS WHICH SUGGESTS GOOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY AND THEN WILL INCREASE MID
TO LATE MORNING AND GUST TO AROUND 30KTS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ALONG WITH THEM
THE LIGHT FLURRIES ALSO. SKIES HAD SCATTERED OUT AND VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER






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