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000
FXUS63 KLBF 241156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
556 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. FURTHER
WEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES AND SWRN CANADA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BROAD NNW FLOW EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MT...SWD INTO CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE A TANDEM OF SURFACE
LOWS WAS NOTED ACROSS SRN HUDSON BAY AND THE CAROLINAS INTO
GEORGIA. NORTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
NRN ALBERTA. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM
CST WERE MILD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH SOME LOWER 30S
NOTED OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TWO MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE
WINDS AND LOW PCPN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
FOR TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SWD INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS
WILL SURGE TO 6 TO 8C BY MIDDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN THIS MORNING AND
GOOD WESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND THE 50 TO 60 KT H850 WINDS
FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IT WAS DECIDED THAT THE MET WINDS
WERE WAY TOO SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OPTED FOR THE
STRONGER MAV WINDS. THIS LED TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THE INHERITED FCST. IN ADDITION
TO WIND...LIFT INVOF THE FRONT WILL BE DECENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EASTERN CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND TIME SECTIONS IN THESE
AREAS INDICATE GOOD TOP DOWN MOISTURE SATURATION DURING THE
PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST 5 TO 10K
FT AGL...WILL ONLY SUPPORT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ATTM.
OVERNIGHT...A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS APPG NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY.
LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND AND AFTER
CONVERSING WITH GID AND OAX...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS
IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH BREEZY CONDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
READINGS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY. A BRIEF KNOCK
DOWN OF 850 MB TEMPS WILL LIMIT WARMING ON SUNDAY. 850 MB
GENERALLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES PLUS/MINUS FROM ZERO...COOLEST
ACROSS N CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS N CENTRAL. MORE SUN AND WARM
850 TEMPS WILL HELP SW NEB INTO THE LOWER 50S. SOME LINGER SNOW
OVER NW NEB AND HIGHS KNOCKED DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. A THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO START THE WEEK WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE TO GET SHIFTED N AND E. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. BOTH MAV AND EC GUIDANCE FOR
SW NEB MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS MID TO UPPER 60S...AND WITH NO SNOW
PACK HAVE FAVORED CLOSER TO THIS WARM GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AS MODELS DEVELOP A HIGH NEAR CRAIG COLORADO ALONG
WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS. THIS CRAIG HIGH AND WESTERLY
WINDS OFTEN RESULTS IN GUIDANCE UNDER ESTIMATING HIGHS. STILL A
COUPLE DAYS OUT AND DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ABOVE GUIDANCE SO ONLY
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE AND TRENDED FORECAST UP. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH DEW PTS WHICH ARE USUALLY TO MOIST.

WED WILL BE ANOTHER NICE LATE JANUARY DAY WITH HIGHS STILL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH ARE PROBABLE.
DRY LOWER LEVELS AND SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY THURSDAY RIDGE RETREATS TO THE WEST AND NW FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
COOLER AIR TO DIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THURSDAY HIGHS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 40 TO NEAR 50...BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW WED
HIGHS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TODAY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND MAY GUST OVER 30 KTS AT THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...AND FROM 3500 TO 5000 FT AGL AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD 06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB