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000
FXUS63 KICT 032334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE PASSAGE...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS. SO EXPECTING A FRIGID NIGHT ONCE AGAIN (LOWS
SINGLE DIGITS) HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO GO MUCH BELOW ZERO.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEXT TROUGH AXIS
ALONG PACIFIC NW COAST...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSIVELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHILE DEEPENING SOME. PROGGED LIFT IS DECENT WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DURATION LOOKS
LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT A
FRESH COATING UP TO 1 INCH AT MOST. CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD HIGHS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LEE
TROUGHING...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER AIR ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. THIS
SHOULD MELT ANY REMNANT SNOW FIELD.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO
WEDNESDAY`S...DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS
HAS RECENTLY SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN AND DEEPENED IT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEEPER AND SLOWER FOR SEVERAL
RUNS...CLOSING THIS SYSTEM OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER JET
STREAM. HOWEVER...IT HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN OSCILLATIONS WITH THE
UPPER LOW TRACK. THEREFORE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
AVERAGE REGARDING TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO PENETRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
MARGINAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD
EASILY CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG OR GROUND FOG DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE ON TUE. MODELS NOT HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VERY
WELL...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA.  SO THINK
NEARLY SATURATED MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE OVERDONE. BUT WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND SOME MINOR SNOW MELT...THINK SOME MVFR
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE.  SO AT LEAST WORTH A MENTION FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUE.

MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL ON TUE AFTERNOON. BUT AGAIN THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVERDONE...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

REMNANT SNOW FIELD AND SNOWMELT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER CONCERNS LOW TO NIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT     6  38  25  38 /   0   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON       9  38  25  37 /   0   0  10  40
NEWTON           6  36  24  36 /   0   0  10  40
ELDORADO         8  37  23  37 /   0   0  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD    8  38  24  37 /   0   0  10  50
RUSSELL         11  41  24  39 /   0   0  40  40
GREAT BEND      11  42  25  40 /   0   0  30  40
SALINA           8  37  24  37 /   0   0  20  40
MCPHERSON        8  37  25  36 /   0   0  20  40
COFFEYVILLE      5  37  24  37 /   0   0   0  50
CHANUTE          4  35  23  37 /   0   0   0  50
IOLA             5  35  22  37 /   0   0   0  50
PARSONS-KPPF     8  36  23  37 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$