Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING SE
THROUGH KS DURING THE NIGHT. AS OF 2 AM THE LARGER OF THE 2 AREAS HAD
COVERED MOST OF EASTERN KS WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
THE 2ND AREA COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KS. A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED 700-MB
SHORTWAVE THAT IS SURGING E/SE TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BEEN THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CONVECTION. THE INCREASED ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
KS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN A REGION OF A VERY OCTANE ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S & 925-MB DEWPOINTS ~18C RESIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TODAY & TONIGHT:
AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. TONIGHT...A
2ND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER WY & CO TO ENABLE FRONT
RANGE SURFACE TROFFING TO BEGIN IN EARNEST & LIFT THE WARM FRONT DUE N
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF OUR
IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORHOOD TONIGHT.

WED-THU NIGHT:
AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SITUATED OVER WY & CO BEGINS TO MOVE E
IT WILL GET FORCED NE ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE DAKOTAS BY A LARGE STRONG
MID-UPPER HIGH COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TRANSLATION: HOT & HUMID
WEATHER WILL GRIP THE REGION THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

NEXT WEEKEND:
THE NE SURGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE LARGE STRONG
MID-UPPER HIGH COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY.
SPREADING SLOWLY W ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THE WESTWARD EXPANDING
MID-UPPER HIGH WOULD KEEP ALL OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD IN THE THROES OF HOT
& DRY WEATHER THRU AT LEAST SAT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A BROAD UPPER
TROF THAT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE ID/OR BORDER
MAY POSSESS ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT SE PERHAPS AS FAR
AS CENTRAL KS SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS VERIFIES THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ARRIVE LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL LOCATIONS.
DETECTING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS
HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN CWA.
AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS
WILL GO WITH IT...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER 06 UTC AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/CONVERGENCE ALONG 315 THETA SURFACE POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY TRAVERSING NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS SCANT...SO NOT WORTH
INTRODUCING CLOUDS LET ALONG THUNDER THREAT FOR KSLN.

ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND IS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  74  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      98  74  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          97  74  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        98  74  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         96  73  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      96  73  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
SALINA          98  74 100  77 /  10   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       97  73  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     99  74  99  75 /  20   0   0   0
CHANUTE         98  73  98  75 /  20   0  10   0
IOLA            98  73  98  75 /  20   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    99  74  99  75 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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