Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201108
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED TO INSERT FOG FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-135.

FOG DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT SOME OF IT WILL BE
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN ISOLD -SHRA IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BUT THE ISOLD NATURE
OBVIOUSLY DICTATES LEAVING "VCSH" OUT THE KCNU TERMINAL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS BUT NO MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE BUT SPEEDS WOULD BE <10KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  52  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      77  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          76  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        77  50  75  54 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  47  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      75  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          76  47  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  50  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  74  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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