Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Late this afternoon-tonight: Low level moisture continues to
increase across most of wrn KS, late this afternoon, with SBCAPE
values climbing into the 4500-5000 j/kg range.  Cap is almost gone
across central KS, but lack of good convergence or a focus for
development, will lead to an isolated-widely scattered storm chance
for late this afternoon/early this evening as afternoon heating
increases, with areas across central KS reaching the convective
temp.  With this much instability and bulk shear expected to be
around 40 kts, could certainly see some severe storms with supercell
structures given the NW flow aloft for good directional shear (SPC
has already issued a SVR watch box). If severe convection develops
to the W-NW of the forecast area, think propagation will drop this
convection south-southeast into portions of central KS. Think large
hail up to ping pong ball size and 65 mph winds are the main
concerns, as 0-1 km shear is minimal and LCL heights are fairly high
for a minimal/nil tornado chance.

Propagation vectors suggest that some of the convection may linger
into the late evening hours, possibly making it as far south as
KHUT, but as the convection drops south it will encounter a more
stable environment and increasing warm air aloft which will diminish
the storms the further south they go.  So think by 03-05z the
convection will be waning, with partly cloudy skies overnight, as
warmer air aloft ends any overnight storm chances.

Wed: Low level moisture will continue to remain high over wrn Ks
into north Central Ks on Wed, but a warmer elevated mixed layer will
lead to convection shifting a little further north-northwest into
north central KS.  Could see the same setup on Wed with severe
convection once again developing to the N-NW of the forecast area,
and the convection eventually propagating south-southeast into
central KS for the evening hours through the late evening hours,
before diminishing late Wed night.  Very similar bulk
shear/instability will lead to same the threats of large hail and
damaging winds.

Thu-Thu night: Low level moisture and an unstable airmass will again
be located across northern KS on Thu.  But the setup for Thu
afternoon/evening looks a little different as a mid level shortwave
will help push a cold front south into central KS.  The increased
convergence and mid level lift is expected to lead to a more
widespread shower/thunderstorm chance for Thu afternoon/night, as
the front makes steady progress south across central KS into south
central KS.  Could see some the showers and thunderstorms linger
well into Fri morning, as the front pushes into central and south
central KS.

Fri-Fri night: A little more uncertainty on how Fri will play
out, as the GFS is a little more progressive on the southward
movement of the boundary. GFS also keeps the tropical remnants of
Cindy further to the southeast into AR and sw MO. ECMWF on the
other hand, is slower with the southward progression of the front
with remnants of Cindy possibly pushing into portions of the
forecast area east of the Turnpike, with high precip water values.
For now will go with a solid chance pop for most of srn KS, but
could see pops increased dramatically if ECMWF is correct, with
the tropical remnants. Pops for Fri night could possibly increase
as well, if this scenario plays out.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Cooler drier air looks to push into the area for the weekend,
with the cold front pushing well south of the area. If the ECMWF
plays out, the cold front may push all the way into the Gulf coast
states. Canadian high pressure looks to build into the plains,
with cooler and drier air pushing south across the forecast area.
This may lead to min temps dropping into the middle 50s with max
temps on Sun in the middle 70s.



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Widely scattered strong to severe convection may move southeast
into parts of central Kansas this evening, mainly affecting the
KRSL and KGBD terminals. Otherwise, the diurnally driven storms
should quickly wane a couple hours after sunset. South winds will
prevail through Wednesday, becoming stronger and gusty again in
the afternoon.



Wichita-KICT    69  96  70  93 /  10   0  10   0
Hutchinson      70  95  70  94 /  20   0  20   0
Newton          69  94  69  92 /  20   0  10   0
ElDorado        68  92  69  90 /  10   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  94  69  91 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         71  98  71  97 /  50  10  30   0
Great Bend      71  97  70  96 /  40  10  30   0
Salina          71  97  72  96 /  30   0  20   0
McPherson       70  96  70  94 /  20   0  20   0
Coffeyville     66  92  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         67  91  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            67  91  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  92  68  90 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.