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000
FXUS63 KICT 100403
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1103 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Satellite trends have shown a clearing sky. With the moist
conditions and weak surface flow, believe patchy dense fog will
develop, especially with the added rainfall across much of the
area. Introduced this into the overnight and early morning
Thursday forecast. Remainder of the forecast looks on track at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Showers and storms that are lingering over east/central KS look
to be the result of 850-700mb moisture advection that will
continue this afternoon over at least eastern KS. Meanwhile,
surface based storm development is expected along a surface trough
from central Nebraska into far nw KS. This activity is expected
to try and work to the southeast this evening, potentially
impacting at least central KS. Also cant rule out at least some
iso activity just about anywhere tonight as mid level warm
advection remains with minimal capping.

Low level moisture will remain on the high side for Thu which will
lead to some better instability with the airmass remaining
uncapped. Not much in the way of surface focus for activity Thu
with upslope processes over the high Plains providing the most
likely forcing for development. There is strong model agreement in
widespread storms developing Thu evening as 850-700mb theta-e
advection and moisture transport really ramps up. In addition, a
decent upper jet looks to track across northern KS Thu night,
placing much of the forecast area in the right entrance region of
the jet. Even with meager instability, with increasing shear,
can`t rule out a strong/severe storm Thu night, however feel that
high rainfall rates and potential flooding will be the bigger
issue. This will mainly be due to an unseasonal high PW airmass
in place.

Bulk of the activity should be pushing south of the forecast area
for Fri with just some lingering sct activity over far southern
KS. Pattern looks to become active again Sat into Sat night as
both ECMWF and GFS agree on shortwave energy digging across the
northern Rockies and swinging into the northern Plains.

Even though higher dewpoints will continue to make it feel muggy,
confidence is high that afternoon maxes remain below seasonal
normals as they continue to top out in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

There is decent agreement between medium range models in some weak
ridging setting up over the Rockies/high Plains for Sun into Mon
with a shortwave trough anchored from the Great Lakes into the
Ohio Valley. The big question for our precip chances through these
periods will be how far south the baroclinc zone gets pushed. If
it hangs up over southern KS then we would likely continue at
least some sct storm chances. However, there are also model
solutions pushing the front down into OK which would greatly
diminish our precip chances. So with model differences will not go
too far yet in either direction. Confidence is much higher with
regards to temps, as they will remain well below seasonal
averages through these extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Overnight, there is a good chance of fog given all of the
rainfall and moisture present. There is a big lack of surface
flow. As a result, have introduced fog into the TAFs. This should
primarily occur from 8z to 13z. There are indications that local
1SM could be observed. Went conservative on that for the moment.
When the fog lifts, it could develop briefly into a low ceiling at
around 1200ft but that should be short lived.

Additional storms expected Thursday mainly during the afternoon
and evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  87  68  84 /  90  30  70  20
Hutchinson      64  86  66  83 /  90  20  60  20
Newton          66  85  66  82 /  90  30  60  20
ElDorado        66  85  67  83 /  90  40  60  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  68  84 /  90  40  70  30
Russell         63  84  63  84 /  40  20  40  10
Great Bend      65  85  65  84 /  80  20  50  20
Salina          65  86  66  85 /  80  20  40  10
McPherson       65  86  65  83 /  90  20  50  20
Coffeyville     68  85  68  84 /  70  60  60  40
Chanute         67  84  68  84 /  60  60  50  30
Iola            66  84  67  83 /  50  60  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    68  84  68  84 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRC
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KRC