739
FXUS63 KICT 062327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms late this afternoon into early evening across mainly
  southern KS with additional storms coming out of northwest KS
  tonight.

- Another round of storms coming off of the High Plains for Mon
night into Tuesday morning.

- Seasonal temperatures continue with above normal highs
  expected for Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy moving into the Southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, another upper impulse is
sliding across the Northern Plains. Weak cold front extends from
Central MO to near KICT and into southwest KS.

Storms are expected to continue to develop along the front this
afternoon and sag south into the early evening, mainly affecting
southern and southeast KS. Damaging downburst winds, small hail
and pockets of heavy rain will continue to be the main threats.
Additional convection is expected to develop over southwest
Nebraska/NW KS early this evening and slide east overnight. Not
sure how far east storms will make it as there is decent model
consensus that they start to wane as they approach the western
flank of our forecast area. So for now will run with the highest
pops west of I-135 tonight. Confidence is low with regards to
convection during the day Mon. Moisture isn`t going anywhere, so
we will remain very unstable with minimal capping. Feel the
best chance for daytime storms would be for them do develop
along some remnant outflow or just east of a remnant MCV from
storms tonight. With low confidence, will not hit pops too hard.
Better storm chances will arrive Mon night as a weak upper
impulse lifts out of Central Great Basin, across the Central
Rockies and out across the Central Plains by late Mon afternoon.
Storms should first develop over central/southern Nebraska
early Mon evening, and race south and southeast overnight,
affecting most of our area after 06z Tue. Damaging downburst
winds and hail up to nickel size look to be the main threats
with this complex of storms Mon night.

We may see a few storms linger Tuesday morning, especially across
eastern KS. However after Tue, we should see an overall
decrease in storm chances through Thu, as upper ridging builds
to our southwest. Storm chances will then ramp back-up starting
Thu night into Fri as a series of impulses track across the
Central Plains, with a more potent shortwave forecast to slide
across the Northern Plains Fri, and should push a front down
into our area.

Prior to Thursday, temps look fairly seasonal for this time of year,
with a slight bump in highs for Thu with mid and upper 90s a good
bet. There is a good chance we will see cooler highs for Fri and
especially Sat as the front pushes down into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers and thunderstorms that developed within the diffuse
boundary across southern Kansas will drift south early this
evening clearing KICT and KCNU by around 02Z or sooner. Other
storms drifting out of northern Kansas could impact parts of
central Kansas before diminishing but confidence in how long
this activity persists remains fairly low. More storms may
impact the area tomorrow night with VFR and light southeast
winds prevailing over the area on Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM