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000
FXUS63 KICT 240514
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TO HAVE A TIGHT GRIP ON TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MUCH BELOW TEMPS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEARING SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS THIS MORNING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO MINUS 5. COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE-WED: NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE
INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR
50 ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY THE WARMEST WE
WILL SEE THIS WEEK...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED EVENING/WED NIGHT. AS THIS FRONT
DROPS SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER TOP OF JUST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR MID LEVEL SATURATION TO
INCREASE.

ANOTHER VORTEX DIVING OUT OF MANITOIBA INTO ONTARIO WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHORT SAVE MOVING
ACROSS MIDWEST WILL SCOOT EASTWARD. SYNCING OF TWO SYSTEMS WILL
PROVIDE MODEST VERTICAL ASCENT...THUS WARRANTS MENTION OF LOW
CHANCE POPS.  THIS MID LEVEL SATURATION/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A TRANSIENT AREA OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW
FOR WED NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ALOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
TRANSIENT AREA OF SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS STAYING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THU MORNING.

ADK/SMF

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WHILE IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGNOSTICS THAT FAR OUT WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/ONSET AND PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS IS STILL RELATIVELY
LOW. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE IN THE
ORIENTATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. BETTER MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION/WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PRECIP TYPE/TRANSITION
FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AND WILL
MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE LOOKS TO
BE A NICE TAP OF MOISTURE...SO POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIP EVENT DOES EXIST TO SOME EXTENT THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    13  43  21  45 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      12  44  20  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          13  43  22  44 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        14  43  21  44 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  42  20  45 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      11  45  20  44 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          15  46  22  46 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       14  44  21  45 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     14  42  21  44 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  42  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            13  43  21  43 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    13  42  21  44 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$