Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211638
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP TRENDS AND AMOUNTS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROGRESS INLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.
SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK TO
MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH MODEST SHEAR AND LIFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AGAIN ON FRIDAY. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD FESTER
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE EMANATES
FROM THE MEAN SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROF AND MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL QPF
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SO LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO PONDER A POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE
ONCE AGAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW CLIMO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
AREA INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES REMAIN
IN THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WEST
AND ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME SEMBLANCE OF UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO HANG BACK OR REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST. THE MODELS
ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE REMAINING ENERGY BEING
KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL
MODERATING TREND WITH MAXS CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO IS STILL ON
TRACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS WILL VERY SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...WILL BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
PROCESS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL DRAW MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA...PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER...FIRST DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS...THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THIS RAIN ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
CEILINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 3000 FT AGL FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  50  62  54 /   0  30  80  60
HUTCHINSON      65  48  62  54 /  10  40  80  60
NEWTON          64  48  60  53 /   0  20  80  60
ELDORADO        65  48  62  54 /   0  20  80  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  49  62  54 /   0  20  80  60
RUSSELL         64  49  60  53 /  10  50  70  60
GREAT BEND      64  48  60  54 /  10  60  80  60
SALINA          66  48  62  54 /   0  20  70  60
MCPHERSON       64  48  61  53 /  10  30  80  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  49  64  54 /   0  10  60  50
CHANUTE         65  48  64  54 /   0  10  50  50
IOLA            65  48  64  54 /   0  10  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    66  50  64  55 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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