000
FXUS63 KICT 021622
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1022 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

FOG VISIBILITIES ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE ONE MILE IN MOST LOCALES BY 11 AM. SO
PLAN TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

MORNING DENSE FOG WILL BE A VERY SHORT TERM CONCERN... ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. COULD ACTUALLY SEE
THE DENSE FOG SPLIT THE ICT METRO AREA...AS WEAK SW WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME DRIER AIR ERODING THE FOG ALONG THE NW EDGE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF ICT. EXPECTING THIS FOG TO BE SLOW TO BURN OFF FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE INTO THIS AREA. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...THE REGION WILL SEE
A MILD DAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSHES TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON TUE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE AFTN. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
DIFFICULT AS ECMWF DELAYS THE FRONT UNTIL LATE TUE AFTN WHILE THE
GFS/NAM-WRF BRINGS IT THROUGH FASTER...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS FALLING TUE AFTN TEMPS FOR CEN KS.
SLOWER ARRIVAL WILL MEAN A LITTLE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS SRN KS DUE
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING.

ENJOY TODAY AND EARLY TUE...BECAUSE WINTER ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. EXPECT STRONG BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVE.

THE COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW AND COLD DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH FREEZING ACROSS CEN
KS...AND POSSIBLY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MIDDLE 30S IN SRN KS.
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS CEN
KS LATE WED NIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BY EARLY THU.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD AIR WILL
STICK AROUND FOR AN EXTENDED VISIT FOR THU INTO FRI AND FOR THAT
MATTER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU CHANCE OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASES OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. COLD NATURE OF THIS
AIRMASS WILL MAKE THIS A SLAM DUNK PRECIP TYPE FORECAST...WITH
PRECIP ALL SNOW. DO NOT SEE ALOT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOR BANDED SNOW TO DEVELOP AS WIDESPREAD LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MAIN
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION...FOR AN EXTENDED 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW. WITH THIS KIND OF DURATION...COULD CERTAINLY SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH SOLID 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL NUMBERS
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

RETURN FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
LIGHT SNOW CHANCE FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

UPDATED KICT & KCNU TERMINALS TO EXTEND LIFR CIGS & VSBYS TIL ~18Z
AS HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO DELAY EROSION TIL THAT
TIME. SITUATION BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. A FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS ONCE
AGAIN OVER PRIMARILY SE KS LATE TONIGHT (~06Z ONWARD). ANTICIPATE
ALL 5 TERMINALS TO BE VFR FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE THIS EVE
WITH KCNU THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION. THE 03/00Z TAF EDITION SHOULD
START TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  37  57  28 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      65  35  55  25 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          64  37  55  26 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        63  39  57  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  38  61  31 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         67  33  48  22 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      67  32  50  21 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          65  35  52  23 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       65  35  54  24 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  42  63  36 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         60  40  61  32 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            60  41  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  41  62  34 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ053-
069>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$