184
FXUS63 KICT 082347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and storm chances are expected through this
  evening.

- Additional on-and-off storm chances return Thursday night into
  early next week.

- Warming trend continues this week with a slight cool down
  expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Tuesday evening... Spotty scattered thunderstorms are possible into
the early evening as the upper-level ripple lifts out of the area.
This would mainly be in south-central to southeast Kansas where a
residual outflow boundary remains. Moisture is higher with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and instability is modest with over
2000 J/kg MUCAPE present. Given the relatively weak deep layer shear
and DCAPE values generally around 1200 J/kg, a few isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible. The main impacts would be wind
gusts up to 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall, and subsevere hail.

Wednesday into Thursday... As a ridge continues to build into the
area on Wednesday, this will lead to warm and dry conditions on
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will continue to rise,
reaching mid to upper 90s on Thursday.

Thursday evening into early next week... On-and-off storm chances
return Thursday evening as a cold front starts moving into the area.
As this front moves south during the day Friday, it is expected to
stall near the KS/OK border. This front coupled with multiple weak
ripples in the upper-level flow will lead to additional on-and-off
chances throughout the weekend into early next week. Modest
instability is expected providing opportunity for a few strong
thunderstorms. Relatively weak shear is forecast, though a few
severe storms cannot be ruled out this far out. The best chances for
showers and storms are expected to be in the afternoon to overnight
hours with the main impacts being strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall. Stay tuned as we refine this forecast.

Temperatures for Friday into early next week... High
temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 90s before the cold
front cools temperatures down slightly. Following the front,
weekend highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. As we
move into early next week, highs should be close to normal with
temperatures back in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR will prevail tonight although a few isolated storms are
drifting southward across the area this evening. This activity
is not expected to impact any of our TAF sites. Light winds and
VFR will prevail as we move into the day on Wed but we could see
some early morning storm activity try to drift into parts of
central KS. Confidence in where the storms develop and how
widespread they become remains too low to mention in TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM