Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 192348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
548 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING SNOW MELT...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM...SO TEMPERATURES WARMED UP TODAY QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. THAT SAID...DECIDED TO WARM THURSDAY READINGS A FEW
DEGREES...WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...FEEL
THE MODELS ARE OVER-SATURATING THE LOW-LEVELS...SO DESPITE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES AMIDST SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIR...IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE GREATEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FEEL THE ECMWF/GFS ARE
PROBABLY TOO AGGRESSIVE WARMING THE LOW-LEVELS DURING THIS
EVENT...SINCE SURFACE- BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS LIKELY TOO COLD.
CONSEQUENTLY...AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THINKING THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS GENERALLY EAST OF KINGMAN-
SALINA...AND NORTH OF KINGMAN- WICHITA-CHANUTE BETWEEN 5-10AM.
ALL-IN-ALL...MAJOR ICING IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT GLAZE
IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES...MAKING FOR
POTENTIALLY SLICK CONDITIONS. BY LATE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY WARM ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE (NOT
FREEZING) LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN KS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER EASTERN KS...AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOW-LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES. WARM/MOIST CONVEYER BELT AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY JUST BARELY SKIRT
SOUTHEAST KS...SO THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
(ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE) WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES)...AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM THE TURNPIKE ON NORTHWEST WILL
BE LUCKY TO SEE ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL (IF EVEN THAT)
THROUGH THIS WHOLE EVENT.

AFTER WARMER DAYTIME READINGS IN THE 50S SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A COOL
DOWN MAINLY INTO THE 40S IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. A WARMING TREND IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED BY MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THERE`LL BE EXCELLENT WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE 20/00Z EDITION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KS MIGRATES E...CROSSING THE MID MS
VALLEY ON THU. WINDS THAT ARE NLY LESS THAN 10KTS WILL BECOME LGT
ELY TONIGHT THEN SLY NEAR 10KTS ACROSS CNTRL & SC KS LATE THU
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FAIRLY QUIET FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...THINGS GET INTERESTING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION IN
WAKE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THINKING SOLID VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    22  47  29  45 /   0   0  20  30
HUTCHINSON      21  46  27  43 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          21  46  27  43 /   0   0  20  30
ELDORADO        22  46  29  46 /   0   0  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   23  48  32  50 /   0   0  20  30
RUSSELL         21  46  24  44 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      22  46  25  44 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          21  45  24  42 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       21  46  26  43 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     22  50  33  52 /   0   0  30  40
CHANUTE         20  47  30  47 /   0   0  20  40
IOLA            20  45  29  46 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    21  49  31  50 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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