000
FXUS63 KICT 011739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

REPORTS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE INCREASED SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE INCREASED COVERAGE AND EXPECTED DURATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON HAVE NECESSITATED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ADVANCE
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

TODAY:
OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
LIMIT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES DURING THE DAY...BUT IMPRESSIVE
850MB MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD DRIBBLE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
PRIOR TO 0000 UTC IN CENTRAL KS. TEMPERATURES RATHER
PROBLEMATIC... WITH ALL MODELS STRUGGLING WITH ONGOING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAXES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT 1300 UTC.

SAT NIGHT-SUN:
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN AS WAVE
APPROACHES. BOTH 0000 UTC GFS/NAM HINTED AT SOME SMALL ELEVATED
CAPE...MOSTLY OVER MARION/CHASE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. WHILE AREA
MAY NOT BE EXACT...DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE AT LEAST ONE
ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
RATES. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE HOWEVER COMPLICATED WITH MOST AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ALSO GETTING SLEET..WHICH WOULD CUT
INTO TOTALS. IN SOUTHEAST KS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE COLD
AIR CHANGES PRECIPITATION TO ICE PELLETS/SNOW. GLAZE COULD
APPROACH QUARTER INCH IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. IN ADDITION WIND
CHILLS WILL BE NEAR -15 IN CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO CONVERT
WATCH TO WARNING FOR MOST AREAS MAINLY BASED ON COMBO OF SNOW/
BLOWING SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. ON SUN...
BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
BY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEST UPPER LIFT HAS PASSED SO PRECIPITATION
INTENSITIES SHOULD DIMINISH.

SUN NIGHT-MON:
WITH INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE...CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUN NIGHT. GIVEN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING...DROPPED LOWS EVEN FURTHER...AND STILL MAY NOT
BE COLD ENOUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NEBRASKA THAT COULD SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL KS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MON. WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE ON MON WILL
SEE ONLY MODEST RECOVERY FROM VERY COLD LOWS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

HIGHLIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WINTRY WEATHER AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEGIN
TO BUILD AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BY TUESDAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO WARM INTO THE 30S...ALTHOUGH WARMING
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT/DEPTH OF SNOW COVER. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION WED-WED
NIGHT...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND
TEMPERATURES MARGINAL...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A BIG WEATHER-MAKER.
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW/MIXING INCREASES...THINKING THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S. HOWEVER...THE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT
LIVED...AS GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SWEEPS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ACROSS MID-AMERICA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS SCENARIO SOME...AND MODEL-
TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ALONG WITH GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO DEFINITELY NOT SET IN STONE
YET. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM CALIFORNIA
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY WINTER WEATHER TYPES BY LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25   6   9  -2 /  20  90  80  30
HUTCHINSON      21   4   7  -5 /  30  90  70  30
NEWTON          22   3   6  -5 /  20  90  70  30
ELDORADO        26   5   8  -3 /  20  90  90  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  10  13   0 /  20  80  90  40
RUSSELL         16   2   8  -9 /  50  80  50  20
GREAT BEND      17   3   8  -8 /  50  80  50  20
SALINA          20   2   6  -9 /  40 100  50  20
MCPHERSON       19   3   6  -8 /  30  90  60  30
COFFEYVILLE     37  14  16   0 /  20 100  80  60
CHANUTE         31   9  12  -3 /  20 100  90  60
IOLA            30   8  10  -5 /  20 100  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    35  12  14  -2 /  20 100  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR KSZ048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ048>053-067>070-082-083-091-092.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047.

&&

$$