Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231735
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM A TRACE TO A LITTLE MORE THAN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON
THURSDAY AND TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY OVER
KANSAS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE AND COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS ON FRIDAY WITH AN
EVEN MORE ROBUST SHOT OF COLDER AIR POSSIBLY ARRIVING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL AFFECT
DAYTIME HIGHS QUITE A BIT. YESTERDAY`S GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOWED
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS...HOWEVER THAT IS NOT THE CASE 24HRS LATER AS
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PRESENT. THE GFS
MODEL KEEPS THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND DRY FOR KANSAS WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS SYSTEM SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP
AFFECTING SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE GFS MODEL SEEM
TO BE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND SINCE THIS IS THE
FIRST MODEL RUN SHOWING A CHANGE WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AND MONITOR FUTURE RUNS BEFORE INSERTING PRECIP WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN USUALLY RESULTS IN A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR BEING DISLODGED AND FORCED SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THINKING CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR...ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ESPECIALLY SLN-RSL THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING SHOULD PREVENT ACCUMULATIONS ANY HIGHER THAN ONE-HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH AT SLN-RSL...WITH A TRACE TO ONE-HALF INCH
POSSIBLE AT ICT-HUT BY MIDNIGHT. CNU COULD SEE A TRACE TO ONE-HALF
INCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  28  39  27 /  30  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      38  27  39  25 /  70  50   0   0
NEWTON          39  28  38  26 /  50  50  10   0
ELDORADO        41  29  38  27 /  20  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  29  40  27 /  20  40  10   0
RUSSELL         34  24  40  24 /  80  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  25  40  25 /  80  30   0   0
SALINA          37  26  38  25 /  80  50   0   0
MCPHERSON       38  27  38  25 /  70  50   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     45  31  40  28 /  10  30  20   0
CHANUTE         43  30  39  28 /  10  30  20   0
IOLA            42  30  39  28 /  10  30  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  30  39  28 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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