Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The main forecast concern across the area remains the heat wave
that is impacting a good portion of the central CONUS. Due to heat
indices reaching at least the 105 mark yesterday across much of
the area and with even more oppressive heat on the way, the heat
advisory has been upgraded to an excessive heat warning across
most of the area through Friday evening, excluding Russell and
Barton counties where a heat advisory remains is in effect.

With the stubborn upper-level ridge continuing to impact the
central CONUS, expect the triple digits to linger across much of
the area through at least Saturday. Models are consistent with a
daily dose of south-southwest flow aloft advecting very warm and
dry air primary along and west of the Flint Hills. This warm air
aloft coupled with deep mixing each day will promote the highly
advertised fairly widespread triple digit temperatures through the
beginning of the weekend. Further east across southeast Kansas,
temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 90s to near 100
through Saturday. The combination of these above normal
temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s will allow
heat indices to range from 103 to 111 over the next few days.

Precipitation wise, have decreased chances across central Kansas
through Saturday with low confidence that storms will develop
given the extremely dry air and warm temps aloft. A frontal
boundary will begin to approach central Kansas late Saturday
night, but with model trends slowing the arrival of this front
boundary current thinking is that the best chances for
thunderstorm activity may hold off through the first half of the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

A "cool" down is in store with temperatures returning to near
normal for this time of year into next week as upper-level ridging
begins to flatten out across the central Plains. A frontal
boundary will slowly push south across the region beginning on
Sunday. Models are in agreement with this frontal boundary
attempting to stall out before lifting back northward through the
early portions of the work week. This coupled with good moisture
still in place will promote the potential for periodic
thunderstorms chances across the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

VFR will prevail across the area through the 24-hr period. Breezy
SSW winds will back to the SSE this evening while returning to the
SSW early on Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   102  79 103  77 /   0  10  10  10
Hutchinson     103  77 105  77 /   0  10  10  10
Newton         101  78 102  77 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        99  77 101  77 /   0  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD  101  77 102  77 /   0   0  10   0
Russell        106  75 105  77 /  10  20  20  20
Great Bend     105  76 105  77 /  10  20  20  20
Salina         106  79 106  79 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson      103  77 105  77 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     99  76  99  76 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         98  76  99  76 /   0   0  10   0
Iola            97  76  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    98  76  99  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ033-048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...MWM


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