000
FXUS63 KICT 272107
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS:
*ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WEDNESDAY.
*COOL DOWN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
*RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY.
*NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY-MID NEXT
WEEK.

AS OF THIS WRITING...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN
BROKEN AT WICHITA...SALINA AND RUSSELL...ALTHOUGH CHANUTE WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT. DETAILS WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

ANTICIPATING ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE-
WISE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
THINKING READINGS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY
28TH. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 15-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. STOUT NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS NEAR 50F
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER READINGS IN THE LOW- MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...AS DENSE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANTICIPATING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
--EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM PHASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF 800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
FOR SNOW...WITH READINGS SATURDAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...SO MANY
AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST SEE A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...FALLING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SUPPORT A CHANGE-OVER TO ALL
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ECMWF IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE SNOW
SCENARIO...WITH GFS WARMER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM.
STAY TUNED.

EASTERN NORTH AMERICA UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE SW
AND WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  73  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      40  73  39  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          42  71  39  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  73  39  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  74  41  51 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         37  72  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      36  73  37  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          41  71  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  71  39  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  73  42  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         40  72  40  49 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            40  71  40  48 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  73  41  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$