Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231757
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN
TX. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND DOWN INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
EAST OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER OK TODAY AND INTO THE OZARK REGION
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER TODAY AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL MO BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
SOME RAIN IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST. STRONG NW WINDS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO RUN WITH A LOWER END WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
MIXING...FEEL GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 30 MPH. RAIN WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KS
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AIRMASS TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD AT ALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND EVEN
LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR MON. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY SWING THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE GFS DIVING A PIECE OF ENERGY
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHEAST KS FOR TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER
THE PLAINS FOR WED INTO THU BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT AHEAD OF A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE. WHILE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH
THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY WINTRY EVENTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SOME POLAR AIR MAY TRY TO SPILL
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTS IN POLAR AIR MAKING IT
FURTHER SOUTH BY FRI MORNING COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE ECMWF DOES
HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT THE COLDER SOLUTION MAYBE CORRECT. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF TEMPS ARE DROPPED EVEN MORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL REACH ICT AROUND 20Z...AND CNU AROUND 00Z. AREAS OF
RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT....LIKELY
MOST WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SLN-ICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN VICINITY OF CNU WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY RESIDES...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO DID NOT MENTION IN
CNU TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW VFR ALL
SITES...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR SLN-CNU.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  30  49  26 /  60  50   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  29  50  23 /  70  10   0   0
NEWTON          57  29  48  25 /  60  60  10   0
ELDORADO        58  32  48  28 /  70  70  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  31  49  27 /  70  70   0   0
RUSSELL         50  27  49  22 /  60  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  28  50  24 /  60  10   0   0
SALINA          53  30  48  24 /  70  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       54  29  49  24 /  70  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  34  48  27 /  60  70  10   0
CHANUTE         62  31  46  24 /  60  70  10   0
IOLA            61  31  46  24 /  60  70  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    63  32  48  25 /  60  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-
050.

&&

$$



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